Fantasy
9/19/24
5 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Start, Sit Picks for NFL Week 3
Most fantasy managers won’t be afforded the luxury of being picky with their lineup choices in Week 3 with so many injured superstars throughout the NFL.
After all, having a shot at scoring any points is better than taking a zero.
But that doesn’t mean you should throw just any warm body into your lineup. Plenty of difficult decisions must be made based on matchups, early-season trends, and role potential.
Don’t let difficult circumstances dictate your actions.
Let’s dive into this list of the best starts and a few sit candidates to consider ahead of Week 3:
Week 3 Quarterback Starts:
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs DEN)
- Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (vs CHI)
- Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (vs HOU)
The Anthony Richardson experience wasn’t exactly a delightful one in Week 2.
Even though his three-interception performance against the Green Bay Packers was terrible, Richardson's ranking fifth among quarterbacks in rushing yards (93) in 2024 highlights why you’ve got him rostered in the first place.
He’s an athletic marvel with the threat of going off at any moment. Plus, Richardson is likely to get WR Josh Downs back in Week 3 after missing the opening of the year due to an ankle injury.
Adding another potentially impactful playmaker should provide enough juice to overcome a difficult matchup vs. the Chicago Bears (seventh in team defense DVOA, per FTN).
Keeping the conversation going in the NFC North, how about Sam Darnold's pleasant surprise so far this year?
One quality game against the New York Giants in the opener could’ve been a fluke, but the upset victory against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2 showcased why we should take the bridge quarterback seriously.
Darnold ranks 10th in fantasy points per game (17.3) in four-point per touchdown scoring and seventh in passer rating (111.8), according to FantasyData.
As difficult as this week’s matchup vs. the Houston Texans is (top five in team, pass, and rush defense DVOA in 2024), we’ve already seen Darnold defy the odds. Getting WR Jordan Addison back from a hip injury could be enough to help the signal-caller do it again.
As for Baker Mayfield, I discuss why I like him in lineups in my Week 3 positional rankings article. Give that a look over before you make any final decisions.
Week 3 Quarterback Sits:
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (@ PIT)
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ BUF)
- Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns (vs NYG)
So far, the Los Angeles Chargers are a reasonably good real-life football team. Unfortunately, that success comes at the cost of the fantasy viability of one of the league’s highest-paid quarterbacks.
According to NFELO, the Chargers’ offense ranks 30th in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) at -11 percent. That’s a rather hefty preference toward the run game, even for a system designed and executed by known ground-pounding offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
Consequently, despite being a real-life success (13th in passer rating, 95.7), Justin Herbert has been rendered useless for fantasy managers due to low passing volume. He’s only viable for Superflex managers.
Trevor Lawrence’s circumstance is outlined extensively in my Week 3 rankings piece, so we can conclude with Deshaun Watson.
If you've read these articles since the beginning of the season, you know that rushing quarterbacks are an archetype I trust. That is, for the most part, a correct read.
However, not every athletic runner is enough of a threat with their legs to overcome certain passing deficiencies — Watson is a fine example.
Despite ranking ninth among quarterbacks in rushing yards to date, his 63.0 passer rating ranks 32nd. Watson also leads an offense that ranks fifth-worst in total offensive yards (527).
There’s no reason even to consider him in your lineup.
Week 3 Running Back Starts:
- Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders (@ CIN)
- Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (@ DAL)
- Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (vs GB)
Brian Robinson Jr. fell into the middle rounds of fantasy drafts because he’s in a new offense under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Plus, the team signed veteran Austin Ekeler this offseason.
Still, if you took the plunge and selected the former Alabama standout, you are being rewarded through two weeks.
Robinson Jr. occupies a 72.7 percent opportunity share of the backfield touches and ranks 15th among his fellow runners in point-per-reception (PPR) points per game with 16.2. That’s the kind of volume that should lead to great success in Week 3 vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.
Based on early information, Derrick Henry, a fellow ex-Crimson Tide runner, is in a slightly more complicated situation, but there’s no reason to be concerned this week.
Yes, the Baltimore Ravens have tended to shift responsibilities to Justice Hill whenever they’re playing in a negative game script. That reality limited Henry in the team’s first game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Still, Sunday’s matchup vs. the Dallas Cowboys puts the bruiser up against a cakewalk unit that ranks second-lowest in run defense DVOA in 2024.
It’s unlikely any manager contemplated sitting Henry this week, but this is just a reminder not to be nervous based on limited results. They still call him King Henry for a reason.
As for Henry’s former team, the Tennessee Titans are in good hands with Tony Pollard. The veteran belongs to a group of just 17 running backs this season with an opportunity share north of 70 percent, per FantasyData.
Holding off a talented guy like Tyjae Spears for touches is no easy feat. Keep trusting Pollard.
Week 3 Running Back Sits:
- Any Kansas City Chiefs RB
- D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (@ IND)
- Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers (@ PIT)
One of Samaje Perine, Carson Steele, or even Kareem Hunt will eventually emerge as the best running back to roster and start from the Chiefs. The issue is that we really don’t have any idea which one it will be.
Past seasons have given us plenty of examples of guys lower on this depth chart stepping up in crucial roles following injury, like the efforts of Jerick McKinnon in 2022 or Damien Williams when the franchise won their first Super Bowl of the Patrick Mahomes era in 2019.
Until we see what coach Andy Reid has in mind, fantasy managers should wait to start any of them. After all, the last thing anyone wants to do is put someone in their lineup who accomplishes little with limited opportunities.
Unfortunately, that’s what happened to anyone who has started D’Andre Swift and Gus Edwards so far.
Despite seeing an almost identical number of touches (30) as his teammate J.K. Dobbins (31), Edwards has gained 183 fewer scrimmage yards and only averages 4.8 PPR points per game.
It’s even worse for Swift. He has a 73.3 percent share of his backfield’s workload and 6.6 PPR points per game to show for his efforts.
This duo is fading fast and rapidly approaching drop territory.
Week 3 Wide Receiver Starts:
- Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (vs PHI)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks (vs MIA)
- Andre Iosivas, Cincinnati Bengals (vs WAS)
The Saints’ offense has been so dominant to open this year that the team has abandoned the pass to salt away their gargantuan leads.
By virtue of this dominance, players like Chris Olave must get their work in before an insurmountable point differential is established. This reality has limited the third-year deep threat to just 8.0 PPR points per game to open 2024. Still, he carries a 21.1 percent target share in the offense — he hasn't been forgotten.
Patience with Olave will soon pay off in Week 3, given he’ll go up against a Philadelphia Eagles secondary that ranks eighth-worst in pass defense DVOA.
Through two games, second-year wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba is outpacing teammate Tyler Lockett in route participation with a 96 percent clip and is coming off a tremendous 12 reception, 117-yard performance against the New England Patriots.
Staying on this hot streak in Week 3 in a prime matchup against the Miami Dolphins (second-worst pass defense DVOA) feels like a smart choice for fantasy managers.
Another smart choice is starting any pass-catcher against the Washington Commanders.
That defense is the league's worst in endless statistical categories, which, if outlined in full, would push the word count of this article to an uncomfortable length.
Should Tee Higgins miss time again while nursing his hamstring injury, my favorite dart throw of the week is his teammate Andre Iosivas. He’s already scored twice this season, and frankly, the vibes are just too good to pass up.
Week 3 Wide Receiver Sits:
- Tank Dell, Houston Texans (@ MIN)
- Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (@ TB)
- Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys (vs BAL)
The undersized Tank Dell appears to be the odd man out in Houston based on early results.
Though the second-year speedster paces his teammate Nico Collins in route participation (93.8 percent), Dell only appears on the field for 63.4 percent of the Texans’ offensive snaps.
This information tells us that fantasy managers are relying heavily upon Dell’s per-touch efficiency.
Starting an efficiency-dependent wideout against the league’s second-toughest pass defense, per FTN’s DVOA metrics, is a precarious proposition. It’s best to avoid Dell in Week 3.
In an effort to hammer at the concept of avoiding inefficiency, let’s look at Courtland Sutton.
Here’s a player who leads his team in target share (21.9 percent) yet is only turning his opportunities into 0.7 fantasy points per touch, according to FantasyData. That’s the kind of factoid that might make you question why you drafted Sutton in the first place.
Just go ahead and forget about him; heck, include Brandin Cooks, too.
It appears as though the veteran may be losing ground to teammate Jalen Tolbert after receiving just two targets in Week 2’s loss vs. the Saints.
It’s too soon to tell what will happen with that WR2 “battle,” but the fact that it’s even up in the air leads me to believe it’s best to trust only CeeDee Lamb in this offense for now.
Week 3 Tight End Starts:
- Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders (@ CIN)
- Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals (vs WAS)
- Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (vs JAC)
The Commanders’ passing game has yet to elevate, but Zach Ertz is marking a 72.4 percent snap share and a 15.1 percent target share of passes coming from QB Jayden Daniels.
The former fantasy superstar is carving out a role despite being 33 and the presence of talented rookie Ben Sinnott. As long as he continues to stay involved on the field, he’s worth a speculative start.
Getting a read on Mike Gesicki is a bit of a tougher task, however.
On one hand, the former Dolphins pass-catcher has only appeared on 35.3 percent of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps, according to FantasyData, because he’s not a strong pass-blocker.
However, that hasn’t stopped him from seeing 13 targets and recording 109 receiving yards in the first two games of 2024.
Given the barren wasteland that is the tight end position in fantasy football, Gesicki’s part-time contributions might be just enough to finish as a TE1 in Week 3.
I could continue preaching patience about Dalton Kincaid, who is running a 100 percent route participation rate, but that feels like beating a dead horse at this point.
Just trust me on this one.
Week 3 Tight End Sits:
- Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans (vs GB)
- Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers (@ TEN)
Nitpicking through bad fantasy tight ends is a low-hanging fruit activity through just two weekends of regular season play.
So, instead of focusing on the negative, let’s close by talking about a couple of athletes who shouldn’t be trusted yet, but each has reasons to be on your bench.
Chig Okonkwo leads all tight ends in fantasy points per touch (4.8), according to FantasyData.
Sure, that measure is heavily skewed because he’s only seen five targets and caught a touchdown in Week 1. However, he’s still the de facto second target in the Titans’ offense as long as WR DeAndre Hopkins struggles with his nagging MCL injury.
As for Tucker Kraft, he’s dominating teammate Luke Musgrave in snap share (95.5 percent) and stands a decent chance at fantasy relevance once QB Jordan Love can return from his knee injury sustained in the season opener in Brazil.
The usage isn’t there yet for Kraft, but the role certainly is.
