Analysis
11/14/22
10 min read
Fantasy Football NFL Week 10: Five Things We Learned
Welcome to Five Things We Learned! Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com unless otherwise stated.
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No. 1: Kadarius Toney has WR1 Potential
- Second-year wide receiver and Week 8 trade acquisition Kadarius Toney produced his first big-time showing as a Kansas City Chief this week. He caught four-of-five targets for 57 yards receiving, and one touchdown while adding two carries for 33 yards rushing. He has league-winning upside.
- Fifth-year wide receiver Mecole Hardman had been enjoying a breakout campaign, averaging 18.27 PPR points per game in Weeks 5-9, but was unable to play in Week 10 due to an abdomen injury. Per Adam Hutchison's Injury Index, wide receivers average 5.1 games missed with the ailment. Hardman's abdomen issue may not be serious, but it is likely to sideline him for more than one game.
- Fellow wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster started hot, catching two-of-three targets for 33 yards receiving before suffering a concussion that forced him from the game.
- The table below shows all Kansas City wide receivers and tight ends who have earned at least two targets in Week 10. The running backs are discussed in the section below. "GZ" refers to the green zone (i.e., plays between the opponent's 10-yard-line and the end zone).
| Kansas City Pass Catchers, Week 10 | Rec./Tgt. - Yards Rec. - TD | Routes Run - Target % per RR - Yards per RR | Yards After Catch per Rec. - Air Yards per Tgt. | Red Zone Routes - RZ Tgt. - Green Zone Routes - GZ Tgt. | PPR Points |
| TE Travis Kelce | 6/7 - 81 - 1 | 31 - 22.6% - 2.61 | 6.50 - 6.86 | 4 - 1 - 2 - 1 | 20.10 |
| WR Kadarius Toney | 4/5 - 57 - 1 | 17 - 29.4% - 3.35 | 7.75 - 7.00 | 2 - 1 - 1 - 1 | 19.00 |
| WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3/4 - 60 - 1 | 34 - 11.8% - 1.76 | 1.33 - 17.50 | 3 - 1 - 1 - 0 | 15.00 |
| WR JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2/4 - 33 - 0 | 16 - 25.0% - 2.06 | 1.50 - 11.50 | 2 - 0 - 1 - 0 | 5.30 |
| TE Noah Gray | 2/2 - 20 - 1 | 13 - 15.4% - 1.54 | 2.50 - 7.50 | 3 -1 - 1 - 0 | 10.00 |
- Among NFL wide receivers with at least five targets in Week 10, Toney's 29.4% targets per route run rate ranked 12th overall, and his 3.35 yards per route run ranked sixth.
- Toney ran exactly half as many routes as Marquez Valdes-Scantling, yet more than doubled Valdes-Scantling's 11.8% targets per route run rate.
- It is not hyperbolic to suggest Toney's ceiling is as an elite fantasy football WR for the rest of the season. Both Toney's target-earning ability and his yardage-gaining efficiency are top-tier. Plus, the Kansas City offense is helmed by Patrick Mahomes, the greatest quarterback in the game today.
- Kansas City will be without Smith-Schuster and Hardman for an indeterminate amount of time, likely giving Toney another opportunity to solidify himself as a full-time player and potentially the next great Kansas City wide receiver.
- Valdes-Scantling will continue operating as the team's field stretcher for the time being.
- Among NFL tight ends with at least 25 targets, Travis Kelce's 20.83 PPR points per game lead the position by a 5.64-point margin.
- Backup tight end Noah Gray's efficiency makes him an elite tight-end bench stash.
No. 2: Kansas City Has a Two-Man Backfield
- Seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco is the team's primary rusher, who factors into the early-down passing offense, and veteran Jerick McKinnon is the primary passing-down back.
- The last vestiges of a weekly workload for Clyde Edwards-Helaire came in the green zone this week. While a great place to be on the field, Edwards-Helaire is just a bench stash.
- The table below shows Kansas City's backfield data following the team's Week 8 bye. "3/4-&-L" refers to third and fourth down with three or more yards to go. "GZ" refers to the green zone (i.e., plays between the opponent's 10-yard-line and the end zone).
| Kansas City RBs in Week 10 | Snaps: Total - 3/4-&-L - 2-min. Drill - GZ | Rush Att. - Yards per Rush Att. - Yards After Contact per Rush Att. | Routes Run - Target % per RR - Yards per RR | PPR Points per Game |
| Isiah Pacheco | 35 - 1 - 2 - 1 | 16 - 5.13 - 3.56 | 16 - 0.0% - 0.00 | 6.20 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 23 - 7 - 6 - 0 | 1 - 2.00 - 2.00 | 19 - 42.1% - 2.95 | 11.80 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 4 - 0 - 0 - 2 | 0 - 0.00 - 0.00 | 3 - 66.7% - 0.00 | 0.00 |
- Pacheco's 16 routes run were a career-high
| Kansas City RBs in Week 10 | Snaps: Total - 3/4-&-L - 2-min. Drill - GZ | Rush Att. - Yards per Rush Att. - Yards After Contact per Rush Att. | Routes Run - Target % per RR - Yards per RR | PPR Points per Game |
| Isiah Pacheco | 20 - 0 - 0 - 1 | 5 - 1.00 - 1.00 | 14 - 7.1% - 0.29 | 1.90 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 57 - 12 - 15 - 1 | 3 - 1.33 - 0.67 | 50 - 16.0% - 0.80 | 10.40 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 14 - 1 - 1 - 1 | 4 - 1.25 - 1.25 | 10 - 20.0% - 1.40 | 2.90 |
- Pacheco's 3.56 yards after contact per rush attempt was fifth-best among NFL RBs with at least 10 rush attempts in Week 10.
- Kansas City faces division rival Los Angeles Chargers next week. Los Angeles is the NFL's worst run defense, currently allowing 5.5 yards rushing per carry to opposing rushers. Pacheco should garner a borderline top-24 ranking against them.
- McKinnon's 23.2% targets per route run rate during the last two weeks ranks No. 12 among NFL running backs with at least five targets, and his 1.39 yards per route run ranks eighth. McKinnon will be frequently called upon in what should be next week's highest-totaled game against Los Angeles.
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No. 3: Bears New-Look Offense Not a Fluke
- Chicago Bears coach Matt Eberflus switched up the playbook in Week 6, adding more play-action passes and featuring quarterback Justin Fields as a rusher. The offense, particularly the passing game components, has thrived as a result.
- The table below ranks Chicago's offense, in parentheses, among NFL teams.
| Chicago Bears | Total Yards Off. per Game | Yards Passing per Game | Yards Rushing per Game | Off. Points per Game |
| Weeks 1-5 | 274.0 (No. 31) | 116.6 (No. 32) | 157.4 (No. 5) | 17.20 (T-No. 26) |
| Weeks 6-10 | 385.6 (No. 6) | 139.6 (No. 31) | 246.0 (No. 1) | 25.50 (No. 7) |
- The table below ranks Fields, in parentheses, among NFL quarterbacks.
| Justin Fields | Dropbacks per Game: Total - Play-Action | Rush Att. per Game | Fantasy Points per Game |
| Weeks 1-5 | 26.00 (No. 28) - 7.60 (No. 24) | 8.40 (No. 3) | 10.91 (No. 30) |
| Weeks 6-10 | 32.40 (No. 21) - 12.00 (No. 6) | 12.40 (No. 1) | 29.98 (No. 1) |
- The table below ranks wide receiver Darnell Mooney, in parentheses, among NFL wide receivers with at least 10 targets in Weeks 1-5 and Weeks 6-10.
| Darnell Mooney | Per Routes Run: Target % - Yards | PPR Points per Game |
| Weeks 1-5 | 17.2% (No. 71) - 1.42 (No. 63) | 5.46 (T-No. 83) |
| Weeks 6-10 | 32.3% (No. 25) - 1.93 (No. 27) | 12.26 (No. 31) |
- The table below ranks tight end Cole Kmet, in parentheses, among NFL tight ends with at least 10 targets in Weeks 1-10. Kmet has made serious improvements in Weeks 9-10, so it's important to note the spike in the data during just that period too.
| Cole Kmet | Per Routes Run: Target % - Yards | Fantasy PPR Points per Game |
| Weeks 1-5 | 11.00% (No. 43) - 0.93 (T-No. 33) | 3.82 (No. 31) |
| Weeks 6-10 | 16.1% (No. 28) - 1.41 (No. 19) | 12.44 (No. 4) |
| Weeks 9-10 | 26.5% (No. 2) - 2.35 (No. 2) | 22.70 (No. 1) |
- Chicago's primary passing-game trio is fantasy-relevant on a weekly basis now. Both Fields and Kmet look like imminent league winners.
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No. 4: Rachaad White Could Start Moving Forward
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers third-round rookie running back Rachaad White started over veteran Leonard Fournette in Week 10. A hip injury knocked Fournette out of the game with just over 21-minutes left in the game.
- Tampa Bay is on bye in Week 10.
- The tables below show Tampa Bay's backfield production both pre-and post-Fournette injury in Week 10 and the two games prior. "3/4-&-L" refers to third and fourth down with three or more yards to go. "GZ" refers to the green zone (i.e., plays between the opponent's 10-yard-line and the end zone).
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers RBs in Week 10 | Snaps: Total - 3/4-&-L - 2-min. Drill - GZ | Rush Att. - Yards per Rush Att. - Yards After Contact per Rush Att. | Per Routes Run: Target % - Yards | PPR Points per Game |
| Leonard Fournette Pre-Injury, Week 10 | 21 - 1 - 0 - 2 | 14 - 4.07 - 2.64 | 16.7% - 0.17 | 10.80 |
| Rachaad White Pre-Injury, Week 10 | 25 - 4 - 4 - 0 | 10 - 3.30 - 2.10 | 0.0% - 0.00 | 3.30 |
| Rachaad White Post-Injury, Week 10 | 20 - 2 - N/A - 3 | 11 - 6.55 - 3.36 | 0.0% - 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn Pre-Injury, Week 10 | 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 | 0 - 0.00 - 0.00 | 0.0% - 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn Post-Injury, Week 10 | 5 - 1 - N/A - 0 | 2 - 1.00 - 3.00 | 33.3% - 3.67 | 1.30 |
| Leonard Fournette in Weeks 8-9 | 47.00 - 10.00 - 15.00 - 6.50 | 9.00 - 2.39 - 1.72 | 34.50 - 14.5% - 1.09 | 12.90 |
| Rachaad White in Weeks 8-9 | 22.00 - 3.50 - 0.50 - 1.50 | 6.00 - 3.83 - 2.83 | 12.00 - 25.0% - 1.29 | 6.85 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn in Weeks 8-9 | 1.50 - 0.50 - 0.00 - 0.00 | 1.00 - 2.00 - 3.50 | 0.50 - 100.0% - 0.00 | 0.20 |
- Per Adam Hutchison's Injury Index, running backs average 1.8 missed games due to non-specific hip injuries, indicating Fournette is unlikely to play immediately following Tampa Bay's Week 11 bye.
- As mentioned above, White got the start this week, which could indicate the starting role is his job to lose. In Weeks 8 and 9, White was an efficient rusher after contact and as a receiver.
- White maintained an edge over Ke'Shawn Vaughn in third-and fourth-and-long situations, but Vaughn was an immediate passing-game factor after Fournette's exit. White will have the opportunity to solidify himself as the team's starter during the bye, but Vaughn will likely leech away some points-per-reception value.
- White had importantly moved ahead of Fournette in the green-zone role before Fournette's hip injury.
- Tampa Bay plays the Cleveland Browns in Week 12 and the New Orleans Saints in Week 13. Cleveland's defense allows 4.80 yards rushing per carry, which is seventh most in the NFL, and New Orleans' defense allows 4.60 yards rushing per carry, which is 13th.
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No. 5: Rookie Watson is Rodgers' New No. 1 WR
- In the leadup to Week 10, Green Bay Packers second-round rookie Christian Watson found himself free of the injury report for the first time since Week 5.
- The 6-foot-5-inch, 208-pound 23-year-old has been slowed by repeated hamstring strains and a midseason concussion.
- With fellow rookie Romeo Doubs (high-ankle sprain) out indefinitely and veteran Allen Lazard playing through a shoulder injury, Watson delivered a breakout performance, catching four-of-eight targets for 107 yards receiving and three touchdowns.
- The table below ranks Watson's Week 10 results in parentheses among NFL wide receivers with at least five targets.
| NFL WR Data in Week 10 | Per Routes Run: Target % - Yards | Yards After Catch per Rec. - Air Yards per Target | Rec. First-Down Gained | PPR Points |
| Christian Watson | 38.1% (No. 1) - 5.10 (No. 1) | 6.50 (No. 9) - 20.50 (No. 2) | 4 (T-No. 10) | 32.70 (No. 3) |
- Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been calling for a wide receiver to separate from the pack, and Watson did just that against the vaunted Dallas Cowboys defense.
- Before Week 10, Dallas' 9.62 yards receiving per reception allowed were the third-fewest in the NFL.
- Moving forward, Watson should retain the No. 1 role over Lazard, even after Lazard returns to full health.
- Lazard has never profiled as a No. 1 wide receiver. Before 2022, Lazard had failed to earn better than a 17.9% targets per route run rate, which is easily at least 5.0% below a potential No. 1 wide receiver threshold.
- Before this season, Lazard's career best of 1.75 yards per route run is 0.25 less than desirable as well.
- Lazard currently owns just a 20.5% targets per route run rate and is averaging 1.76 yards per route run. He is an NFL-caliber No. 2 wide receiver.
- After a performance like this, there is reason to believe Watson can operate as a bonafide No. 1.
WATCH MORE: Week 10 Fantasy Recap
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