Analysis
11/28/22
9 min read
Fantasy Football NFL Week 12: Five Things We Learned
Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
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No. 1: Swift Resumes Passing-Down Role
- Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift suffered ankle and shoulder injuries early in the year, forcing him to miss Weeks 4-7. His passing-down workload struck a volatile frequency upon his return. During the last two weeks, Swift was behind both Jamaal Williams and Justin Jackson in pure passing-down situations.
- However, Swift excitingly resumed No. 1 passing-down duties in Week 12.
- The table below shows Detroit's backfield snaps in football's passing-down situations. "3rd/4th-&-Long" refers to third- and fourth-down and long situations. "2-Min. Drill" refers to the two-minute drill.
| Detroit RBs - Passing Downs | Weeks 10-11 3rd/4th-&-Long Snaps | Weeks 10-11 2-Min. Drill Snaps | Week 12 3rd/4th-&-Long Snaps | Week 12 2-Min. Drill Snaps |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Jamaal Williams | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| Justin Jackson | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
- As shown in the table below, Swift maintained an early-down pass-catching role with moderate receiving efficiency in Weeks 10 and 11. His Week 12 usage unlocks his ceiling moving forward.
- "Targets % per" refers to targets per route run rate. "Yards % per" Refers to yards per route run rate.
| Detroit RB Routes Run & Receiving Efficiency | Weeks 10-11 Routes Run - Targets % per - Yards % per | Week 12 Routes Run - Target % per - Yards % per |
| D'Andre Swift | 18 - 33.3% - 1.00 | 14 - 57.1% - 1.71 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 - 0.0% - 0.00 | 11 - 18.2% - 1.36 |
| Justin Jackson | 19 - 21.1% - 1.32 | 5 - 0.0% - 0.00 |
No. 2: Giants WR Room Set?
- Many Giants WRs have been injured this season. Most recently, breakout rookie Wan'Dale Robinson suffered a torn ACL in Week 11.
- Despite repeated attempts to force production from veteran Kenny Golladay, wide receivers Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James are emerging as New York's starting trio.
- James is the direct replacement for Robinson.
- Hodgins, now in his third season, spent 2020 and 2021 working under then-offensive coordinator Brian Daboll with the Bills. Buffalo waived Hodgins on Nov. 1, and New York signed Hodgins to a one-year deal on Nov. 2.
- The table below shows both the fantasy and real-life production of the aforementioned wide receivers, contextualized by their per-route efficiency rates, in Weeks 11 and 12. "AY/Tgt" refers to the air yards per target (the distance the ball travels between the line of scrimmage and the intended receiver). "YAC/Rec." refers to a player's average yards receiving after the catch per reception.
| NYG WR Production & Efficiency in Weeks 11-12 | Routes Run - AY/Tgt.- YAC/Rec. | Per Routes Run: Targets % - Yards % | Rec./Tgt. - Yards Rec. - TD | Fantasy PPR Points per Game |
| Darius Slayton | 72 - 12.75 - 5.13 | 22.2% - 2.07 | 8/16 - 149 - 0 | 11.45 |
| Richie James | 44 - 6.56 - 4.13 | 20.5% - 2.02 | 8/9 - 89 - 2 | 14.45 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 53 - 10.00 - 0.33 | 13.2% - 1.13 | 6/7 - 60 - 0 | 5.00 |
| Kenny Golladay | 32 - 13.50 - 1.00 | 6.3% - 0.91 | 2/2 - 29 - 0 | 2.45 |
- The table below shows the New York wide receivers' pre-snap alignment rates in Weeks 11 and 12.
| NYG WR Pre-Snap Alignment in Weeks 11-12 | Out-Wide % - Total Snaps | Slot % - Total Snaps |
| Darius Slayton | 59.3% - 67 | 39.8% - 45 |
| Richie James | 23.2% - 13 | 76.8% - 43 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 85.5% - 71 | 14.5% - 12 |
| Kenny Golladay | 79.6% - 39 | 20.4% - 10 |
- Golladay is insignificant.
- Slayton and James should be rostered in eight-to-twelve-team formats. Hodgins can be added in leagues with 12 or more teams.
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No. 3: Edwards Returns as Ravens' No. 1 RB
- Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards returned from a three-game, injury-induced (hamstring/knee) absence to a featured role as the team's No. 1 running back.
- Kenyan Drake played well in Edwards' absence and was surprisingly relegated to a part-time passing-down role.
- The table below shows Baltimore's Week 12 backfield usage and results. "RZ" refers to the red zone (inside the opponent's 20-yard line). "GZ" refers to the green zone (inside the opponent's 10-yard line).
| BAL RB Usage & Results in Week 12 | Total Snaps - 3rd/4th-&-L - 2-Min. Drill - RZ - GZ | Rush Att. - Yards Rush. - TD - Fum. | Routes Run: Targets per % - Yards per % | Fantasy PPR Points |
| Gus Edwards | 18 - 0 - 0 - 3 - 2 | 16 - 52 - 1 - 1 | 4 - 25.0% - 0.00 | 9.20 |
| Kenyan Drake | 15 - 2 - 0 - 4 - 0 | 2 - 2 - 0 - 0 | 9 - 11.1% - 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Justice Hill | 11 - 4 - 1 - 5 - 4 | 1 - 3 - 0 - 0 | 5 - 0.0% - 0.00% | 0.30 |
- Edwards's 25.0% targets per route run rate indicates target-earning ability, possibly leading to passing-down work in the near future. His 2.31 yards after contact per rush attempt led the backfield by a 0.31-yard margin.
- Justice Hill was terribly inefficient, so his role in scoring positions should be reduced.
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No. 4: Wilson Has a Complicated Fantasy Football Profile
- New York Jets rookie Garrett Wilson has been inconsistent, but the last five weeks imply a top-24 floor and a top-12 ceiling.
- The table below ranks Wilson's receiving data and fantasy production in parentheses among wide receivers with at least 50 targets.
| NFL WR Receiving Data | Per Routes Run: Targets % - Yards % | Yards per Rec. | AY/Tgt. - YAC/Rec. | Fantasy PPR Points per Game |
| Garrett Wilson | 23.9% (No. 17) - 1.90 (No. 20) | 12.82 (No. 29) | 8.13 (No. 48) - 5.41 (No. 10) | 12.38 (No. 31) |
- From a season-long perspective, Wilson has a promising points-per-reception (PPR) WR3 profile.
- During the last five weeks, accounting for New York's Week 10 bye week, Wilson has turned in three high-scoring PPR performances resulting in 16.25 PPR points per game. That is 17th among wide receivers with at least 20 targets during that span.
- Wilson's agonizing Week 11 results (3.20 PPR points) unfairly mar his points per game average, as the poor showing can be directly tied to quarterback Zach Wilson's job-losing performance.
- After Zach Wilson mustered a scoreless 77 yards passing and 26 yards rushing in Week 11, coach Robert Saleh replaced him with No. 2 quarterback Mike White. Wilson, the wide receiver, parlayed his Week 12 pairing with White into the second-best fantasy-outing of his career (26.40 PPR points).
- White's 11.25 yards passing per attempt and 149.3 passer rating both led the league in Week 12.
- The table below ranks Wilson's Weeks 8-12 receiving and fantasy data in parentheses among wide receivers with at least 15 targets during that span.
- The table includes Wilson's data with and without Zach Wilson's Week 11 meltdown. The two data sets are shown to better illustrate Wilson's true potential while also communicating his perceived value.
| Garrett Wilson | Per Routes Run: Targets % - Yards | Yards per Rec. | AY/Tgt.- YAC/Rec. | Fantasy PPR Points per Game |
| Weeks 8-12 | 21.3% (No. 32) - 2.47 (No. 14) | 14.95 (No. 16) | 7.96 (No. 56) - 7.33 (No. 5) | 16.25 (No. 17) |
| Weeks 8, 9, 10 & 12 | 24.5% (No. 19) - 3.08 (No. 4) | 15.89 (No. 11) | 7.75 (No. 49) - 7.68 (No. 7) | 20.60 (No. 6) |
- With the newfound stability brought on by White, Wilson has a chance to close the season as a matchup-proof fantasy wide receiver.
No. 5: Jets RB Carter Exits With Ankle Sprain
- New York Jets lead running back Michael Carter exited Sunday's 31-10 win against the Chicago Bears with just more than 27 minutes left in regulation due to an ankle sprain of unknown severity.
- New York was employing a three-running-back rotation featuring Carter, rookie Zonovan "Bam" Knight and veteran Ty Johnson.
- Recent trade-acquisition James Robinson was a healthy inactive.
- The table below compares New York's running back deployment and results before Carter's injury.
| NYJ RBs Pre-Carter Injury | Total Snaps - 3rd/4th-&-L - 2-Min. Drill - RZ - GZ | Rush Att. - Yards Rush. - TD - Fum. | Routes Run: Targets per % - Yards per % | Rec./Tgt. - Yards Rec. - TD |
| Michael Carter | 15 - 1 - 4 - 1 - 1 | 5 - 15 - 0 - 0 | 22.2% - 1.67 | 2/2 - 15 - 0 |
| Zonovan Knight | 12 - 0 - 3 - 2 - 2 | 4 - 15 - 0 - 0 | 16.7% - 2.67 | 1/1 - 16 - 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 8 - 7 - 1 - 1 - 1 | 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 | 14.3% - 2.29 | 1/1 - 16 - 0 |
- The table below compares New York's running back deployment and results after Carter's injury.
| NYJ RBs Pre-Carter Injury | Total Snaps - 3/4-&-L - 2-Min. Drill - RZ - GZ | Rush Att. - Yards Rush. - TD - Fum. | Routes Run: Targets per % - Yards per % | Rec./Tgt. - Yards Rec. - TD - Fum. |
| Zonovan Knight | 18 - 0 - N/A - 0 - 0 | 10 - 54 - 0 - 0 | 100.0% - 9.00 | 2/2 - 18 - 0 - 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 7 - 3 - N/A - 0 - 0 | 5 - 62 - 1 - 0 | 50.0% - 0.00 | 1/2 - 0 - 0 - 0 |
- Johnson ran more efficiently than Knight, but the coaching staff felt far more comfortable piling rush attempts high on Knight's plate.
- Knight averaged 2.86 yards after contact per rush attempt.
- Johnson's 10.00 yards after contact per rush attempt is an outlier based on chunk gains, but it reflects his big-play capabilities.
- Both Knight and Johnson ran just two routes after the injury.
- Knight was highly efficient with his passing game opportunities but fumbled on one of them. The fumble was not lost.
- Both Johnson (14.80 PPR points) and Knight (13.30 PPR points) finished as fantasy football RB2s.
- If Carter suffered an inversion-ankle sprain, fantasy managers should expect him to miss up to two weeks. Per Adam Hutchison's Injury Index, running backs with inversion-ankle sprains average 1.7 games missed with an average -13.2% dip in fantasy production during the ensuing three weeks after their return.
- If Carter suffered a high-ankle sprain, fantasy managers depending on Carter would be in dire straits. Per Hutchison, running backs average 3.1 games missed and are typically slowed by the injury for up to eight weeks upon their return.
- Fantasy managers needing a replacement running back should prioritize adding Knight over Johnson based on the higher volume of touches Knight received both pre- and post-injury.
- Johnson's rushing efficiency and role as the passing-down specialist still bring fantasy value, making him a waiver-wire target in Week 13.
WATCH MORE: Week 12 Fantasy Recap
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