Analysis

12/19/22

8 min read

Fantasy Football NFL Week 15: Five Things We Learned

By Nic Bodiford

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Welcome to Five Things We Learned. Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com unless otherwise stated. 

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McKinnon Takes Chiefs Lead RB Role

• Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon has taken over as the team’s bell-cow running back.
• Fellow Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was placed on injured reserve in late November. But both McKinnon and rookie Isiah Pacheco began separating from Edwards-Helaire in Week 9 after Kansas City’s Week 8 bye.
• In Weeks 9-12, Pacheco operated as the team’s primary rusher, with McKinnon handling passing downs. The two players essentially split scoring-position work. 
• During the last three weeks, McKinnon has eaten into Pacheco’s rushing role, setting himself up for a league-winning fantasy role down the stretch. 
• The table below compares McKinnon and Pacheco’s post-bye deployment. “3/4-&-3+” refers to third-and fourth-down with three or more yards to go. “RZ” and “GZ” refer to red and green zones, respectively.

• The table below compares McKinnon and Pacheco’s Weeks 9-15 per-play efficiency and fantasy points. “YPC” refers to yards per carry.

Lockett Injured

• Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett suffered a spiral fracture on his index finger metacarpal in Week 15. It is possible Lockett returns in Week 17, but it might be a longshot. 
• No. 3 wide receiver Marquise Goodwin (5-foot-9-inches, 183-pounds) should step into the No. 2 role behind DK Metcalf. 
• The table below compares Lockett and Goodwin’s receiving data.

• Goodwin’s usage and production closely mirror Lockett's. Goodwin should moderately reproduce Lockett’s successes in Seattle’s pass-happy offense.
• Wide receivers Penny Hart (5-foot-8-inches, 180-pounds) and Dareke Young (6-foot-2-inches, 224-pounds) will vie for No. 3 honors with Dee Eskridge on injured reserve. Laquon Treadwell has played sparingly since signing with Seattle in November. 
• The table below shows Hart and Young’s preseason and regular season receiving data.

• Hart has proved to be the more capable player, but Young’s dominant physical profile should not be ignored. Neither Goodwin nor Hart clear 5-foot-10-inches or 185-pounds. 
• Goodwin should be a priority wavier-wire addition in 12-team leagues.
• Hart’s superior play gives him the edge over Young, but both players should be considered in deep leagues. 

London Hogs Targets

• The Atlanta Falcons placed starting quarterback Marcus Mariota on injured reserve last Wednesday, pushing third-round rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder into the starting role. Though Ridder flopped in his debut, completing just 13-of-26 passes for 97 scoreless yards, fellow rookie wide receiver Drake London operated as the apple of Ridder’s eye. 
• London’s fantasy production was frustratingly inefficient despite the heavy workload. Entering Week 15, London’s 26.6% targets per route run rate ranked 10th among NFL wide receivers with at least 50 targets. The table below ranks London’s Weeks 1-14 receiving data in parentheses among the same group of wide receivers.

• The table below ranks London’s Week 15 receiving data among NFL wide receivers with at least five targets in Week 15.

• London has a chance to build on his promising start playing alongside Ridder. The table below ranks the pass defenses of Atlanta’s Weeks 16 and 17 opponents in parentheses.

• Arizona’s starting cornerback trio, Marco Wilson (neck), Antonio Hamilton (back) and Byron Murphy (back) did not play in Week 15. Murphy’s back injury has kept him sidelined since Week 10.

Add Shaheed Off Of Waivers

• New Orleans Saints rookie wide receiver Rashid Shaheed is amidst a rookie breakout campaign, finishing Week 15 as a mid-tier WR2 with 18.5 point-per-reception fantasy points. 
• The Weber State alum was a four-time All-American kick returner, a 2021 first-team Big Sky Conference kick and punt returner and a 2021 second-team Big Sky Conference wide receiver. 
• Shaheed’s collegiate kick and punt return abilities are significant. NFL scouts have noted a strong correlation between high-quality NCAA return abilities and future NFL wide receiver and running back capabilities. NCAA coaches often use their best players in the return game because it is an easy way to get the ball in the player’s hands.  
• Shaheed took his first offensive snap in Week 6. He scored on his second-career target in Week 7, taking his lone reception for a 53-yard touchdown. 
• Shaheed’s passing game participation has increased significantly in Week 11. The table below reflects his per-game participation averages in Weeks 6-10 and 11-15.

• The table below ranks Shaheed’s season-long receiving data in parentheses among NFL wide receivers with at least 15 targets. 

• While Shaheed’s lacking 15.7% targets per route run rate stands out as a negative outlier, his stats as a top-seven wide receiver in the remaining six receiving categories should not be ignored.
• Shaheed has produced an 18.2% targets per route run rate during New Orleans’ last two games. He's averaged 15.0 PPR points per game during that span, good for 25th at the position overall. Shaheed’s improved target-earning ability bodes well for future fantasy viability. 
• New Orleans faces the Cleveland Browns next week. They are allowing 11.21 yards per reception, which is the 14th most in the NFL. 
• Shaheed has five receptions totaling 30 yards receiving or more.

Taylor Re-Injures Ankle

• Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor re-aggravated his nagging ankle injury less than two minutes into Indianapolis’ Week 14 game against the Minnesota Vikings. He was ruled out shortly after that.
• The table below displays snap shares of Nos. 2 and 3 running backs Zack Moss and Deon Jackson.

• Moss took 24 rush attempts for 81 yards rushing and earned one target but failed to catch it.
• Jackson took 13 rush attempts for 55 yards rushing and lost one fumble. Jackson also caught his lone target for a one-yard receiving touchdown. 
• The table below displays Moss and Jackson’s Week 15 per-play efficiency and fantasy points. 

• Jackson played meaningful snaps due to Taylor’s recurring injury in Weeks 5, 6 and 9. Only the latter game was played under current coach Jeff Saturday. The table below reflects Jackson’s per-play efficiency in those games.

• Moss’ Week 15 usage indicates Saturday views him as the primary bell-cow backup, but Jackson’s superior efficiency and notable passing game role make Jackson the preferred waiver-wire addition over Moss. 
• Moss should still be added where available, though, as Indianaspolis’ Week 16 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers is as good as it gets. 
• Los Angeles is allowing 5.35 yards per carry and 3.45 yards after contact per carry. Both rates rank second-worst in the NFL. 

WATCH: Add, Drop These Two Rookie WRs Before Week 16

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Nic Bodiford

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Nic Bodiford contributes to The 33rd Team's fantasy football department and works elsewhere as an analyst and editor in written, video and audio mediums. These works can be found at Pro Football Focus, 4for4, Nerdball and Fake Teams. Nic moonlights at Legendary Upside by editing Pat Kerrane's weekly article, The Walkthrough.