Analysis
1/2/23
9 min read
Fantasy Football NFL Week 17: Five Things We Learned
Welcome to Five Things We Learned. Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com unless otherwise stated.
Tight Ends to Target in 2023
- The tight end position is a notoriously difficult position to learn.
- Players must master both the receiving game and offensive-line blocking responsibilities before most coaches afford them a full complement of snaps.
- Examining per-play efficiency data is the best way to spot tight ends on the rise.
- The table below ranks in parentheses the receiving data of notable tight ends who finished outside the position’s top 12 PPR per-game. scorers. The minimum target threshold used is 25 targets.
| NFL TE Receiving - Weeks 1-17 | Per Routes Run Rates: Targets - Yards | Catch Rate | Average Depth of Target - Yards After Catch per Rec. | Yards per Rec. |
| Kyle Pitts (ATL) | 28.5% (No. 1) - 1.72 (No. 7) | 47.5% (No. 47) | 13.83 (No. 1) - 4.50 (No. 28) | 12.71 (No. 8) |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) | 26.3% (No. 2) - 2.55 (No. 1) | 69.0% (No. 23) | 7.45 (No. 17) - 7.83 (No. 3) | 14.07 (No. 1) |
| Jelani Woods (IND) | 19.6% (No. 13) - 1.65 (No. 9) | 66.7% (T-No. 30) | 10.33 (No. 4) - 4.83 (No. 22) | 12.63 (No. 9) |
| Colby Parkinson (SEA) | 16.8% (No. 34) - 1.49 (No. 14) | 74.2% (No. 10) | 7.77 (No. 14) - 5.83 (No. 13) | 11.96 (No. 12) |
| Noah Fant (SEA) | 18.2% (No. 22) - 1.44 (No. 15) | 78.0% (No. 6) | 6.59 (No. 27) - 4.74 (No. 24) | 10.13 (No. 29) |
- Falcons' Kyle Pitts and Titans' Chigoziem Okonkwo are the two strongest tight end prospects in the NFL.
- Baltimore Ravens rookie Isaiah Likely earned a 14th-ranked 19.5% targets per route run rate.
- Arizona Cardinals rookie Trey McBride ranked No. 14 with a 72.2% catch rate.
- New Orleans Saints' Juwan Johnson was No. 7 with an 8.97-yard average depth of target and No. 13 with 11.88 yards per reception.
- Denver Broncos rookie Greg Dulcich’s 11.35-yard average depth of target ranked No. 3, and his 12.45 yards per reception was No. 11.
- New York Giants rookie Daniel Bellinger boasted an 85.7% catch rate, the second-best at the position.
Eagles, Dolphins Produce Pair of WR1s
- Philadelphia Eagles wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and Miami Dolphins wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, will finish as points-per-reception (PPR) WR1s, pending the results of Monday night’s Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals game.
- Cincinnati wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will likely make the leap from their respective WR13 and WR14 spots into the top 12.
- The table below ranks the former four players’ receiving data among NFL wide receivers with at least 50 targets. The results are a testament to the predictive reliability of football’s per-route data.
| NFL WR Receiving - min. 50 Targets | Per Routes Run Rate: Targets - Yards | Catch % - Yards per Rec. | Average Depth of Target - Yards After Catch per Rec. | PPR Points - PPR Points Per Game |
| A.J. Brown | 25.0% (No. 14) - 2.60 (No. 4) | 62.2% (No. 53) - 16.68 (No. 5) | 11.84 (No. 25) - 6.12 (No. 5) | 286.10 (No. 5) - 17.88 (No. 17.88) |
| DeVonta Smith | 22.9% (No. 26) - 2.02 (No. 16) | 68.8% (No. 23) - 12.83 (No. 34) | 10.09 (No. 44) - 5.00 (No. 20) | 240.90 (No. 9) - 15.06 (No. 15.06) |
| Tyreek Hill | 32.5% (No. 1) - 3.33 (No. 1) | 70.9% (No. 16) - 14.42 (No. 15) | 12.28 (No. 16) - 4.11 (No. 37) | 342.90 (No. 2) - 21.43 (No. 3) |
| Jaylen Waddle | 22.8% (No. 27) - 2.67 (No. 2) | 62.5% (No. 51) - 18.74 (No. 1) | 12.37 (No. 15) - 7.09 (No. 2) | 248.90 (No. 8) - 15.56 (No. 11) |
Elite Quarterback Scoring
- Three NFL quarterbacks averaged more than 24.0 fantasy points per game this year; Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (26.40), Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (25.15) and Bills quarterback Josh Allen (24.92).
- Hurts suffered an SC-joint sprain in Week 15 and missed Weeks 16 and 17.
- Allen has yet to play in Week 17 as Buffalo plays the Bengals on Monday night.
- The aforementioned quarterbacks’ average of 25.49 fantasy points per game put a gulf between them and the rest of the QB1 tier (QB4-12), who averaged just 18.83 fantasy points per game.
- Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow averaged 22.61 fantasy points per game and was the only remaining quarterback to average more than 20.0 fantasy points per game.
- Bears quarterback Justin Fields averaged 24.14 fantasy points per game from Week 6 after Bears' coach Matt Eberflus altered his play calling to more efficiently feature Fields’ rushing upside.
- The tables below rank the top-three quarterbacks’ passing and rushing data in parentheses among NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts (38 quarterbacks) and at least 15 rush attempts (36 quarterbacks), respectively. Fields’ Weeks 6-17 data has been included but left unranked.
- “RZ” and “GZ” refer to the “red zone” and “green zone (inside the opponent’s 10-yard line)."
| NFL QB Passing - Weeks 1-17 | Pass Att. per Game - Completion Rate | Yards per Att. - Average Depth of Target | Passing Depth Frequency: 10+ Yards - 20+ Yards | Per-Game Pass Att. Inside: RZ - GZ |
| Jalen Hurts | 30.36 (No. 25) - 67.3% (No. 7) | 8.17 (No. 3) - 8.22 (No. 13) | 32.2% (No. 23) - 12.2% (No. 18) | 3.36 (No. 30) - 1.43 (No. 31) |
| Patrick Mahomes | 38.88 (No. 6) - 67.0% (No. 11) | 8.12 (No. 4) - 7.17 (No. 31) | 30.2% (No. 30) - 8.7% (No. 36) | 7.44 (No. 1) - 4.19 (No. 1) |
| Josh Allen | 35.73 (No. 10) - 63.4% (No. 27) | 7.52 (No. 13) - 8.96 (No. 8) | 36.6% (No. 10) - 13.8% (No. 12) | 5.93 (No. 6) - 2.47 (No. 9) |
| Justin Fields - Weeks 6-17 | 23.00 - 62.2% | 6.80 - 9.03 | 37.4% - 13.9% | 3.10 - 1.10 |
| NFL QB Rushing - Weeks 1-17 | Rush Att. per Game | Yards per Rush Att. - Yards After Contact per Rush Att. | Longest Rush | Per-Game Rush Att. Inside: RZ - GZ. |
| Jalen Hurts | 11.14 (No. 1) | 4.79 (No. 13) - 2.13 (No. 13) | 42 (T-No. 4) | 3.14 (No. 1) - 1.86 (No. 1) |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3.63 (T-No. 16) | 5.67 (No. 6) - 1.16 (No. 32) | 20 (T-No. 19) | 0.88 (No. 15) - 0.38 (No. 19) |
| Josh Allen | 7.67 (No. 5) | 6.49 (No. 3) - 3.43 (No. 6) | 44 (No. 3) | 1.73 (No. 5) - 1.00 (No. 2) |
| Justin Fields - Weeks 6-17 | 11.80 | 8.04 - 4.94 | 67 | 1.90 - 1.20 |
- Hurts and Fields offer dynamic rushing upside.
- Hurts’ production is keyed by an impressive ability to complete passes despite his third-ranked average depth of target. Fields’ aggressive downfield passing has him ever-ready to produce a big play.
- Allen's blend of aerial and ground-based attacks creates perhaps the league’s truest dual-threat profile.
- However, Mahomes’ unicorn passing abilities are unparalleled, and his part-time rushing role adds juice to his ceiling.
Rookie Running Backs' Means of Success
- The 2022 NFL season saw a bevy of rookie running backs storm their way to noteworthy first-year campaigns.
- Jets second-round running back Breece Hall led all rookie running backs with 16.44 points-per-reception (PPR) points per game and was the RB8 overall in PPR per-game scoring this year before a Week 8-ACL tear ended his season prematurely.
- Among NFL running backs with at least 25 rush attempts, Hall’s 5.79 yards per rush attempt and 4.13 yards after contact per rush attempt both ranked fourth overall. His 62-yard season-best run ranked No. 10.
- Among NFL running backs with at least 15 targets, Hall’s 28.4% targets per route run rate ranked fourth, and his 2.00 yards per route run finished No. 2. His 4.74-yard average depth of target ranked led the position while his nine yards after the catch per reception ranked No. 9.
- Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker’s 187.30 PPR points and nine rushing touchdowns led all NFL rookie running backs. His PPR-point total ranked 20th among all NFL running backs.
- Among NFL running backs with at least 25 rush attempts, Walker’s 4.78 yards per rush attempt ranked No. 25, and his 3.23 yards after contact per rush attempt ranked No. 22. His 74-yard season-best run ranked No. 4.
- Texans running back Dameon Pierce’s 166.40 PPR points ranked No. 2 among NFL rookie running backs, and his 12.80 PPR points per game ranked No. 3. He finished as the RB22 in PPR points per game overall.
- Pierce’s season ended in Week 13 when the promising rusher suffered the dreaded high-ankle sprain.
- Among NFL running backs with at least 25 rush attempts, Pierce’s 3.28 yards after contact per rush attempt ranked No. 18. His 75-yard season-best run ranks No. 3.
- Among NFL running backs with at least 15 targets, Pierce’s 20.2% targets per route run ranked No. 32.
- Falcons' rookie running back Tyler Allgeier’s 4.84 yards per rush attempt ranked 21st among NFL running backs with at least 25 rush attempts, and his 3.42 yards after contact per rush attempt ranked No. 16.
- Buccaneers rookie running back Rachaad White’s 22.9% targets per route run ranked 21st among NFL running backs with at least 15 targets. His 1.15 yards per route run ranked No. 31.
- Chiefs' rookie running back Isiah Pacheco’s 4.73 yards per rush attempt ranked 26th among NFL running backs with at least 25 rush attempts.
- Among NFL running backs with at least 25 rush attempts, Bills' rookie running back James Cook’s 5.78 yards per rush attempt ranked fifth, and his 2.99 yards after contact per rush attempt ranked No. 35.
- Among NFL running backs with at least 15 targets, Cook’s 27.3% targets per route run ranked No. 8, and his 1.59 yards per route run ranked No. 11. His 2.67-yard average depth of target ranked No. 8.
- San Francisco 49ers' rookie running back Jordan Mason’s 6.35 yards per rush attempt led NFL running backs with at least 25 rush attempts, and his 4.59 yards after contact per rush attempt ranked No. 2. His 55-yard season-best run ranked No. 17.
- Jets rookie running back Zonovan Knight’s 48-yard season-best run ranked No. 24.
- Patriots rookie running back Pierre Strong’s 33.3% targets per route run ranked No. 2 among NFL rookie running backs.
- Panthers rookie Raheem Blackshear’s 25.5% ranked No. 5, and Dallas Cowboys' Malik Davis’ 24.1% ranked No. 7. Strong’s 2.00 yards per route run tied for No. 3, and Davis’ 2.17 ranked No. 3. Blackshear’s 1.98 ranked No. 6.
- Titans rookie running back Julius Chestnut’s 2.28 yards per route run ranked No. 1 among NFL rookie running backs.
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Giants' Field Pair WR3s Down The Stretch
- Afterthoughts at the beginning of 2022, Giants' X-wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins and slot receiver Richie James Jr. have proven to be reliable contributors down the stretch.
- Hodgins was cut by the Bills on Nov. 1, 2022, halfway through his third NFL season. Giants coach Brian Daboll, formerly Buffalo’s offensive coordinator, signed Hodgins to a one-year deal on Nov. 2.
- It took Hodgins three weeks to find his footing, but in Week 13, he kicked off a five-game streak, averaging 6.6 targets, 5.0 receptions, 50.0 yards receiving and 0.8 touchdowns receiving.
- The table below ranks Hodgins’ receiving data in parentheses among 47 NFL wide receivers with at least 25 targets in Weeks 13-17.
| NFL WR Receiving - Weeks 13-17 | Per Routes Run Rates: Targets - Yards | Catch Rate - Yards per Rec. | Average Depth of Target - Yards After Catch per Rec. | PPR Points per Game - TDs per Game |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 18.5% (No. 38) - 1.40 (No. 34) | 75.8% (No. 7) - 10.00 (T-No. 38) | 8.85 (No. 35) - 3.38 (T-No. 43) | 15.20 (No. 18) - 0.8 (T-No. 1) |
- James returned from a Week 8 concussion in Week 11 and began a six-game stretch, averaging 6.2 targets, 5.0 receptions, 50.3 yards receiving and 0.57 touchdowns receiving.
- The table below ranks James’ receiving data in parentheses among 56 NFL wide receivers with at least 30 targets in Weeks 11-17.
| NFL WR Receiving - Weeks 13-17 | Per Routes Run Rates: Targets - Yards | Catch Rate - Yards per Rec. | Average Depth of Target - Yards After Catch per Rec. | PPR Points per Game - TDs per Game |
| Richie James Jr. | 22.0% (No. 29) - 1.89 (No. 22) | 84.1% (No. 3) - 10.22 (No. 43) | 6.59 (No. 51) - 3.38 (No. 33) | 14.11 (No. 20) - 0.57 (T-No. 9) |
- Hodgins finished as the PPR WR20 in Week 17, while James took the WR8 (20.60) spot.
WATCH: Week 17 Fantasy Recap
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