Analysis
6/23/23
8 min read
Fantasy Football: Optimal Early Round Draft Strategy
The early rounds of your fantasy football draft set a critical foundation for the remainder of your team. This article will discuss two strong starts — approved by both Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds — to your fantasy draft if you have an early draft pick in a 12-team league with PPR or half-PPR scoring.
Each team will be discussed in-depth, along with how to approach the middle rounds after this five-round start.
Team Overview Through Five Rounds
Team A
Round 1: WR Ja’Marr Chase
Round 2: WR Chris Olave
Round 3: RB Breece Hall
Round 4: QB Joe Burrow
Round 5: WR Christian Kirk
Team B
Round 1: WR Justin Jefferson
Round 2: RB Nick Chubb
Round 3: WR Keenan Allen
Round 4: WR Christian Watson
Round 5: QB Justin Herbert
Team A Analysis
Through 5 Rounds
Round 1: Ja’Marr Chase
Chase is a threat to be the first receiver in NFL history to reach 2,000 yards. He led the NFL in targets per game last year, has sub-4.40 blazing speed and plays in one of the NFL’s best offenses. His 2021 season featured the most receiving yards by a rookie, and he was on pace for 114 receptions and 15 TDs before a hip fracture forced him to miss a month of football last year.
Round 2: Chris Olave
Olave plays 12 of his 16 fantasy-relevant games (Weeks 1-17) in a domed stadium, which is a plus for passing production. As a rookie, he averaged more yards per game than Garrett Wilson, and now he gets a quarterback upgrade in Derek Carr.
Carr has often fed his top target (Darren Waller had back-to-back seasons with at least 90 receptions, and Davante Adams had a career-high 180 targets in 2022). Olave projects to be that guy for the New Orleans Saints with Michael Thomas compiling just 609 total receiving yards during the previous three seasons.
Round 3: Breece Hall
Hall only topped a 60 percent snap share in three of seven games last season. Yet, he still ranked eighth at the position with 16.4 PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie. Last season, his game-breaking potential was on display. He had a 20-carry game with 116 rushing yards, a game with 11 targets and another game with 100 receiving yards.
The torn ACL last year is a concern, but all reports have been positive so far, and he has a solid chance at returning for Week 1. If he misses a couple of games to start the season, don't worry. Fantasy football championships are won in the playoffs rather than after one or two weeks.
The upgrade to Aaron Rodgers will also help keep defenses honest and set up wider running lanes for Hall. Aaron Jones reached double-digit touchdowns in three of the past four seasons with Rodgers, so it’s easy to imagine Hall finishing as a top-three running back in 2023.
If we knew Hall would be fully healthy for Week 1, his average draft position (ADP) would fall somewhere in Round 1, near rookie runner Bijan Robinson.
Round 4: Joe Burrow
Burrow had 22.7 fantasy points per game last year, good for fourth in the NFL. He’s also the stack with Chase, as both are Cincinnati Bengals players. In short, if Chase is a worthwhile first-round fantasy pick, then Burrow should throw for a lot of yards and touchdowns and pay off his ADP.
Round 5: Christian Kirk
Kirk had a breakout 2022 campaign in his first season with the Jacksonville Jaguars. His 133 targets, 84 receptions, 1,108 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns were all career highs. While Calvin Ridley will likely be the Jaguars' new No. 1, Trevor Lawrence looks poised for an MVP-caliber season in Year 3. We frequently see pairs of wide receivers finishing in the top-24 for fantasy football (Tyreek Hill - Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf - Tyler Lockett, AJ Brown - Devonta Smith, etc.).
Middle Round Strategy
Week 17 is when all the money is won/lost in fantasy football, and the Bengals play the Kansas City Chiefs. Targeting Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco or wide receiver Kadarius Toney in the middle rounds is a savvy move. If that matchup shoots out, Burrow, Chase and a couple of Chiefs players should have big fantasy weeks.
Hall faces the Browns in Week 17, who allowed 5.0 yards per carry last year, fifth most in the NFL, via The Edge.
This team still needs a tight end, and Waller is a great middle-round option. He is the clear top target in the New York Giants' passing game, and he already has two seasons with at least 90 receptions and 1,100 yards on his resume.
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Team B Analysis
Through 5 Rounds
Round 1: Justin Jefferson
Jefferson was the fantasy WR1 last season and has the most historic start to a receiver’s career through three seasons. While the team added Jordan Addison in Round 1 of the NFL Draft, Jefferson is arguably the most well-rounded receiver in the game and should still lead the team in targets most weeks. Kirk Cousins is one of the most reliable quarterbacks for fantasy production, and the Minnesota Vikings defense once again projects to be a liability, which should force this team to throw often in 2023.
Round 2: Nick Chubb
Chubb no longer has Kareem Hunt to worry about sharing the backfield with, and it’s unlikely backup running back Jerome Ford is trusted with as much work as Hunt received the past couple of seasons. The Cleveland Browns have an elite offensive line, and Deshaun Watson’s history of strong passing, combined with his mobility, will take defensive attention away from Chubb.
Chubb has averaged at least 89 rushing yards per game (1,500-yard pace) each of the past four seasons while staying above five yards per carry in every pro season. Chubb has a path to improve upon his 27 receptions and 239 receiving yards from last season with Hunt’s absence, too.
Round 3: Keenan Allen
Allen returned from injury in Week 11 last year, and over those final eight games, he was pacing for 128 receptions, 1,434 yards, and eight touchdowns. With a healthy Mike Williams and new Round 1 rookie Quentin Johnston in the fold, Allen is unlikely to reach those numbers, but they demonstrate the type of ceiling Allen still has in this Los Angeles Chargers offense.
Allen has averaged at least six receptions per game (102 reception pace) each of the past eight seasons and is as consistent as they come when healthy. While there’s no guarantee he will stay healthy in 2022, it’s okay to *assume* health when drafting players early in fantasy football. The goal is to finish first among 12 teams, so you want to chase ceiling outcomes for players rather than the most likely outcome.
Round 4: Christian Watson
Watson is getting a steep quarterback downgrade, moving from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. However, Watson gets exactly what we’re looking for in fantasy football: lots of deep targets to go along with his elite speed. Watson became a starter in Week 10 of his rookie year. In those following eight games, he ranked first in touchdowns (seven), first in average depth of target (16.4 yards downfield), first in yards per route run (2.78), ninth in fantasy points per game (17.2 PPR), and 23rd in receiving yards per game (65 per game, a 1,100-yard pace) - all stats courtesy of The Edge.
Love can perform much worse than Rodgers while still providing a monstrous fantasy season for Watson. The Vikings and Green Bay Packers play each other in Week 17, so this pick also correlates with Justin Jefferson.
Round 5: Justin Herbert
Herbert is the Chargers stack with Keenan Allen. Herbert averaged more than 22 fantasy points per game in each of his first two seasons before injuries ransacked the Chargers in 2022. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore commandeered the No. 1 and No. 4 scoring offense Cowboys over the past two seasons, and the Chargers also drafted receiver Quentin Johnston in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Herbert should play behind a top-10 offensive line with a top-five receiving core and a top-flight play caller in Moore. Herbert should be the co-favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards along with Patrick Mahomes.
Middle Round Strategy
The Chargers play the Denver Broncos in Week 17, and the Broncos' running backs are appealing options later in the draft, as the Chargers allowed a league-high 5.6 yards per carry last year. Samaje Perine is the preferred option, as he flashed as a starter for Cincinnati last year, and Javonte Williams is dealing with a similar injury to the one that limited J.K. Dobbins to fewer than 100 carries last season. The tight end position can be handled similarly to Team A.
Stay on the lookout for our full fantasy rankings later this summer. In the meantime, make sure you subscribe to The 33rd Team Podcast Network, where we’ll be talking fantasy, betting, DFS, best ball, and dynasty all summer long.
