Analysis

12/4/22

10 min read

Fantasy Football: Week 14 Waiver Wire Adds, Drops and More

By Zach Cohen

Spoiler alert: The waiver wire in Week 14 is going to be a bloodbath – and not just because waivers run terribly thin this time of year.

Brace yourselves because we're approaching a Bye-maggedon. 

Teams on a bye in Week 14: Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders.

Yikes. To compensate, I've expanded the FantasyPros' rostership threshold to 60%. That should also compensate for fantasy football managers who have stopped checking their lineups.

As always, this column is also geared toward PPR leagues unless otherwise noted. All stats are credited to TruMedia unless stated otherwise. 

Quarterbacks

Tyler Huntley is a fine insurance plan if Lamar Jackson misses time.

  • Huntley is rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
  • Jackson left the second quarter with an ankle injury.

  • Huntley came in and scored 15.58 fantasy points in three quarters of play.
  • Denver has the No. 1 defense in football and the No. 2 defense in fantasy football against quarterbacks.
  • Huntley ran 10 times for 41 yards and a touchdown, too.
  • Baltimore faces Pittsburgh in Week 14, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
  • Huntley's rushing ability should give him a solid enough floor.
  • Adding Huntley and hoping he plays may be the best strategy if you need a quarterback.
  • I say "best" as in, "you probably have no better options in Week 14".

There is no need to roster Marcus Mariota anymore.

  • Mariota is rostered in 37.2% of leagues.
  • He's averaged the 24th-most fantasy points among quarterbacks from Week 9 to Week 12.
  • That doesn't include his 10.38 fantasy points in Week 13 against Pittsburgh. 
  • While Mariota's rushing upside raises his floor, his bye in Week 14 throws a wrench into things.
  • And his next two opponents are New Orleans and Baltimore.
  • The Saints are a fine matchup for Mariota, but the Ravens have allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Unless you have a bench spot to spare, drop Mariota for someone you can start.

This section will be updated throughout the day with the latest news and data.

Running Backs

Zonovan Knight is worth a start as long as Michael Carter remains out.

  • Knight is rostered in 40.4% of leagues.
  • Carter didn't practice all week as he nursed an ankle injury.
  • In Week 12, I told you Knight was the Jets running back to own.
  • I'm doubling down after Knight saw similar usage in Week 13.
  • Knight saw 15 of New York's 20 running back carries.
  • He also played 19 more snaps than Ty Johnson.
  • Although, Knight and Johnson saw similar workload in the passing game.
  • James Robinson played only nine snaps.
  • New York faces Buffalo in Week 14, who are about average in facing fantasy running backs.
  • But after that? Knight has a delicious schedule, should he remain in a featured role.
  • Nonetheless, we'll have to revisit Knight's fantasy value after Week 14.

Don't drop the Baltimore running backs yet.

  • Gus Edwards is rostered in 55% of leagues.
  • Kenyan Drake is rostered in 40% of leagues. 
  • J.K. Dobbins could be activated from IR for Week 14.
  • However, until he is, each of these running backs deserves to be rostered.
  • Drake led the backfield with 34 snaps to Edwards' 17 snaps.
  • Drake saw seven carries, and Edwards saw six carries.
  • Drake ran 17 routes and saw three targets.
  • Edwards was basically uninvolved in the passing game.
  • While we wait for Lamar Jackson's injury status, we shouldn't expect much of the game plan to change.
  • The Ravens face the Steelers in Week 14, who have allowed the 13th-most points to fantasy running backs.
  • So Baltimore should have an easier time running the ball than they did against Denver.
  • You still shouldn't start them, though.

James Cook should not be left on waivers, says Josh Fewster. 

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Come back later Monday for Josh’s full thoughts on the Bills’ rookie running back.

If Kenneth Walker misses time, pick up whoever Seattle’s backup will be.

  • I say that with the utmost uncertainty, since DeeJay Dallas also got hurt.
  • And Travis Homer was sick and missed Week 13.
  • So Tony Jones filled in for a depleted backfield.
  • Homer has typically been the early-down back, while Dallas has been the preferred receiving back of the two.
  • The Seahawks are 19th in rush-play rate.
  • They face the Panthers in Week 14, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy points and the eighth-most rushing yards per game to running backs. 
  • However, Seattle faces San Francisco in Week 15, who have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points and the fewest rushing yards per game to running backs.
  • Still, a good Week 14 matchup and a featured role make any Seattle running back fantasy relevant.

If you clinched a playoff spot, start stashing handcuffs.

  • All of these running backs could be thrust into the main role if the starter gets hurt.
  • This handcuff data only encompasses the last five games.
  • Jerick McKinnon has played 48% of the Chiefs' snaps in that time, including during Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s two-game absence.
  • Matt Breida has been the only other running back to take snaps from Saquon Barkley – roughly 21% of the Giants’ snaps.
  • Dontrell Hilliard has played 32% of the Titans’ snaps, second-most behind Derrick Henry.
  • Deon Jackson has played 24% of the Colts’ snaps, second-most behind Jonathan Taylor.
  • Amber Abdullah has played 20% of the Raiders’ snaps, third-most behind Josh Jacobs and fullback Jakob Johnson.

Wide Receivers

DJ Chark is worth a waiver pickup.

  • Chark is rostered in 17.3% of leagues.
  • Chark scored 9.6 and 14.8 fantasy points over his last two games, respectively.
  • After missing seven weeks, he seems to be assimilating into Detroit's offense.
  • Based on his snap count and targets, Chark is the Lions' WR2 behind Amon-Ra St. Brown.
  • But Chark has run only 22% of his routes in the slot, whereas St. Brown has run more than half of his in the slot.
  • In his first game back, Jameson Williams played in a minimal role.
  • He could eat into Chark's workload.
  • For now, Chark has some flex appeal, especially with his upcoming matchups.
  • The Lions' next three opponents with fantasy points allowed to wide receivers: Vikings (most), Jets (fewest) and Panthers (sixth-most).

Don't break the bank for Drake London.

  • London is rostered in 67.3% of leagues.
  • However, I suspect most London's available in most competitive leagues.
  • Honestly, I still lean toward London being closer to droppable than to rosterable.
  • Since Week 3, he's had just two games of 8+ fantasy points.
  • Since Week 5 and prior to Week 13, he was averaging 4.8 targets per game.
  • He tied a season-high in Week 13 with 12 targets.
  • But the Steelers allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
  • Next up for London and the Falcons: Bye, Saints, Ravens, Cardinals.
  • It's a moderate schedule, as the Ravens are a top-ten defense versus fantasy wide receivers, while the Cardinals are a bottom-ten defense in that category.
  • Either way, London's lack of production doesn't warrant a roster spot.

Michael Gallup should be your top priority on waivers.

  • Gallup is rostered in 48.7% of leagues.
  • Gallup has 7+ fantasy points in each of his last five games.
  • But he also has 7+ targets in four of those games.
  • In that span, Gallup has averaged the second-most targets among all Cowboys.
  • Gallup had 7+ targets and 11+ fantasy points in each of his last two games.
  • In Week 13, Gallup caught four of his seven targets for two touchdowns and 18.3 fantasy points.
  • He was also tied with CeeDee Lamb for the most targets.
  • The Cowboys face the Texans in Week 14, who have surrendered the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.
  • After that? Dallas faces the Jaguars and Titans in Weeks 15 and 17, respectively.
  • Both teams are bottom-five in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
  • So even if you don’t start him in Week 14, Gallup has a juicy schedule for the fantasy playoffs.

Nico Collins may be worth a stash.

  • Collins is rostered in 24.1% of leagues.
  • Collins scored a moderate 12.5 fantasy points in Week 14.
  • He was the only Texan to see more than five targets.
  • He has between 7-10 targets in each of the last four games.
  • He has between 9.8-15.9 fantasy points in each of the last four games.
  • He also has two touchdowns in that span.
  • Brandin Cooks missed Week 13 with a calf injury.
  • Even if Cooks misses more time, Collins has played better in Houston’s last four games.
  • The Texans aren’t good, so expect them to throw the ball often down the final stretch of the season.

Don’t trust Alec Pierce.

  • Pierce is rostered in 12.6% of leagues.
  • After a promising start to the season, Pierce averaged 4.22 fantasy points from Weeks 7-12.
  • In Week 13, he caught four of his eight targets for 86 yards, a touchdown and 18.6 fantasy points.
  • While Pierce looked impressive, we simply can’t trust the Colts’ passing offense.
  • Anyone who saw the 33-point fourth quarter of the Colts-Cowboys game can tell you why.
  • Indianapolis has their bye in Week 14, too.
  • If Pierce shows more signs of life in Week 15 against Minnesota, then you can consider adding him.

Stash Brandon Powell in deeper leagues.

  • Powell is rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
  • The versatile wideout caught all four of his targets and ran three times.
  • He led Los Angeles with 84 scrimmage yards.
  • Powell also returns kicks and punts; he had three in Week 13.
  • While he only played the fourth-most snaps among the Rams’ wide receivers, he touched the ball more than any Ram except Cam Akers.
  • Powell’s upside could be enough to make him fantasy relevant in the future.
  • You still shouldn’t trust other Rams’ players, though Akers could be worth a pickup if you’re desperate.=

Tight Ends

Greg Dulcich is a top waiver pickup.

  • After 12.2 total fantasy points over the last three weeks, Dulcich had 14.5 fantasy points in Week 13.
  • He was the only Bronco to see more than four targets (seven).
  • He also led the team in routes run.
  • Courtland Sutton left the game with a hamstring injury.
  • Sutton and Dulcich are the bigger targets in Denver's middling offense.
  • No Sutton should help Dulcich's value.
  • With how terrible the tight end position is in fantasy, Dulcich is a TE1 in Week 14.
  • Denver's next three opponents with fantasy points allowed to tight ends: Chiefs (eighth-most), Cardinals (second-most) and Rams (21st-most).

Noah Fant is the best of an underwhelming bunch.

  • Fant is rostered in 22.7% of leagues.
  • Fant has averaged the seventh-most fantasy points among tight ends since Week 9.
  • He’s also the overall TE6 in that span.
  • However, two of his games were 6.4 points, and the other two were just over 14 points.
  • Fant has seen between 3-6 targets in each of those four games.
  • In Week 13, he scored caught four of his five targets for 42 yards, a touchdown and 14.2 fantasy points.
  • Fant was the overall TE2 this week, behind Greg Dulcich.
  • So there’s clearly come volatility with starting Fant.
  • As you can imagine, the entire tight end position is volatile.
  • Unfortunately for Fant, both of Seattle’s next two opponents (Carolina, San Francisco) are top-five in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
  • He’s still a better player to roster than Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, Hayden Hurst, Logan Thomas and Robert Tonyan.

Keep an eye on Chigoziem Okonkwo.

  • Okonkwo is rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
  • Okonkwo has five targets in each of his last two games.
  • In Week 13, he caught four of his five targets for 68 yards and 10.8 fantasy points.
  • He also led the Titans in receiving yards more than twofold and was tied for the most targets.
  • He gets easier matchups over the next two weeks against the Jaguars and the Chargers.
  • Both teams are just below average in allowing fantasy points to tight ends.
  • Okonkwo isn’t even a player to add in deeper leagues, but his usage could lead to fantasy relevancy over the next couple of weeks.
Tags: DJ Chark, Drake London, Greg Dulcich See More

Zach Cohen

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