Fantasy

10/23/22

30 min read

Josh Larky's Week 7 Fantasy Rankings

By Josh Larky

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Below you’ll find my Week 7 fantasy rankings for PPR/Half-PPR leagues. Included are my top-28 QB Rankings, top-44 RB Rankings, top-49 WR Rankings, and top-21 TE Rankings.

For each player, you can view their ranking, matchup, and implied team total, according to Vegas. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers have a Vegas game total of 48.5, with the Chiefs favored by 3 points (25.75 points implied for the Chiefs, 22.75 points implied for the 49ers). Seeing the implied point totals can help you understand which games are projected to be the highest scoring.

xPPR (expected PPR points) is a new stat added in Week 4. Think of this as each player’s average expected fantasy points per game based on their underlying usage.

Teams coming off a Week 6 bye: Lions, Raiders, Texans, Titans

Teams on Week 7 bye: Bills, Rams, Eagles, Vikings

Detailed player write-ups will appear beneath each set of positional rankings to provide additional context. These write-ups will be added through Wednesday night, and then modified as needed through the Week 7 slate.

Top-28 Quarterbacks

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• We are losing Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts to byes this week, and Lamar Jackson is in a tier of his own atop the rankings. He is gifted with the Browns defense this weekend, 31st ranked by Football Outsiders' DVOA. Jackson also has a chance at getting Rashod Bateman back for Week 7, and I'll be monitoring Bateman's practice reports closely this week.
• The Seahawks are allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt to opposing QBs this season. Even if Justin Herbert doesn't get Keenan Allen back this week, he should still shred this defense. Herbert has thrown the ball six or more times in the red zone in all but one game this season - no other QB has done this in 2022. After scoring no TDs last week, pencil him in for at least two against Seattle.
• Despite a disappointing performance against ATL last week (28 points allowed), the 49ers remain a Top-3 overall defense. I'm generally of the belief that a good offense is more important than a good defense, but matchups still matter. Vegas has faith in Patrick Mahomes, as the KC implied team total is still nearly 26 points, seventh highest of the week. If you're concerned about the matchup and only looking for floor this week, drop Mahomes below Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott.
• Dak Prescott could not be returning to a more perfect situation, as he gets the Detroit Lions in Week 7. Michael Gallup is back in the fold, too - a weapon he didn't have in Week 1 against Tampa Bay. The Lions give up 269 passing yards per game at 7.9 yards per attempt - courtesy of our free and flagship tool, The Edge. I'm ready for 20+ fantasy points from Prescott.
• The Falcons are allowing 291 passing yards per game to opposing passers, second-most in the NFL - via The Edge. Joe Burrow has topped 20 fantasy points in four of six games, and I expect him to make it five of seven in Week 7. Tee Higgins had ten targets in Week 6 and is fully healthy. The Falcons simply cannot cover Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins properly on each play. The Falcons All-Pro cornerback AJ Terrell also suffered a minor hamstring injury in Week 6, so the Falcons may be without their best playmaker on defense in this one.
• Kyler Murray has struggled mightily against the blitz this year (just 6.36 yards per attempt), but fortunately for him, the Saints have only blitzed on 15.5% of dropbacks, second-lowest in the NFL. The Saints are by no means a plus matchup, but Kyler gets DeAndre Hopkins back for this game, and there is a chance the newly traded for Robbie Anderson will be active, as well. Star corner Marshon Lattimore missed Week 6, and is no lock for Week 7. While Kyler has been largely disappointing this season, he still has at least 17 fantasy points in all but one game this year, so the floor - even when he struggles - has been relatively high.

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• After an embarrassing loss against the Steelers, Tom Brady needs a get-right game. The Panthers are in full rebuild mode, sport one of the 10-worst secondaries in the NFL, and might be without star corner Jaycee Horn for a second straight game. Brady has a fully healthy complement of receivers, and had back-to-back games of more than 350 passing yards prior to Week 6's meltdown against PIT.
• Tua Tagovailoa has been cleared to return, and will start for MIA in Week 7. The Steelers are a man coverage-heavy defense, and Tua averages a healthy 9.4 yards per attempt against man - only Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers have higher figures against man this year. Tua is also still leading the league overall, with 9.0 yards per attempt, and Tua has a great chance to go over 300 passing yards in this contest if the Steelers can keep this game even remotely competitive.
• Jared Goff returns to a difficult matchup coming off his Week 6 bye. However, D'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and DJ Chark should all be fully healthy for this contest. The Lions offensive line is strong enough to largely neutralize the Cowboys defensive front, and Goff should provide a moderate floor in this game.
• The Commanders gave up at least 256 passing yards in each of their first three games — along with eight combined passing TDs. Their past three matchups were Cooper Rush, Ryan Tannehill and Justin Fields, where they limited those three to 198 passing yards, on average. Aaron Rodgers has not looked like himself this year, but I'd still say he's at least a couple tiers above those three. The Commanders have a borderline elite run defense, so the Packers offense should funnel through Rodgers in Week 7.
• Jimmy Garoppolo is a priority streamer for Week 7 against KC. Thanks to past work by Neel Gupta, we know that QBs facing an elite fantasy QB have a higher floor and ceiling. Because Jimmy G is facing Mahomes and the Chiefs, he'll need to put up a big game in his own right to keep the 49ers in this one.
• With Carson Wentz likely heading to IR to rehab a fractured thumb, Taylor Heinicke is Washington's QB the remainder of October and into November. Heinicke averaged a middling 14.9 fantasy points per game last season as the starter, throwing for just under 215 yards per game. The supporting cast is upgraded this year with Curtis Samuel and rookie Jahan Dotson, but Green Bay is a run funnel defense, and in his first 2022 start, I'd expect a heavy dose of the Washington run game in this contest.

Top-44 Running Backs

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• The Seahawks allow the sixth most receptions per game to RBs, with the fifth most yards per reception. Austin Ekeler is on pace for 116 receptions this year, and has at least 22 expected PPR points in three straight contests. Ekeler has an elite floor and ceiling in this matchup, and is currently my RB1 for Week 7.
• Alvin Kamara's usage has been elite since returning from injury. His per game averages the past two weeks are below.

• Josh Jacobs has more expected fantasy points per game than all but four RBs, and faces a HOU defense allowing 30.4 fantasy points per game, most in the NFL - courtesy of our free and flagship tool, The Edge.
• Derrick Henry is fresh off his Week 6 bye, and his three straight games with at least 23.7 fantasy points are encouraging. He has at least two catches and 30 receiving yards in each of those games, too. Those five plus fantasy points through the air raise his weekly ceiling and floor. The Colts are a strong run defense, but I'm siding with the team fresh off their bye to keep the game close and establish the run early.

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• Breece Hall had a career high 20 rush attempts in Week 6, turning it into 116 yards on the ground. He has at least 12 fantasy points in every game this season, with back-to-back games above 20 fantasy points. While Denver is not a great matchup, I'm trusting Hall's all purpose usage and talent.
• Taylor should return in Week 7 from a low ankle sprain. He has only topped 12 fantasy points once this year, and the Titans are a strong run defense. However, the Colts offensive line is getting healthier, and Taylor likely sees 20+ carries in what projects to be a close matchup.
• Kenneth Walker handled 21 of 23 RB carries and all three RB targets in his first career start in Week 6. He turned that usage into 110 total yards and punched one into the end zone. This week, he gets the Chargers league-worst run defense, allowing 5.8 yards per carry to backs. If you're a bettor, I'd put some money down on Walker to lead all RBs in Week 7 rushing yards when the lines come out.
• Dameon Pierce has at least 101 total yards and 18 fantasy points in three straight contests. He is rested after the Texans Week 6 bye, and faces a middling Raiders run defense.
• D'Andre Swift is not expected to suit up in this one, so Jamaal Williams will once again receive the bulk of the work. While Dallas is an elite pass defense, they're a much more middling run defense. My usage guess for Jamaal would be 15-18 carries and four or five targets.
• Eno Benjamin took 15 of 18 RB carries and ran 39 routes in Week 6. If James Conner is OUT in Week 7, Eno should have elite usage once again.
• Ezekiel Elliott now has at least 73 rushing yards in three of his past four games. He faces a DET run defense that I cannot think of any positive things to say about. Dak Prescott returns this week too, so there is significant TD upside for Zeke in Week 7.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has at least 19 fantasy points in three of his past four games, and has at least 23 touches each of the past two weeks. He has also led the backfield in routes each of the past five weeks. Damien Harris will make his return in Week 7 from injury, and I'm expecting a fairly even split with carries, with Stevenson soaking up several Mac Jones targets. In his return from a high ankle sprain, Jones should be severely limited with his mobility, benefitting Rhamondre in the passing game.

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• I'll continue to be bullish on Kareem Hunt each week if his role remains the same. He's averaging ten carries and nearly three targets per game. However, he's getting 2.7 red zone rush attempts (0.7 per game at the goal line), along with 0.7 red zone targets per game. Hunt is a focal point of the Cleveland offense in the area that scores fantasy points. Week 6 was the first time all season Hunt didn't have at least two red zone touches, and that's likely a blip on the radar. Baltimore is a well below average run defense, and Hunt should be able to put up a nice game in this contest.
• Travis Etienne is the ultimate buy-low in redraft and dynasty. Etienne has out-snapped James Robinson in three straight weeks, and has at least 108 total yards each of the past two weeks. He has not scored a TD yet this season, but the Giants are allowing a healthy 5.5 yards per carry to opposing backs. I'll likely take Etienne's anytime TD prop this weekend, as a couple explosive runs are likely in this matchup.
• Jamaal Williams had over ten expected fantasy points in both Weeks 1 and 2 while Swift was healthy and active. He remains a fringe RB2 candidate who should get double digit carries, a couple targets, and some red zone work.
• Najee Harris has between 6.6 and 15.1 fantasy points in every game this year. He has a floor thanks to his workload, but has no ceiling thanks to his plodding style, a weak PIT offensive line, and only one game above 16 receiving yards on the season. He is a landmine in redraft and dynasty, and I personally do not want to find out when this bomb goes off.
• Bears Head Coach Matt Eberflus suggested the team will roll with a hot hand approach for Week 7. I have downgraded David Montgomery slightly as a result, and am cautiously optimistic about Khalil Herbert's workload.

#Bears head coach Matt Eberflus said "we're gonna go with the hot hand" when asked if Khalil Herbert might see more reps in the future.

— Sean Hammond (@sean_hammond) October 18, 2022

• Isiah Pacheco has been announced as the starter, and this makes Clyde Edwards-Helaire largely unplayable in fantasy football. Jerick McKinnon has fairly consistently been involved on passing downs, and I'd expect that to remain heading into Week 7 at San Francisco.
• Kenyan Drake turned ten carries into 119 yards and a TD in Week 6. He also ran 17 routes and was targeted twice. I'd anticipate roughly ten carries and one or two targets against a weak Browns defense in Week 7. Justice Hill returns from injury in this one, and my educated guess is he's the 1B to Drake's 1A for this matchup. I'd postulate that Drake gets slightly more carries and goal line work, while Hill is more active in the passing game. The other wrinkle is Gus Edwards returning in this game. I'm assuming Gus Edwards has minimal involvement in his first game back, but the floors on Drake and Hill are low, with the chance that Edwards has a much larger role than anticipated. JK Dobbins is out until late in the 2023 season after re-injuring his surgically repaired knee. For more information on recent injuries and recovery timetables, this thread from Deepak Chona is excellent.

#NFL Injury Updates:#Ravens JK Dobbins - Avg = 5 wks out. 6 wks to pre-injury per-play production. Most commonly ramp back up is 4 wks post-return. Long-term = shorter careers + more missed games in years to come

Mark Andrews - Likely playing. Minimal performance impact

1/11

— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) October 22, 2022

• Latavius Murray stepped into game action for DEN on Monday Night against LAC and immediately handled 15 of 19 RB carries, and was targeted once on nine routes. Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett has since mentioned that Melvin Gordon will draw the start in this contest. I'm skeptical, but have flipped Gordon and Murray in my rankings. It makes me feel queasy to trust Hackett, and I still think Murray has more upside this week, given we just saw him in a workhorse role. However, the floor for Gordon is likely higher if he does in fact draw the start. UPDATE: With Russell Wilson now being ruled OUT, I will need to further evaluate this backfield. While Brett Rypien hurts the TD upside and efficiency of this offense, DEN likely relies more heavily now on the run game.
• We now have a two-game sample size with Brian Robinson in the fold, and you cannot start Antonio Gibson or JD McKissic in fantasy anymore. Robinson was given all four red zone carries (including the lone goal line carry), and Gibson/McKissic chipped in five combined carries, with Gibson getting four targets out of the backfield. Robinson is in weekly RB3 range after garnering 17 carries and cementing himself as the red zone back. Gibson is a desperation flex play, and McKissic can be returned to waivers.
• It's unclear what Christian McCaffrey's role will be in Week 7 now that he's been traded to the 49ers. I'd expect five to ten touches for him, with a couple of those coming near the end zone. I wrote up my in-depth thoughts on the McCaffrey trade, and why I'm concerned about his rest of season outlook.
• AJ Dillon is borderline bench-able for Week 7. In Week 1, Dillon topped 20 fantasy points. Since then, he hasn't cracked double digits, averaging only 7 PPR points per game. This game at Washington is a tough matchup, too. Despite their overall record and reputation for being a terrible team, the Commanders do have an elite run defense. The Packers offense has struggled, and Dillon has been under 50 rushing yards in four of five games this season, while only topping 11 receiving yards in one contest. The floor and ceiling are low in this matchup.
• D'Onta Foreman should receive starter touches at RB against Tampa Bay this week with CMC traded to the 49ers. Chuba Hubbard should also mix in, but I lean Foreman, who looked quite good for the Titans last season. Overall, this is a low upside backfield, as the Panthers offense is unlikely to get much going against the Buccaneers.
• Both Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley crested 15 carries against SF in Week 6. Huntley handled the majority of the red zone/goal line work, while Allgeier ran 12 routes to Huntley's two. I'd lean very slightly in Allgeier's direction for Week 7, but neither option has a solid floor or ceiling on a weekly basis.

Top-49 Wide Receivers

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• Davante Adams has 101 receiving yards or a TD in every game this season and now faces a mediocre HOU pass defense.

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• Tyreek Hill has 160 or more receiving yards in three of six games this season. After three straight losses, expect big games for Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Tua Tagovailoa's return. The Steelers secondary has been exposed in recent weeks, and I'm expecting 200+ combined yards from the MIA receiving duo.
• CeeDee Lamb is leading all receivers with a 33.5% target share through six games, gets Dak Prescott back, and faces the Lions. It's a great week to rank CeeDee Lamb as a Top-4 fantasy option. Screenshot via our free and flagship tool, The Edge.

• Tom Brady has funneled the pass attach through Chris Godwin and Mike Evans the past three weeks, with the duo averaging 17 targets per game over that span. The Buccaneers will look to embarrass the Panthers in this divisional matchup after a disappointing loss to Pittsburgh in Week 6.
• I lean toward Keenan Allen missing Week 7 with the Chargers Week 8 bye coming up. Mike Williams is in a smash spot against a Seattle defense that has cemented itself as a Bottom-5 unit. Williams has 101 or more air yards in every contest without Keenan Allen and those should translate into receiving yards in this matchup. The real concern would be Josh Palmer being OUT with a concussion. With DeAndre Carter likely starting in two-wide sets, there should be heavy attention on Big Mike in this contest.
• Chris Olave is the only healthy WR among the Saints Big-3 (Olave, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry), and should be force fed intermediate and downfield targets from Andy Dalton. The Cardinals are a secondary to target, as they've already allowed 18 pass plays of 20 or more yards on the season.
• DK Metcalf is playing on another level right now. He's commanding just over eight targets per game, bringing in five per game for 68 yards. Better yet, Geno has fed him 1.5 end zone targets per game, tied for the most in the entire NFL. The Chargers have struggled against receivers this year, and Metcalf is a major matchup problem for them. He's only cracked 20 fantasy points once this year, but Week 7 is a strong spot for him to put up his second game of that sort.

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• It's difficult to forecast DeAndre Hopkins' exact role in his first game back from a PED suspension, but I'd assume he's a full-go since he's been fully healthy the past six weeks. If Marshon Lattimore misses this contest, that would be a boon for Hopkins' fantasy value in this contest. Either way, I'd expect a 25% target share for Hopkins in his return.
• Despite a down few weeks in the fantasy points column, Christian Kirk still has a 20% or higher target share in all but one game this season. The Giants are not a great matchup, but Kirk has a red zone or end zone target in every game this season. I'm not at all concerned about Kirk in redraft.
• Allen Lazard has six red zone (three end zone) targets through five games this season, and has 100 yards or a TD in each contest. Washington is a below average secondary, and Randall Cobb's Week 6 injury should only further consolidate the target tree in Green Bay. Romeo Doubs is also a strong start this week, as he has at least eight targets in three of his past four games.
• Rashod Bateman makes his return from a foot injury in Week 7, and gets an excellent matchup with the Browns, who are Bottom-8 in yards per play allowed both via the pass and the run. The Ravens should be able to move the ball efficiently in this one, and Bateman should command six to eight high percentage targets with one or two red zone/end zone looks.
• Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy fell down the rankings with the switch from Russell Wilson to Brett Rypien at QB. He is an undrafted free agent with a career INT rate of 10%.
• Tyler Lockett has not practiced all week, and his tumble down the rankings reflects this. Pete Carroll said Lockett will play, and I believe him - Lockett has rarely missed time throughout his career. However, Lockett has been significantly less efficient when hobbled, and his floor and ceiling are lower in this matchup than normal.

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• Michael Gallup is reunited with Dak Prescott, and gets to face a Detroit Lions defense that practically begs opponents to put up big plays against them. The Lions are allowing over three pass plays of 20+ yards per game on the season.
• Taylor Heinicke has minimal experience playing with Curtis Samuel, so I flipped Terry McLaurin ahead of him for my Week 7 rankings. If Jahan Dotson builds upon his limited practice showing on Wednesday, this will further pollute the target tree, and McLaurin/Samuel will be downgraded in the rankings.
• DJ Moore is on pace for under 600 receiving yards, and has been a massive disappointment this season. Fortunately, Robbie Anderson is now in Arizona, so more target volume should be on the way for Moore. The Buccaneers are a tough matchup, but I have a difficult time seeing Moore get any fewer than eight targets in this contest.
• The Jets WRs continue to tumble down the rankings, as the Zach Wilson-led offense has been frustratingly run-heavy. However, the Jets will likely see negative game scripts in this game against DEN, so I'm not completely tanking their projected fantasy value in this contest. Elijah Moore has been ruled OUT as he seeks a potential trade. Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis should see heightened target shares, but this should be an ugly game against DEN backup QB Brett Rypien. Expect another heavy dose of the run game after Zach Wilson threw for only 110 yards in Week 6.
• Brandon Aiyuk had his biggest game of the season, and the 49ers will need to throw against KC. Aiyuk is quietly on pace for over 900 receiving yards this season, and I'm anticipating 35+ pass attempts from Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday.
• Drake London has a 22% or higher target share in every game this year, with three games of 31% or higher. The issue has been the Falcons' incredibly low volume pass attack. After running 28+ routes each of his first two games, he's averaged just under 20 routes run per game since. For context, five WRs are running at least twice as many routes per game as London. He's only averaging six targets and 37 yards per game since Week 3, and while I hope the Falcons have to pass against the Bengals to keep Week 7 competitive, I'm not overly optimistic.
• Wan'Dale Robinson only ran 11 routes in his Week 6 return (34% route participation), but commanded four targets (one red zone), and brought in three for 37 yards and a score. The talented second round rookie should see increased involvement in Week 7 since the Giants WR room is primarily filled with practice squad caliber players.

Top-21 Tight Ends

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• With Rashod Bateman absent the past two games due to a foot injury, Mark Andrews has back-to-back games of at least a 34% target share and 23 fantasy points. Bateman returns in Week 7, and Travis Kelce returns to the weekly TE1 slot.
• George Kittle is running a route on 88% of Jimmy Garoppolo's dropbacks, an elite number. In Week 6, Kittle led the team with 40 routes run, turning that into ten targets, eight catches, and 83 yards. Against the Chiefs, the 49ers will need to throw to keep the game competitive. On a week that lacks other standout options, Kittle is my TE3, though he is far closer to Darren Waller at TE6 than Travis Kelce at TE2.
• DeAndre Hopkins is IN, while Marquise Brown is OUT. Marquise Brown had a 26.4% target share through six weeks, courtesy of our free and flagship tool, The Edge. Last season, Hopkins only commanded 19.7% of the team's targets, as he battled injuries and ineffectiveness. I'd assume Hopkins returns somewhere between that number and his career average of mid-high 20s target shares. That likely puts him around 23%, leaving a few extra targets up for grabs in this offense. I'd expect Zach Ertz to be the primary beneficiary, and even with Hopkins returning, consider Ertz to still be knocking on the door of that elite TE tier.
• David Njoku continues his tear, with at least 58 yards - and a red zone or end zone target, in each of his past four games. Njoku is a priority start each and every week.
• Dalton Schultz was inactive last week due to injury, and hasn't recorded a reception since Week 2. However, Dak Prescott returns, and Schultz was a practice participant throughout last week, so I'm optimistic he plays in full for Week 7. If active and healthy, he has a high floor and ceiling against a Lions team unable to limit big plays and long drives.
• While Kyle Pitts has a 21% or better target share in all but one game this season, he has only run more than 17 routes twice. The low volume Falcons pass attack has severely hurt Pitts' and Drake London's production. Until the pass volume increases, Pitts' seven PPR points per game average won't be able to increase by much.
• Taysom Hill will always be the toughest player to rank at TE. If you're projected to win your fantasy matchup, or it's within a few fantasy points, I'd focus on other options. If you're projected to lose by ten or more fantasy points, Taysom's upside is a great way to potentially survive that matchup. Taysom has a game with 15 fantasy points, a game with 29 points, a game with eight points, and two games below four fantasy points. There is no floor, but the ceiling is similar to Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
• Robert Tonyan saw 12 targets in Week 6, and now Randall Cobb is headed to IR for an extended absence. There is real volume potential here for Tonyan.
• Foster Moreau should draw the start with Darren Waller OUT in Week 7. He had at least six targets in three of seven starts last year, and topped 50 yards in four games last season. He's a viable streamer for Week 7 due to his floor.
• Mike Gesicki started the year slowly, but now has back-to-back weeks of 67% and 76% route participation. Gesicki is still yet to crack a 16% target share in any game this season, but the Dolphins pass attack is well above average, and Gesicki is still the clear third pass game option after Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
• I'd expect Mitchell Trubisky to start Week 7 after Kenny Pickett left early last week due to a concussion. In three games with Trubisky, Pat Freiermuth averaged seven targets per game, second on the team to Diontae Johnson. Freiermuth turned those targets into 46 yards and ten fantasy points per game. The floor is fairly high, but the ceiling in this PIT offense is fairly low. If you want at least six or seven points from the TE position, Freiermuth is your guy.
• NYG TE Daniel Bellinger ran a route on 55% of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks in Week 5, and that number increased to 84% in Week 6. Bellinger caught all five of his targets (two red zone, one end zone), for 38 yards, putting up 14.8 fantasy points. If he continues to run 80% of the team’s routes on a team devoid of WR talent, Bellinger could sneak into Top-12 territory at TE by midseason.
• Greg Dulcich ran a route on 79% of Russell Wilson's Week 6 dropbacks in his first career game. He was targeted three times, bringing in two for 44 yards and a score. One of those targets came in the red zone, a different one came in the end zone. We're probably one or two weeks away from being able to start Dulcich in 12-team leagues, but I would make sure to scoop him off waivers now in case the targets tick up.

These Week 7 fantasy rankings will be updated throughout the week. Make sure to check this post each day throughout the week as the news hits.

Watch More: Week 7 Kickers, D/STs to Stream

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Josh Larky

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Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.