NFL Analysis
11/4/24
5 min read
Firing Dennis Allen Won't Save The Saints From Long-Term Rebuild
The New Orleans Saints made a big move by firing head coach Dennis Allen on Monday. But that isn't going to be what fixes the team or saves them as they attempt a long-term rebuild.
The Saints fired Allen following the team's disappointing 23-22 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Allen leaves New Orleans with an 18-25 record as their head coach, never reaching the playoffs or winning the NFC South.
BREAKING: The #Saints have fired HC Dennis Allen, per @AdamSchefter. pic.twitter.com/JuUjU2fzr3
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 4, 2024
Allen wasn't getting the job done, but the situation is so bad in New Orleans that there might not be a head coach who can turn this franchise around anytime soon.
Salary Cap Hell
There isn't another team in the NFL dealing with a salary cap situation like the Saints.
According to Over the Cap, the Saints are projected to be $61.5 million over the cap in 2025. Only two other teams are projected to be over the cap, the Seahawks and Browns, but those two teams combined are only about $4 million over the cap.
Instead of embracing a full-on tank, the Saints have spent years restructuring contracts and tacking on void years to bloated contracts in hopes of competing in their division. Now, players like Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, and Derek Carr have millions of dollars in voided cap space being tacked on in 2026, 2027, and beyond.
The Saints did all of that just to finish with a 9-8 record in 2021 and 2023, never winning the NFC South
Kamara was the latest example of the Saints kicking the can down the road. The Saints gave him a two-year, $24.5 million extension in October to keep him in New Orleans but also to spread his cap hit over the next few years. Even when his contract expires in 2026, he'll count for $8.1 million against the cap with voided years in 2027 and 2028.
The image below, courtesy of Spotrac, shows just how massive the voided year values are on the contracts of New Orleans' biggest players.
The Saints have over-utilized void years, and contract restructures to such an overwhelming degree that they're left with few options to get under the cap. According to Jason with Over the Cap, the Saints would need to encourage multiple players to retire and have Derek Carr work with them on tweaking his contract to get under the cap.
It's not like the Saints will be able to overhaul their roster with cheap rookie contracts and draft picks, either. They currently have just six picks in the 2025 NFL Draft and don't have a fifth- or seventh-round selection.
It's not a question of what the Saints want to do but rather what they need to do to get under the cap. If they can't, they risk fines and forfeiture of draft picks, which would make a long-term rebuild even more difficult.
Saints management got the team into this mess by continuing to kick the can down the road. Now, their hands are so tied that they'll need to gut their roster completely next offseason.
An Unappealing Coaching Vacancy
Now that Allen is gone, the Saints are going to try to aggressively find their next head coach. But the situation is so bad in New Orleans that there won't be many appealing options interested in the vacancy.
Along with their salary cap situation, the Saints don't have a competitive roster right now. Outside of players like Chris Olave, Alontae Taylor, and Cesar Ruiz, there haven't been many great draft picks in recent seasons.
Meanwhile, the Saints are tied at the hip with Carr. The contract situation means that they're stuck with him for the foreseeable future, but it's not like he's been a franchise-caliber quarterback. According to NFELO, Carr is 23rd among quarterbacks in success rate.
Even if the next head coach decided to bench Carr, Spencer Rattler doesn't seem like a better option. He is 40th out of 44 qualified quarterbacks in success rate and 43rd in EPA per dropback.
The Saints' being hamstrung by salary cap issues and stuck with a mediocre quarterback will keep them from getting their pick of head coaching options. Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is one of the most popular head coaching candidates, but if he decides he's ready to be a head coach, he'll have his choice of whichever opening.
Why would someone like Johnson choose to coach a team in such a bad spot in 2025 and beyond?
Few Young Building Blocks
Even if the Saints decide to embrace the rebuild, there are few young players who can be used as building blocks going forward.
Thanks to Olave and Rashid Shaheed, wide receiver might end up being the Saints' strongest position in the future. However, both players are dealing with major injury concerns. Olave just suffered his second concussion of the season, putting him at risk for more concussions for the rest of his career.
Meanwhile, Shaheed is out for the season with a torn meniscus. He's expected to return in 2025, but for a player who relies on vertical speed, it's unclear how much the injury will impact him for the rest of his career.
Defensively, the Saints could rebuild an intriguing defense thanks to some promising pieces in the secondary. Marshon Lattimore could be gone in the next couple of offseasons to clear cap space, but Alonte Taylor and Kool-Aid McKinstry have flashed enough to be worthy successors on rookie deals.
Alontae Taylor breaks up a likely TD pass pic.twitter.com/XG6ivzQSsA
— Saints Film Room (@SaintsFilmRoom) November 3, 2024
It's a bleak outlook for a roster that will have to part ways with former stars like Cameron Jordan sooner rather than later.
The Saints need to find some more gems and value in the draft while building around talent at receiver and cornerback to start turning things around in the coming seasons.
