Analysis
10/17/22
9 min read
Five Fantasy Football Takeaways: NFL Week 6
Welcome to The Five Takeaways! Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com. Enjoy!
Fantasy Football’s Best Quarterbacks Are Dual Threats
- The elite fantasy quarterbacks have started separating from the QB1 field. The average points scored among the top-five quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow) is 147.06 fantasy points. The remaining fantasy football QB1s, QB6-QB12, average just 101.05 fantasy points.
- Through an elite combination of passing and rushing, 2022’s top-five quarterbacks are teaching next year’s drafters a lesson.
- The table below shows the top-five fantasy quarterbacks ranked against their peers. For passing statistics, a 100-pass attempt minimum filter was applied. For rushing statistics, a 10-carry minimum filter was applied.
| Quarterback (Fantasy Scoring Rank) | Yards Passing - TD (Rank) | TD/INT Rate (Rank) | Yards Rushing - TD (Rank) | Yards Rushing per Carry (Rank) | Yards After Contact per Carry (Rank) |
| Josh Allen (QB1) | 1,980 (QB1) - 17 (T-QB1) | 4.25 (T-QB4) | 257 (QB4) - 2 (T-QB3) | 5.47 (QB4) | 4.11 (QB3) |
| Lamar Jackson (QB2) | 1,277 (QB18) - 13 (QB3) | 2.17 (QB14) | 451 (QB1) - 2 (T-QB3) | 8.05 (QB1) | 3.64 (QB4) |
| Jalen Hurts (QB3) | 1,514 (QB7) - 6 (T-QB17) | 3.00 (T-QB6) | 293 (QB2) - 6 (QB1) | 3.81 (QB16) | 2.08 (QB7) |
| Patrick Mahomes (QB4) | 1,736 (QB3) - 17 (QB1) | 4.25 (T-QB4) | 113 (QB9) - 0 (T-QB19) | 5.38 (QB5) | 1.05 (QB20) |
| Joe Burrow (QB5) | 1,616 (QB5) - 12 (QB4) | 2.40 (QB11) | 110 (QB11) - 2 (T-QB3) | 4.07 (QB14) | 2.07 (QB8) |
- While Allen is simply a dominant football force, even the rushing-oriented quarterbacks, Jackson and Hurts, find themselves top-six in at least one major passing category.
- Gunslingers Mahomes and Burrow, whose previous knee injuries have somewhat pushed them off of their rushing paces from years past, likewise find themselves top-six in at least one of the major rushing categories.
- The fantasy landscape has changed. Banking on the late-round quarterback strategy is now far too costly to employ with regularity.
- Fantasy managers would be wise to use a bench spot for Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback Malik Willis, if possible.
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Buy Rookie Tight End Daniel Bellinger
- Through five career games, Bellinger has 15 receptions on 17 targets for 139 yards receiving and two touchdowns for the 5-1 Giants.
- Bellinger has taken 246 offensive snaps this year. The table below lists Bellinger’s advanced receiving statistics, ranked in parentheses, among the rest of the NFL’s tight ends. A 200-snap minimum threshold was applied to data from Weeks 1-6, with 100-snap minimums applied to Weeks 1-3 and 4-6.
| 2022 Statistics | Routes Run | Targets per Route Run Rate | Yards per Route Run | PPR Fantasy Points |
| Daniel Bellinger Weeks 1-6 | 100 (T-28th) | 17.0% (T-28th) | 1.39 (T-18th) | 47.1 (TE16) |
| Daniel Bellinger Weeks 1-3 | 49 (T-26th) | 12.2% (27th) | 1.14 (14) | 16.6 (TE23) |
| Daniel Bellinger Weeks 4-6 | 51 (23) | 21.6% (12) | 1.63 (11) | 30.5 (TE11) |
- Bellinger has improved his target-earning ability and increased his yardage efficiency. The per-route efficiency increases are leading to massive fantasy improvements.
- New York averaged 18.66 points per game during the first three weeks of the season. Their per-game scoring average between Weeks 4-6 has risen to 23.66.
- As Bellinger develops as a pass catcher and fellow rookie, wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (knee), gets healthier, everyone in the Giants’ offense will benefit.
- Robinson returned to play in Week 6, after injuring his knee just nine snaps into New York’s Week 1 win against the Tennessee Titans. While Robinson stormed his way to a massive 36.4% targets per route run rate, Bellinger commanded a team-high five targets.
- With two dynamic receiving weapons and do-it-all running back Saquon Barkley, the Giants are on the upswing.
- Fantasy managers who need a set-it-and-forget-it TE1 should add Bellinger off of the waiver wire this week. A talented tight end in a powerful offense is a highly valuable fantasy asset.
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Buy Rookie Wide Receiver Tyquan Thornton
- Thornton kicked off the preseason by flashing his 4.28-second speed on downfield routes, while also deftly working the short-to-intermediate areas of the field.
- Thornton’s exhibition season was cut short with a broken collarbone in preseason Week 2, but the young wide receiver quickly made an impact when he returned.
- While Week 5 brought little to write home about, New England featured Thornton heavily in its Week 6 game plan.
| Week 6 Usage & Statistics | Routes Run-Rec./Tgt.-Yards-TD | Targets per Route Run Rate | Yards per Route Run | Rush Attempts-Yards-TD |
| Week 5 | 14-2/3-7-0 | 21.4% | 0.50 | N/A |
| Week 6 | 26-4/5-37-1 | 19.2% | 1.42 | 3-16-1 |
- Slot receiver Jakobi Meyers, who leads New England in targets, is likely to maintain his high-volume, high-efficiency role as an intermediate-depth weapon. But, Thornton can still carve out a role as either the 1A or 1B option.
- Wide receiver DeVante Parker has operated as the team’s primary perimeter receiver but has struggled to find his footing.
- Parker's 13.1% targets per route run and 1.51 yards per route run rank last among Patriots wide receivers with at least 10 targets.
- Thornton should pass the lackluster Parker well before New England’s Week 10 bye. The time to add Thornton off of waivers is now.
- In Week 7, the Patriots face the Chicago Bears at home. Chicago’s 64.6% catch rate allowed ranks 12th-most in the NFL, per The 33rd Team’s Edge tool.
- In Week 8, the Patriots travel to New York for a bout with the Jets, whose 67.5% catch rate ranks fifth most in the NFL, per The 33rd Team’s Edge tool.
PPR WR1s: Experience Matters Early
- The table below compares the top-12 scoring wide receivers, in full-point per reception (PPR) scoring. The wide receivers are ranked among their peers at the position who have earned at least 30 targets this year.
| PPR WR1s | Current Season | PPR Points (Rank) | Targets per Route Run Rate (Rank) | Yards per Route Run (Rank) |
| Stefon Diggs | 8th | 150.6 (WR1) | 28.4% (WR6) | 2.86 (WR2) |
| Cooper Kupp | 6th | 148.8 (WR2) | 28.9% (WR5) | 2.44 (WR8) |
| Tyreek Hill | 7th | 133.9 (WR3) | 33.5% (WR1) | 3.61 (WR1) |
| Justin Jefferson | 3rd | 132.6 (WR4) | 26.6% (WR12) | 2.76 (WR3) |
| Marquise Brown | 4th | 109.5 (WR5 | 23.8% (WR22) | 1.80 (WR23) |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 2nd | 108.7 (WR6) | 23.9% (WR21) | 1.80 (WR24) |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2nd | 101.0 (WR7) | 24.7% (WR19) | 2.69 (WR5) |
| Davante Adams | 9th | 100.4 (WR8) | 27.1% (WR10) | 2.08 (T-WR16) |
| A.J. Brown | 4th | 95.3 (WR9) | 26.4% (WR14) | 2.50 (WR7) |
| Deebo Samuel | 4th | 91.1 (WR10) | 27.0% (WR11) | 1.98 (WR20) |
| Amari Cooper | 9th | 89.8 (WR11) | 27.9% (WR8) | 1.77 (T-WR25) |
| CeeDee Lamb | 3rd | 87.4 (WR12) | 31.1% (WR4) | 2.12 (WR14) |
- Davante Adams was on a bye in Week 6.
- The top three PPR WR1s have been in the league for at least five years.
- Five of the PPR WR1s are in the year-six-to-nine range.
- Four of the PPR WR1s have played fewer than three full seasons.
- There are no rookies in the PPR WR1 ranks.
- Ten of the PPR WR1s are top 12 in at least one of the per-route efficiency metrics.
- All four of the top-four PPR WR1s rank top 12 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics.
- Per-route efficiency metrics are highly correlated with PPR WR1 production.
PPR WR2s: Volatile Youngsters Are Rising
- The table below compares the top 13-24 scoring wide receiver in full-point per reception (PPR) scoring. The wide receivers are ranked among their peers at the position who have earned at least 30 targets this year.
| PPR WR2s | Current Season | PPR Points (Rank) | Targets per Route Run Rate (Rank) | Yards per Route Run (Rank) |
| Tyler Lockett | 8th | 86.3 (WR13) | 23.6% (WR23) | 2.21 (WR11) |
| Christian Kirk | 5th | 85.8 (WR14) | 21.0% (WR30) | 1.72 (WR30) |
| Michael Pittman Jr | 3rd | 85.7 (WR15) | 21.8% (WR27) | 1.75 (T-WR27) |
| DeVonta Smith | 2nd | 84.7 (WR16) | 20.0% (WR34) | 1.85 (WR22) |
| Mike Williams | 6th | 79.2 (WR17) | 22.6% (WR24) | 2.01 (WR18) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2nd | 78.9 (WR18) | 33.3% (WR2) | 2.32 (WR9) |
| D.K. Metcalf | 4th | 78.6 (WR19) | 25.8% (WR16) | 2.09 (WR15) |
| Mike Evans | 9th | 77.8 (T-WR20) | 18.3% (WR41) | 1.99 (WR19) |
| Curtis Samuel | 6th | 77.8 (T-WR20) | 21.6% (WR29) | 1.24 (WR41) |
| Courtland Sutton | 5th | 77.2 (WR22) | 24.2% (WR20) | 2.19 (WR12) |
| Gabriel Davis | 3rd | 86.3 (WR22) | 11.7% (N/A) | 1.72 (N/A) |
| Chris Olave | Rookie | 75.9 (WR23) | 28.0% (WR11) | 2.59 (WR6) |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3rd | 75.7 (WR24) | 20.8% (WR31) | 1.75 (WR29) |
- Amon-Ra St. Brown sits top 12 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics but has played in just four games.
- Chris Olave missed Week 6 with a concussion. He is top 12 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics. It is only a matter of time until Olave solidifies himself as a PPR WR1.
- Gabriel Davis missed a game with an ankle injury and has just 26 targets on the year.
- Courtland Sutton has not yet played his Week 6 game (Monday Night Football).
- Mike Williams has not yet played his Week 6 game (Monday Night Football).
- Michael Pittman Jr. missed Week 2 with a quad injury.
- Mike Evans missed Week 3 due to a suspension.
- Six of the PPR WR2s have played less than three full seasons.
- Four of the PRR WR2s have been in the league for at least five seasons.
- Four of the PPR WR2s are top 12 in at least one of the per-route efficiency metrics.
- Two of the PPR WR2s are top 12 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics.
- Six of the PPR WR2s rank 13-14 in at least one of the per-route efficiency metrics.
- Two of the PPR WR2s rank 13-24 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics.
- Five of the PPR WR2s rank worse than WR24 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics.
- While per-route efficiency metrics are somewhat correlated with PPR WR2 fantasy production, there is far more volatility in PPR WR2 scoring than in the PPR WR1 group.
- Davis is a player to monitor closely. His usage/production level combination is unique.
- It is possible the variance in the per-route efficiency metrics can be attributed to young players taking on more responsibilities as the year progresses. Another PPR WR1/2 data check-in will be done later in the season and the findings will be compared here.
WATCH MORE: Trey Wingo Recaps NFL Week 6
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