Expert Analysis
12/13/24
12 min read
Four Ups, Four Downs: Bryce Young Improvement, Jameson Williams Big Gains, Russell Wilson Extending Plays
Each week, we'll dive into four good (ups) and bad (downs) things across the NFL. This week we look at Bryce Young's improvement, Jameson Williams big plays, quarterback processing, and more.
All stats from TruMedia unless noted otherwise.
Up: Bryce Young Between The Numbers
Bryce Young’s improvement since his return from benching has a few things behind it. We’ve talked a lot in 1st & 10 and the quarterback rankings about how his comfort in the pocket has allowed him to avoid sacks when pressured. He has one of the lowest pressure-to-sack rates in the league.
That comfort has also increased for his throws between the numbers. During the first two weeks of the season, Young threw 41.1 percent of his passes between the numbers. On those plays, he averaged -0.42 EPA per play with a 34.8 percent success rate. Since his return, Young has kept the rate of throws about the same at 42.9 percent but he’s been more successful throwing to that area, averaging 0.16 EPA per play with a 49.4 percent success rate.
Those numbers aren’t overwhelming on their own, but they do highlight his processing improvement and comfortability in the offense. Production could also be better if receivers caught some passes to that area.
He’s not overthinking these throws and that led to a confidence that has allowed him to fit the ball into some tight spaces. Here’s a 13-yard throw to Adam Thielen against Philadelphia on a third-and-13. It’s placed just high and outside enough to be out of reach of the defender.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 13, 2024
The comfort has also eliminated negative plays. During the first two weeks of the season he threw two picks to that area. Even last season when he had moderate success between the numbers, he threw seven interceptions.
Young doesn’t have a rocket arm like some of the other top quarterbacks in the league and doesn’t have the receivers right now who win on the outside consistently, so having this success in the middle of the field is going to go a long in way in his continued development and can be a safety net as he progresses and more talent can eventually be added on the outside.
Down: Deebo Samuel rushes
It hasn’t been a great season for Deebo Samuel as a receiver. He’s only averaging 1.66 yards per route run with a 19.6 percent target share. Over the past five games, his high in receiving yards is 22. He finished with 16 on Thursday night against the Rams, along with a few drops, one that could have changed the game.
What’s made Samuel so valuable during his tenure with the 49ers has been his versatility. He can line up anywhere, which has been a big part of the San Francisco offense being able to move everyone around. With that, Samuel has become a threat as a runner. Occasionally it’s been jet sweeps and end-arounds but when the 49ers need it, he’s also taken direct handoffs from the backfield.
That hasn’t worked this season. Samuel leads all wide receivers with 34 carries this season. That includes having an extra game on Thursday night but he’s 20 attempts ahead of the next receiver. On rushing attempts, Samuel has averaged -0.25 EPA per play with a 35.5 percent success rate. Last year on 37 carries, he had a 62.2 percent success rate.
The suddenness and agility do not seem to be there, especially on the traditional handoffs when Samuel is running straight into the line.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 13, 2024
It’s been a rough go for Samuel in what’s likely his last as a 49er.
Up: Jameson Williams, varied big plays
One of the questions for the Detroit offense coming into the season was if there would be a second receiver who emerged as a threat. The passing offense had been funneled through Amon-Ra St. Brown and then Sam LaPorta helped as a second option last season. Most of that was done through the short-middle area of the field. If the Lions could have Jameson Williams develop into an explosive option down the field, it could open up so many things for the offense.
Well, Williams has been able to be the explosive player down the field… and he’s also been able to do it on throws to the middle of the field to fit in with the rest of the Detroit offense. Williams is tied for seventh among receivers with 14 plays of 20 or more yards. He’s been able to win deep but also take crossers and run with them for big gains. Here’s where Williams’s big plays have been caught:
Williams can turn anything into a big play. Of the 65 receivers with an average depth of target of at least 10.0, no one has a higher average yards after the catch per reception than Williams at 8.8. His speed plays to both get down the field and eliminate defenders’ angles once he gets the ball in his hands.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 13, 2024
Overall, Williams is 17th in yards per route run and has a higher figure than St. Brown.
Down: Russell Wilson Extending Plays
There has been a lot of good for the Pittsburgh offense since Russell Wilson took over as the starting quarterback. Wilson, in many aspects, has looked more like the player we saw in Seattle than having any resemblance to the struggling quarterback we saw in Denver.
Wilson has gotten the deep ball back and a connection with George Pickens has created enough explosives to carry the offense through the second half of the season. Those famous Wilson moonballs are working in structure but they haven’t had the same success when out of structure.
When Wilson holds the ball for at least four seconds this season, he’s 33rd of 34 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play with the third-lowest success rate. On those plays, Wilson has an 11.6-yard aDOT but averages just 3.4 yards per attempt. The rhythm and precision that come when he reaches the top of his drop and throws deep isn’t there once he’s on the run.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 13, 2024
This is also an area where Wilson’s relative lack of mobility has come up. He doesn’t have the same athleticism to avoid defenders when he’s trying to extend plays. He’s already taken 22 hits on plays that last at least four seasons. That’s the fourth most in the league and Wilson hasn’t been starting for a full season. He’s the only quarterback to take a hit on more than 50 percent of those plays (52.4 percent).
Up: Zack Baun Downhill
The emergence of Zack Baun has been one of the most unexpected developments on an Eagles defense that currently ranks first in weighted DVOA.
Baun was a pass-rusher and special-teamer with the New Orleans Saints. When the Eagles, a team that has historically not invested much at the linebacker position, needed an answer, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio believed Baun could make the transition off the ball.
That’s resulted in Baun's potential All-Pro season. He’s been one of the best all-around linebackers in the league and has been a central piece of the Philadelphia defense's improvement.
His coverage has been impressive. Through Week 14, he’s 10th among linebackers in yards allowed per coverage snap. But the area where he’s flashed his dominance is when he can get downhill. That’s closer to the skill set he had when playing on the edge but he’s taken that a step further and been a bullet in run fits. He leads all linebackers with seven tackles for loss against the run.
Give him an open lane and Baun is going to take it.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 13, 2024
Baun currently leads the league in tackles that produce a positive play for the defense. His 83 such tackles are 13 more than the next defender. He’s a high-volume tackler, but 64.3 percent of his total tackles have produced positive EPA for the defense, which is the second-highest rate for linebackers.
Down: The extra Caleb Williams hitch
Throwing deep has been an issue for Caleb Williams all season. The timing and touch in this offense have not come quite as naturally as some other aspects of his game, even in the sports when things were going well.
There’s just been a tick of hesitation when Williams has tried to let it rip. In some cases, it’s been when he’s been too stubborn to stay in the pocket and make things work. He knows what’s supposed to be happening in the progression and he’s going to make it happen. But often it’s not going to work and he’d be better off trying to get outside and extend the play that way.
Against the 49ers, there were two plays where Williams knew what he wanted to do but it wasn’t open. Instead of moving on, he took an extra hitch to wait it out and fired it anyway.
The first came with Rome Odunze running a double move against Fred Warner. Odunze ran toward Warner before breaking vertically. Instead of ripping the ball when Odunze was making his break, Williams held on for an extra tick until Odunze cleared Warner but by that time the window to fit the ball was nonexistent.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 13, 2024
Later in the game, he had a dig to DJ Moore off a hard play-action from under center. Williams knew he had to move the linebacker to open the throwing lane, but as he tried to do so, it took a few extra hitches. By the time he released the ball, the corner was able to drive on the route and break up the pass.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 13, 2024
Williams has been at his best when playing free and loose. We saw that in the first games under Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator. The whole process looked clunkier with Brown serving as head coach, so we’ll see if some of the process can be sped up in a positive way going forward.
Up: Christian Benford’s Coverage
Christian Benford has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league this season. He’s currently fifth among corners in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap, which adjusts for touchdowns and interceptions.
Benford’s play can be overlooked because he doesn’t have a ton of splash plays in coverage. He only has eight passes defensed and one interception. But his down-to-down consistency in coverage has been huge on the outside for Buffalo.
He plays on both sides of the field and because the Bills play so often in zone coverage, his responsibilities on a given play can vary wildly. But whatever he’s been tasked to do, he’s been sticky in coverage.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 13, 2024
Despite not having many plays on the ball, Benford has allowed a -4.0 percent catch rate over expectation and has forced a tight window on 24.5 percent of his targets, per Next Gen Stats. On plays lasting longer than 2.5 seconds, Benford has forced a tight window on 38.5 percent of targets, which is the fifth-highest among 96 defensive backs with at least 200 such coverage snaps.
His skill will be needed this week against the Lions, as Rasul Douglas and Taylor Rapp have already been ruled out for Sunday.
Down: Misrepresenting the end of Bill Belichick’s Patriots Tenure
With Bill Belichick taking the head coach job at the University of North Carolina, there has been much talk about the end of Belichick’s time in New England and what that could mean for his time at the college level.
There are two things that have stuck out to me as misrepresentations of some of Belichick’s shortcomings. The first is the idea that he stopped being a good coach in the final years with the Patriots. New England won 10 games with a rookie Mac Jones. There’s no excuse for what happened in Year 2 with putting Matt Patricia in charge of the offense but it’s not as if there was no offensive success after Tom Brady left.
Last season, the New England defense ranked fourth in EPA per play. Many of the same players are on this year’s defense, which ranks 26th.
Then there’s harping on how Bill Belichick the general manager didn’t do many favors for Belichick the coach. That’s true but I struggle to see how that’s going to impact his college roster. Sure, the receiver picks were bad, but we’re basing that on things like drafting N’Keal Harry in the first round. You know what N’Keal Harry did in his final two years in college? 2,230 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns.
Recruiting college players and drafting for the NFL are two very different skills. There’s no guarantee that Belichick will thrive in that area at North Carolina, but his track record as an NFL general manager and drafter is not going to be the reason why he does or doesn’t.
