NFL Analysis
1/31/25
9 min read
Four Ups, Four Downs: The Best & Worst of The 2024 Season
Four Ups, Four Downs this week looks back at the 2024 season with some of the most entertaining surprises and disappointments as we take one final breath before diving head first into the Super Bowl matchup.
Up: Andrew Van Ginkel Against Screens
There was a lot to enjoy about the Minnesota defense this season — a chaotic unit that had the pieces in place to make the wild schematic swings from 2023 actually productive in 2024. But one of the highlights was the way Andrew Van Ginkel anticipated screens and swing passes off the line of scrimmage.
Van Ginkel started the season with a pick-6 on a screen against Daniel Jones and the Giants and came close to repeating that multiple times during the rest of the year.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 27, 2024
It wasn’t just the pass breakups. Van Ginkel’s ability to recongize screens and swing passes came through when he wasn’t able to get into the throwing lane. He was often able to catch the receiver for little or no gain.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) January 31, 2025
Down: Miami’s run game
In 2023, the Dolphins came out of the gate with an explosive outside run game. There was a ton of misdirection, which created massive openings for both Raheem Mostert and De’Vobn Achane. Miami finished 2023 ranked first in EPA per play on the ground.
After some losses along the offensive line in free agency, the Dolphins couldn’t replicate the rushing success and became of the league’s worst running teams. Miami still ran 65 percent of rushing attempts to the outside, which was the third-highest rate in the league, but the Dolphins’ lack of a credible inside run game was nearly impossible to overcome.
Defenders were able to sit on those outside runs while Miami rushing attempts between the tackles were stuffed at the highest rate in the league (24 percent), according to Next Gen Stats.
The Dolphins were able to create some workarounds by throwing to running backs in the flat and using that as an outside run replacement but that was not enough to make up for the lack of a traditional run game. Miami finished the season ranked 31st in EPA per play on the ground.
Up: Jayden Daniels Throws Between The Numbers
One of the concerns about Jayden Daniels as a prospect was his lack of throws to the intermediate middle of the field. That’s one of the most valuable areas of the field but in college Daniels often opted for throws outside the numbers and deeper throws down the sideline. There was some concern if Daniels would be able to take advantage of that part of the field in the NFL, where the hasmarks are closer together.
Well, Daniels finished the 2024 regular season with the fifth-highest rate of throws between the numbers and he was routinely able to find throwing lanes to the intermediate level.
On throws between the numbers that went past the line of scrimmage, Daniels ranked 14th in EPA per play. When you consider that even ranking 14th equated to 0.36 per play, he didn’t need to be the best at it for it to have a tangible impact on his game. Just having that available to him at a high rate was more than enough when combined with everything else Daniels brought to the table as a rookie.
This was also a good reflection on “can’t” or “wont” vs “wasn’t asked to” when we evaluate these types of players and their decision-making.
Down: Houston’s offensive adjustments
The Houston Texans were supposed to be the 2024 team that made the leap. After finishing with a 10-7 record, an AFC South title, and a convincing playoff win, the Texans finished 2024 with a 10-7 record, and AFC South and a convincing playoff win. But the circumstances felt much different.
Houston had some cracks in the offensive structure last season that were overcome by stellar quarterback play in high-leverage situations. C.J. Stroud often bailed out poor early-down efficiency with his play on third downs. That didn’t carry over and the cracks for 2024 got bigger.
The Texans could not consistently block along the offensive line while picking up blitzes, stunts, and sim pressures gave the line problems. That put more pressure on Stroud, who started to play like every pass he made needed to be perfect, which often meant they weren’t.
— Dan's Clips (@dansfilmclips) December 27, 2024
It’s a good sign for the franchise that DeMeco Ryans decided to move on quickly from offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik after the season to make sure this slide and disappointment did not continue into 2025.
Up: Rookie Corners
Cornerback has long been one of the positions treated with the most patience for player development. Rarely did cornerbacks come into the league and look like stars. But we’ve seen more of that happen lately. It’s the logical mirror effect to so many wide receivers coming into the NFL prepared because of how much passing is done at lower levels.
Stiil, there arent always great cornerback classes. We got one in 2022 with Sauce Gardner, Derek Stingley, Trent McDuffie, and Kyler Gordon. The 2024 class might be close in terms of rookie impact. The Eagles are will be in the Super Bowl thanks in part to Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the secondary. Mitchell ranked 26th among cornerbacks in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap during the regular season. DeJean ranked 38th.
Houstons Kamari Lassiter joined Stingley and created one of the best cornerback duos in the league as he ranked 24th in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap. We also had Nate Wiggins in Baltimore (22nd) and Tarheeb Still with the Chargers (37th) in the top 40. Higher picks such as Terrion Arnold and Mike Sainristil had the typical rookie ups and downs but flashed top-tier upside throughout the season.
Down: Cincinnati’s Business Decisions
The 2024 season was supposed to be one of clarity for the Cincinnati Bengals. By tagging Tee Higgins in the offseason, the expectation was that this offensive core would get one more ride before everyone got expensive.
All of that was based on a defense that was stripped down to make room for some of those expected contracts on the offensive side of the ball. Instead, the defense ranked 29th in EPA per play and raised the degree of difficulty for the offense to keep the team in games. That led to a 9-8 record and the Bengals missing the playoffs.
Now Higgins is again scheduled to be a free agent (and will again be on the top of free agent lists) while Ja’Marr Chase is set to play the 2025 season on his fifth-year option.
With so much unknown about the defense, the Bengals should be serious about keeping this trio around. But Higgins has leverage because of what he would make as a free agent or on a second franchise tag. Chase has claim to be the highest-paid wide receiver. Joe Burrow has publicly made it known that he won’t be happy if these deals aren’t done.
The Bengals could have been proactive to get both of those receiver deals donw before the marklet exploded again but now Cincinnati is up against the clock for both contracts while there is plenty that needs to be fixed on the other side of the ball.
Up: Pocket Passing Lamar Jackson
Few things were more fun to watch than Lamar Jackson throwing the ball this season. We’ve written about it plenty during the year but the way Jackson because one of the league’s best pure pocket passers is one of the reasons he’s likely to be named MVP for the third time next week.
Jackson has always been a better thrower from the pocket than given credit for because of how well he runs but he took that proficiency to another level in 2024.
Lamar Jackson Plays Inside The Pocket, 2020-2024 (Per TruMedia)
| Year | Drpbcks | EPA/Ply | Success% | Comp% | YPA | aDOT | aDOT u10% | Avg Time To Throw | ExplPass% |
| 2020 | 328 | 0.07 | 45.9% | 66.6% | 7.6 | 8.5 | 71.9% | 2.48 | 14.5% |
| 2021 | 368 | 0.04 | 47.8% | 66.2% | 7.7 | 9 | 69.5% | 2.59 | 14.6% |
| 2022 | 297 | 0.05 | 44.0% | 65.0% | 6.9 | 7.9 | 69.7% | 2.55 | 14.2% |
| 2023 | 435 | 0.04 | 46.6% | 68.4% | 7.9 | 8.3 | 69.9% | 2.50 | 15.3% |
| 2024 | 413 | 0.27 | 50.1% | 69.8% | 8.6 | 7.9 | 66.0% | 2.60 | 17.4% |
Jackson never needed to be the best pocket passer in the league in order to be one of the best quarterbacks but he’s quickly developed into just that.
Down: Whatever the Saints are doing
After two weeks, the Saints had one of the highest point differentials in league history at that point in a season. The teams in recent history that outscored opponents by at least 60 points during the first two games all won at least 12 games in the regular season. The Saints finished the year 5-12.
There are plenty of reasons why the Saints’ year went as it did but the disappointing aspect is how the franchise appears to be reacting. Everything is going to stay the same. Dennis Allen was fired during the year but the prospect of taking over the current Saints has pushed multiple candidates away.
Aaron Glenn didn’t want to interview. Joe Brady wanted to stay in Buffalo. Those are two coaching candidates who know the Saints well. There are varying reports on the amount of interest in Mike McCarthy, but he’s another former Saints assistant who ultimately decided to sit this coaching cyle out.
New Orleans has -$59 million in effective cap space according to Over The Cap. The Saints seem intent on continuing down the path of resturctures instead of putting the wheels in motion for a rebuild. Even if they do start to shed salary, this is a long path to getting in the clear.
