NFL Analysis

10/21/24

8 min read

Grading Every NFC North Team’s 2024 NFL Season So Far

By Tyler Brooke

NFL Analyst
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) walks off the field after the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.

The NFC North has established itself as the most dominant division in the NFL.

Even after the Detroit Lions took down the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, the NFC North has a combined record of 19-6. The Chicago Bears are in last place with a 4-2 record, while every single team in the division has a point differential of at least plus-43 points.

FTN Fantasy's DVOA metric is just as bullish on the NFC North. It has the Lions as the No. 1 team in the NFL, with the Vikings (3rd) and Green Bay Packers (8th) rounding out the top 10 while the Bears rank 18th.

The pecking order in the division will start to shake itself out with more divisional matchups, but as of right now, the NFC North is the league's most dominant division, with all of the teams meeting or exceeding expectations.

Things could change in a few weeks, but through Week 7, let's grade all four NFC North teams compared to their preseason expectations.

Detroit Lions (5-1): A

The Detroit Lions came into the 2024 season with Super Bowl aspirations. So far, they're on track as the team to beat in the NFC.

In addition to being the top overall team by DVOA, the Lions rank in the top 10 in DVOA by offense (4th), defense (6th), and special teams (8th).

The team's success is highlighted by an unbelievable hot streak from Jared Goff. In his last four games, he's completed 83.5 percent of his passes for 1,086 yards, nine touchdowns, and just one interception. As ESPN's Adam Schefter points out, the Lions have more touchdowns during that run than Goff has incompletions.

Meanwhile, the defense is led by dominant performances on the back end from Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. The two safeties have already combined for eight interceptions and 16 pass breakups through six games.

The bigger concern going forward is how the Lions will address their pass-rushing depth now that Aidan Hutchinson is out for the season. The team could make a trade for another veteran pass rusher, but they still have a couple more weeks before the trade deadline.

This grade isn't about looking at the future, however, and the Lions have done just about everything that could have asked for through their first six games.

Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones
Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones (33) celebrates by jumping into the stands following the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images.

Minnesota Vikings (5-1): A+

This season could have gone in a completely different direction for the Minnesota Vikings.

The vibes plummeted in the preseason when first-round rookie QB J.J. McCarthy suffered a torn meniscus that ended his first NFL season before it even began. Instead of rolling with the former Michigan Wolverines national champion, the Vikings turned to the veteran in Sam Darnold.

Darnold revived his NFL career with the opportunity to be Minnesota's starter. Head coach Kevin O'Connell has helped set him up for success, and he's rewarded the team by posting a 104.0 passer rating with 12 touchdowns and just five interceptions.

While Darnold has come back to earth a bit in the last two games, the Vikings' defense continues to play with its hair on fire.

Defensive coordinator Brian Flores leads the No. 1 defense by DVOA thanks to an aggressive mentality and a dominant front seven that includes Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Ivan Pace Jr., who are dominating opponents.

There isn't another team in the league this year that's exceeded expectations quite like the Vikings. They're firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball, and their dominant defense has them looking like a serious threat and potential Super Bowl contender.

Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (85) celebrates his touchdown reception during the second quarter at Lambeau Field. Mark Hoffman via the USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin-Imagn Images.

Green Bay Packers (5-2): B+

Like the Lions, the Green Bay Packers came into the year with Super Bowl aspirations after a surprising playoff run in 2023. While things haven't gone exactly according to plan, the Packers are still in good shape with a 5-2 record and an upcoming game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 8.

With Jordan Love fully healthy, the offense is starting to find its identity. They have a top-five offense by DVOA thanks to a balanced offensive attack that includes a versatile run game and a passing game that isn't afraid to push the ball down the field.

Josh Jacobs has been an unsung hero, establishing himself as a workhorse back with 120 carries, the second-most rushing attempts in the league. He's also fourth in the league with 540 rushing yards, and according to PFF, he is averaging 3.43 yards after contact per attempt with 23 forced missed tackles.

Defensively, Jeff Hafley has completely turned around a unit that hamstrung the Packers' success in 2023 under Joe Barry. Despite not recording a turnover on Sunday, the Packers are still first in the league with 17 takeaways. No other team has more than 14.

Hafley put on a defensive masterclass on Sunday against the Houston Texans, holding C.J. Stroud to 55 net passing yards while pressuring him on more than 50 percent of his dropbacks (h/t TruMedia). The Packers defensive coordinator drew up all kinds of unique pass rush concepts to throw the Texans off and have them struggling to account for all of Green Bay's extra rushers.

Despite all of this, the Packers are still trying to figure out their special teams. A bad snap nearly cost their chances at a win on their game-winning field goal against the Texans, while blunders in that phase of the game continue to hurt them.

Still, this team seems to have yet to live up to its potential, and that should scare the rest of the division.

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) greets fans after the second half against the Los Angeles Rams at Soldier Field. Matt Marton-Imagn Images.

Chicago Bears (4-2): A-

Chicago Bears fans are on cloud nine right now. Along with a 4-2 record, it looks like they've finally shaken off their quarterback curse by finding a future superstar in Caleb Williams.

Williams has looked more and more comfortable in Chicago's offense with each passing week. He had the best game of his career in London before the bye week, dominating the Jaguars by throwing for 226 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception for a 124.4 passer rating.

He had one of the most efficient performances by a quarterback all season, generating 0.53 EPA per play.

Credit: RBSDM.com

What's scary for opponents is that Williams has yet to unlock the most exciting part of his game, the deep ball. After dominating throws 20-plus yards downfield in college, according to PFF, Williams has just a 44.1 passer rating on the deep ball, completing 22.2 percent of his passes with four interceptions.

While Shane Waldron works on finding ways to unlock Williams' deep ball, the Bears' defense continues to play at a high level. They have the eighth-best defense by DVOA this season, including the second-best pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 72.8 passer rating against their defense, which is the worst mark in the NFL.

Kevin Byard has quietly been one of the best free agent signings in the NFL. Along with just one missed tackle on 39 total tackles, he also has three pass breakups and this impressive interception against the Carolina Panthers.

Things couldn't be going better for the Bears right now, but that could change in a hurry. They have, far and away, the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, and they've yet to play any of their NFC North games.

Things might not go well down the road, but as of right now, the vibes are immaculate in Chicago.

Tags: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers See More

Tyler Brooke

NFL Analyst

Tyler is an experienced NFL writer who has been covering the NFL since 2012. His work has been featured on Bleacher Report, FanDuel, SB Nation, and a number of other sites. Along with more than 12 years of experience covering the NFL, Tyler also co-authored "The Science of Football" and is an assistant football coach at Carmel High School in Indiana.

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