Analysis
7/28/23
9 min read
Grading NFL's Latest Signings, Extensions as Training Camps Open
NFL general managers have been busy signing and extending several top players this week. In some cases, teams are looking to keep players before they hit free agency and lock up young players for many years to come.
In other cases, the salary cap is motivating a few of these deals. General managers and team-cap experts are well aware all players on the roster count in the regular season as opposed to just the top 51 now.
Here’s my analysis of seven deals recently completed with grades for the team and the player.
Grades for Recent Signings, Extensions
Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets
Here’s a big switch: With his move to the New York Jets, Aaron Rodgers seemingly has changed from the league's most self-centered player, who wanted to extract every last dollar from the Packers (especially after they drafted Jordan Love), to a kinder, gentler, team-focused quarterback who just agreed to take a $35 million pay cut over this year and in 2024.
The 39-year-old is a four-time league MVP and 10-time Pro Bowler obviously loves working with his new teammates, coaches and being in the nation’s largest market. His renegotiated contract is $112.5 million through three years plus three voidable years to lower the cap hits early on. He now has $75 million (guaranteed) coming in the 2023 and 2024 seasons.
Rodgers helped the Jets tremendously cap-wise with the structure of this contract, which includes low cap numbers of $9 million this year and $17.2 million next year. The 2023 cap hit is an increase from the absurd $1.165 number that was in place after Rodgers moved his $58.3 million option bonus to 2024 when the trade was made. But that resulted in an untenable $107.55 million cap number in 2024.
This restructuring makes it work for both parties. Rodgers has a no-tag clause for 2025, so he can hit free agency or re-sign with the Jets if he still wants to play. He also has a no-trade clause in the deal. There’s huge dead money potential for the Jets down the road, but they’ll deal with that in exchange for a couple of playoff seasons.
Rodgers can afford to give up some money in the contract, knowing he can make it up in endorsements, especially if he leads the Jets to the promised land. This is a Tom Brady-like move to take less money for the team to have more flexibility to add a better-supporting cast for a player who wants to win another Super Bowl (and would love to stick it to the Packers in the process).
Will the Jets sign Dalvin Cook in part because of Rodgers' generosity? We'll have to see.
New York Jets Grade: A
Aaron Rodgers Grade: A
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Since this is Justin Herbert’s all-important second contract, he couldn’t afford to give the Los Angeles Chargers a home-town discount. Thus, Herbert temporarily becomes the league’s highest-paid player in terms of new money with his five-year, $262.5 million extension. He’ll be surpassed by Joe Burrow and probably Patrick Mahomes if he chooses to renegotiate his $45 million per year deal, which ranks below many less-accomplished quarterbacks.
Herbert’s deal includes $194 million in guarantees and a no-trade clause. He also can earn an extra $2.5 million for each Super Bowl win. The contract actually comes in at $296 million over seven years since it includes the last two years on his rookie deal.
That brings the per-year average down from $52.5 million to a more reasonable $42.3 million for a talented player who only has a 25-24 career record and no playoff wins on his resume. We can't forget last season's disastrous loss in the wild-card game when the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead. They scored only three points in the second half, and Herbert completed 10 of 19 passes for 134 yards and no TDs in that second half.
Herbert still has much to prove, and the Chargers are betting big-time on his future success.
Los Angeles Chargers Grade: B-
Justin Herbert Grade: A-
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Saquon Barkley claims to have had “an epiphany” when he decided to ditch the idea of holding out all season after not getting a long-term contract done while under the $10.1 million franchise tag. It was a smart move on his part to swallow his pride and sign as an undervalued top running back when he didn’t have a better option.
The $900,000 in incentives was a creative way to make the contract more palatable for Barkley. However, it’s risky he allowed the New York Giants to tie the individual incentives for 1,350 rushing yards, 65 receptions and 11 total TDs to the team making the playoffs again. Remember the Giants play in the tough NFC East.
Despite Barkley's injury history, it’s a big win for the Giants to get their versatile Pro Bowl running back in camp. He had an excellent 2022 season, recording 1,312 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs and 57 catches for 338 yards. He also put up 109 combined yards and two TDs in their wild-card round upset win in Minnesota.
Now, the second overall pick in the 2018 draft likely will have to go through the same process with the franchise tag next year unless he has a monster year to aid his cause for a long-term deal with a significant guarantee or an awful, injury-filled season in which case the G-Men may set him free and follow top teams such as the Chiefs and Eagles by going with inexpensive running backs.
New York Giants Grade: A
Saquon Barkley Grade: B
Andrew Thomas, OT, New York Giants
When Barkley runs off left tackle, he’ll follow the blocking of Andrew Thomas, who will be making more than twice as much money as Barkley. That’s life in today’s NFL for an elite, 24-year-old offensive tackle coming off a Second-Team All-Pro season compared to a back who is considered easier to replace.
Thomas signed a five-year, $117.5 million extension ($67 million guaranteed). That makes him the second-highest-paid tackle in the league (behind Laremy Tunsil) given his $23.5 million average per year in new money. Since he had two years left on his rookie deal — including the fifth-year option the Giants exercised — Thomas is now under contract for seven years.
Thomas has improved greatly since he was the fourth pick in the 2020 draft. He struggled in his rookie season and dealt with an ankle injury that landed him on injured reserve in 2021. However, he was a key to the offensive line ranking fourth in rushing last season, and did a fine job in pass protection for Daniel Jones.
New York Giants Grade: A
Andrew Thomas Grade: A
Tytus Howard, OT, Houston Texans
Tytus Howard was the Houston Texans' first-round pick in 2019 (No. 23 overall) and the first Alabama State player to be a first-round choice. Howard missed 12 games during his first three seasons with various injuries; he shuttled between right tackle, left tackle and left guard. He settled in at his best spot — right tackle — last season and started every game, committing zero holding penalties and allowing just three sacks.
Howard is playing under his fifth-year option for $13.2 million this season before his extension kicks in next season at $56 million over three years ($36.5 million guaranteed). The deal puts him among the NFL’s highest-paid right tackles at $18.7 million per year based on his new money. His total compensation is $69.2 million over four years.
Howard has not reached a Pro Bowl level yet. However, he has raised his level of play to the point he and Tunsil are considered among the league’s best bookend tackles. They should be a big help to rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Houston Texans Grade: B+
Tytus Howard Grade: A-
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
Cole Kmet signed a four-year, $50 million extension ($32.5 million guaranteed), which ranks ninth among tight ends with his $12.5 million per year in new money. He’ll earn $10.6 million per year, including his $3 million salary this year before the extension takes effect. It’s a solid deal for Kmet, who has not been a Pro Bowl player yet.
The former second-round pick in 2020 had 50 receptions for 544 yards and seven TDs last season. His catches and yards were down from 2021 (60 catches, 612 yards), but he had no TD receptions that year, so he became a more significant red zone and goal-line target last season.
Kmet is also a good run blocker for the Chicago Bears, who led the league in rushing last season (due in large part to quarterback Justin Fields’ 1,143 rushing yards). Kmet is a durable player with only one game missed in his first three seasons.
He is the starter and will work with free agent signee Robert Tonyan when the Bears utilize two tight ends.
Chicago Bears Grade: B
Cole Kmet Grade: A
Trey Hendrickson, DE, Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals gave their leading pass rusher (with 22 sacks and six forced fumbles in the past two seasons) a one-year extension with $21 million in new money, including $5 million this season and $16 million in 2025. He was originally drafted by the New Orleans Saints in the third round in 2017 and joined the Bengals on a free-agent deal in 2021 for $60 million over four years.
This extension takes Trey Hendrickson through the 2025 season and should give the Bengals some cap savings they can put toward Burrow’s impending extension. It could also help them with possible extensions for two other top players who are potential 2024 free agents — wide receiver Tee Higgins and linebacker Logan Wilson.
The 28-year-old Hendrickson has been selected to the Pro Bowl in each of his two seasons in Cincinnati. He has been among the league’s best pass rushers going back to his final season in New Orleans (13.5 sacks in 2020).
Hendrickson says he wanted to stay with the Bengals, but the team got the better of this negotiation. He deserves to be paid more than his $16.2 million average when the NFL’s top pass rushers are making $25-28 million per year. He’s also a key defender on a Super Bowl contender, which increases his value.
Cincinnati Bengals Grade: A+
Trey Hendrickson Grade: C
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter at @jeffdiamondnfl.
