NFL Analysis
11/19/24
8 min read
Green Bay Packers Are Super Bowl Pretenders Despite 7-3 Record
The Green Bay Packers have shown flashes of greatness this season, but serious flaws are keeping them from being a Super Bowl contender.
A game-winning field goal block against the Chicago Bears moved the Packers to 7-3. The Athletic's playoff projection model now gives them an 80 percent chance at making the playoffs, with a chance to take an even bigger jump this week with a win against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12.
Their record suggests that the Packers have a shot at making a deep playoff run. However, major concerns on both sides of the ball are holding a young but talented team back from Super Bowl contention.
Don't Blame It on Love
It's easy to point to Jordan Love as an issue for the Packers as the NFL's co-leader in interceptions. However, the former first-round quarterback isn't holding Green Bay back, even with all of the turnover-worthy plays.
Love threw his 11th interception of the season on Sunday, sailing a throw to a wide-open Tucker Kraft in the red zone for a costly turnover. However, despite that interception, Love still generated an impressive 0.52 EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.
In fact, Love's 12.1 EPA was more than his counterpart for the Bears in Caleb Williams, who had 11.2 total EPA despite having twice as many dropbacks in the game.
Williams was credited with having one of his best games as a pro, while Love was heavily criticized for his interception. However, outside of that throw, Love was dialed in, fitting throws into tight windows, avoiding pressure in the pocket, and even launching a deep shot to Christian Watson for one of the biggest plays of the game.
In fact, three of Love's best throws of the game were on targets to Watson.
Jordan Love played on All Madden when he targeted Christian Watson this week. 2nd rep is spicy. pic.twitter.com/7d0NLVtv22
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) November 18, 2024
Sunday's game against Chicago was another example of Love's aggressive play style. He's not afraid to push the ball deep, as he's tied for fourth in the NFL with an aDOT of 9.5 yards. That leads to explosive plays, but it also comes with risk, which is a big reason why he has so many interceptions.
The Packers seem content in living with the feast-or-famine play style with the passing game. Despite the turnovers, it's not one of the main reasons why this team is being held back from Super Bowl contention.
Offensive Growing Pains
Green Bay's offense should eventually be firing on all cylinders. Love appears to be healthy after dealing with knee and groin injuries to start the season, and Josh Jacobs has emerged as one of the NFL's best workhorse running backs.
Still, there are a few concerning aspects of the offense that need to be fixed before the playoffs.
Red zone efficiency is holding Green Bay's offense back from being considered an elite unit. The Packers have scored a touchdown on just 48.72 percent of their trips inside the 20-yard line this season, the 27th-best rate in the league.
There are a few reasons for those struggles, but penalties have arguably been the biggest one. According to TruMedia, the Packers have committed nine offensive penalties in the red zone this season, the third-most in the NFL, resulting in -2.63 EPA.
Sunday's game was a great example of penalties stalling out a drive into the red zone. After starting on their own 24-yard line, Green Bay marched all the way downfield before facing a second and 1 from Chicago's five-yard line. An ineligible man downfield penalty from Elgton Jenkins moved the Packers back five yards, and the next two plays were a negative run from Jayden Reed and Love's interception.
The Packers also struggle with running the ball once inside the 20. Per TruMedia, the Packers are 24th in the NFL with just 2.2 yards per carry in the red zone, but only three teams behind them have fewer rushing touchdowns in the red zone.
Outside of the red zone, the Packers are still waiting for all of their young receivers to reach their full potential. Watson had one of the best games of his career on Sunday, while Reed has established himself as a top NFL slot receiver.
However, second-year WR Dontayvion Wicks is experiencing a brutal second-year slump. The former Virginia wideout flashed as a receiver who could consistently get open for Love as a rookie in 2023.
Unfortunately, drops have completely crippled Wicks' effectiveness this season. He has the lowest catch rate in the NFL among players with at least 25 targets, and some of those drops have come in crucial moments for the Packers.
Wicks is still a tremendously talented receiver with the potential to be a real contributor to Green Bay's offense. However, until he can cut down his drops, it'll be a lot harder for Love and head coach Matt LaFleur to trust him in big moments.
Three-Level Defensive Disaster
Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley became an overnight sensation in Green Bay, and his defense led the league in takeaways for most of the season. However, like any defensive coordinator, Hafley has also taken some lumps, including in Sunday's win against Chicago.
Green Bay's pass rush has emerged as a massive weakness. Heading into Week 11, the Packers ranked 29th in pass rush win rate, struggling to consistently get into the pocket to disrupt opposing quarterbacks. According to Pro Football Focus, only one player on Green Bay's defense has generated more than 16 pressures through the team's first 10 games.
Rashan Gary is supposed to be the team's premier pass rusher, but he's struggled to get home this season, racking up just 3.5 sacks. The good news is that a breakout could be coming as Gary gets acclimated to Hafley's new defensive scheme.
The pressure stats indicate that Gary is getting more comfortable. According to PFF, Gary generated just six total pressures in the team's first five games. That number has jumped up to 19 pressures in the last five games while coming away with at least half of a sack in three of the last four games.
This is the Rashan Gary we need to see for the rest of the season pic.twitter.com/EI10FD97ML
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) November 19, 2024
The pass rush has big questions to answer, especially after the team gave Preston Smith his wish with a trade to the Pittsburgh Steelers at the deadline. Former first-round EDGE Lukas Van Ness has yet to have the impact Green Bay was hoping for, while the team is now having to rely on unheralded players like Brenton Cox Jr. and Arron Mosby for pass-rushing reinforcements.
Despite all of the concerns with rushing the passer, the bigger concern for the defense is LB Quay Walker. A first-round pick back in 2022, the Packers have been as patient as possible with Walker in his three NFL seasons, allowing him to continue to play through mental errors and missed tackles when healthy.
Unfortunately, Walker continues to struggle despite playing more than 2,300 snaps in the last three seasons. Sunday's game perfectly encapsulated the player Walker has become, hesitating when making the right read and struggling to use his athletic ability and play strength effectively at the point of attack.
The clip below shows some of Walker's (No. 7) most glaring missed assignments.
#7… pic.twitter.com/gsyuWF6bIe
— Andy Herman (@AndyHermanNFL) November 18, 2024
Walker's most damning play came on a massive fourth down conversion for the Bears. Playing as a spy, Walker had a free shot at Williams in the pocket but froze in place, leading to a completed pass instead of a sack and turnover on downs.
Despite consistent mistakes, Walker has never seen a reduction in playing time when healthy. The Packers even had some depth at linebacker this year, with rookie Edgerrin Cooper emerging as a potentially electric player at the position. Meanwhile, Isaiah McDuffie and Eric Wilson are flawed but experienced veterans who have flashed at times.
Even third-round rookie Ty'Ron Hopper could be available, but he's been designated to special teams duty up to this point.
Green Bay also has some concerns in its secondary, especially when star CB Jaire Alexander can't play. Keisean Nixon has been an adequate starting slot cornerback during the last couple of years, but injuries have forced him to kick outside, where he's struggled. Per PFF, he's already allowed a career-high four touchdowns when targeted, and teams are continuing to throw at him when he's playing outside.
There are problems at all three levels of Green Bay's defense, and at least right now, it doesn't seem like there are many answers to fix them.
