NFL Analysis
1/18/25
6 min read
Have C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans Already Reached Their Ceiling?
It’s not hard to be impressed by the rebuild of the Houston Texans. After winning just 11 total games from 2020-2022, the Texans have won the AFC South in back-to-back seasons and have won a playoff game in each of their postseason trips.
But in both cases, the Texans lost by double digits (before the safety) in the conference round, and they don’t feel any closer to making it to the AFC Championship Game. This was supposed to be the year that they took the next step, and at times, it felt like they did. However, in too many games, they made mistakes that Super Bowl-caliber teams don't make.
Houston had plenty of chances to beat Kansas City in Round 2, but a myriad of mistakes in all three phases cost them a chance to steal a game on the road. The special teams problems were obvious. The Texans missed a field goal, had another blocked, and missed an extra point. And on the first play of the game, they allowed a massive kickoff return that put Kansas City at Houston’s 13-yard line.
The Texans were the first team to outgain their opponent by more than 100 yards, not turn the ball over, and lose a postseason game, according to ESPN Stats.
We could go over each Texans' mistake in this game, but the game wasn’t decided until late in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs were in control throughout, but the Texans had their chances. Should the Texans feel “OK” about their battle with the Chiefs and their potential future? Or will this feel like a missed opportunity for the Texans while having a franchise quarterback under a rookie contract? That is up for debate.
What Went Wrong In 2024?
After a successful 2023 campaign, the Texans went all-in this offseason to compete with the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens atop the AFC. They traded for Stefon Diggs and signed Danielle Hunter to a monster contract. Hunter ended up being a steal, and the duo of him and Will Anderson Jr. might be the best in the NFL. Diggs was playing well before a torn ACL ended his season, so it’s hard to be too critical of their moves. We should also mention the addition of Joe Mixon proved to be a smart one.
Houston had the right thought process this offseason, but injuries decimated its roster and shredded the roster's depth. However, one spot where it didn’t make massive changes was on the offseason line, and it was ultimately costly.
The Texans decided to rely on veterans with the hope that the unit would gel as the season went on. However, the coaching staff constantly moved players around, and they had no continuity all year. While it’s easy to fault the players, coaching needs to share some of the blame. Against the Chiefs, the Texans asked Dalton Schultz to block George Karlaftis 1-on-1 in multiple big-play situations. That is way too big of an ask for Schultz, who has never been known as a blocker.
George Karlaftis takes down Stroud for a turnover on downs!
— NFL (@NFL) January 18, 2025
📺: #HOUvsKC on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/VWKVvzdD5e
The offensive line looked confused, and the number of times we saw free rushers hit Stroud was absurd. Bobby Slowik was a hot name last offseason and had multiple head coaching interviews, but his offense looked stale and did not do any favors to help his young quarterback at all this season.
The Chiefs defense sacked C.J. Stroud eight times and pressured him on 51.2 percent of his dropbacks on Sunday. Of the Chiefs' 17 blitzes, 12 generated pressures on Stroud, including eight from unblocked, according to Next Gen Stats.
A lot went wrong for the Texans this season, especially in a year when they were hoping to take the next step. Stroud took a step backward, and the constant pressure around him, combined with the injuries at receiver, led to a sophomore slump. However, Stroud’s performance in these last two playoff games should give Houston fans a lot of hope moving forward.
Stroud was sacked eight times against the Chiefs, and you can argue that only one or two were his fault. He did nearly everything possible to avoid most of these sacks and used his legs to bail the Texans out in several spots.
He completed 19-of-28 passes for 245 yards, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. While the offense only scored 12 points, it sure looked like the Texans have a quarterback who can go toe-to-toe with the top quarterbacks in the AFC.
How Far Away Are The Texans?
So what do the Texans need to do to get over the hump in the AFC? That is a hard question, especially considering that Stroud is already going into Year 3 of his rookie deal. He should continue to improve, but with the injury status of Tank Dell and Diggs expected to hit free agency, the Texans could benefit from adding another receiver to pair with Nico Collins.
Houston has accomplished the hardest part of rebuilding in the NFL: finding a franchise quarterback. But everything around him needs to be scrutinized this offseason.
Changing the offensive system to help protect Stroud could and should be an option after what transpired this year. Houston can’t afford to have Stroud take that many hits again, and that should be obvious considering his physical status leaving the Divisional Round.
The Texans aren’t THAT far away from the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills in the AFC. However, they do need to reinvent themselves this offseason. That’s how the other three have managed to stay atop the conference during the last several years. At the same time, it sure doesn't seem like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen are going away anytime soon.
The Texans have a quarterback near that level, but they will need to build a roster around Stroud to better compete against the top teams. In their last three games against the Chiefs (twice) and Ravens, the offense scored a combined 31 points. That is not acceptable against top-tier competition.
What will Year 3 of the rebuild look like in Houston? And can DeMeco Ryans and the rest of the coaching staff figure out how to make this team more quarterback-friendly? If the answer is yes, we could see the Texans right back in this spot in 2025
