Analysis
11/15/22
9 min read
High-Value Touch Report: Week 10 Fantasy Football Rushing & Receiving Data
Welcome back to the Week 10 installment of the high-value touch report. I examine the rushing and receiving data in the red zone, goal-to-go and third/fourth down situations. Fantasy football is humbling, and sometimes the most logical and data-focused analysis doesn't pan out. Or the one-game sample turns into a trend we might have missed.
With more and more data each week, there are more trends and outliers. We also observe trends that shift for a team within a season, like the Bears and Seahawks. Sometimes, we find certain players over or underperforming for various reasons with potential buys and sells based on the high-value touches and underlying metrics. The goal is to use the data and see where it leads us instead of using data to fit the narrative. That said, let’s dive into the Week 10 high-value touch report.
[bc_video video_id="6315581498112" account_id="6312875271001" player_id="default" embed="in-page" padding_top="56%" autoplay="" min_width="0px" playsinline="playsinline" picture_in_picture="" language_detection="" max_width="640px" mute="" width="100%" height="100%" aspect_ratio="16:9" sizing="responsive" ]
High-Value Touches: Season-Long Red Zone Rushing
In Week 10, vintage James Conner came alive with seven carries in the red zone with two rushing scores for the Cardinals. Conner garnered an 80.8% team rush share (No. 4) and an 8.6% target share (No. 21) in Week 10. His seven red zone carries added up to 15 (No. 28) through Sunday night.
Conner handled a heavy workload, with Keaontay Ingram taking the only other running back touch in a positive game script against the Rams. In surprising news, the Cardinals released Eno Benjamin after being effective in Conner's absence earlier this season.
It's yet another week where the Lions gave Jamaal Williams the majority of the carries, especially in the red zone. Willams scored one touchdown on six rushing attempts, putting him back in first in high-value carries in the red area. Bills RB Devin Singletary is the most intriguing player among the red zone high-value touch leaders. In Week 10, Singletary had four red zone carries, with a season-long total of 15. Singletary scored his only two touchdowns of the season with his four carries.
The 49ers activated Elijah Mitchell off injured reserve and gave him a ton of work in Week 10. Mitchell edged Christian McCaffrey in rush share (45% to 35%), but McCaffrey boasted a 21.4% target share (No. 4). In the red zone, Mitchell finished with seven carries versus McCaffrey's four. On one of the game's final drives, the 49ers fed Mitchell with three attempts in a goal-to-go situation, which led to him finishing with more. Although the 49ers won against the Chargers, it seemed unexpected to have Mitchell eat into McCaffrey's rushing workload. However, it's logical to balance McCaffrey's touches since he'll be efficient with a heavy involvement as a pass catcher.
High-Value Opportunities: Season-Long Red Zone Receiving
Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz and Vikings WR Justin Jefferson tied with four red zone targets in Week 10, with Schultz scoring twice. Then, Jaguars WR Christian Kirk caught all three red zone targets for two touchdowns as the Jaguars attempted to keep up with the Chiefs. Jefferson surpassed Chiefs TE Travis Kelce on the red zone target leaderboard, though Kelce reeled in a receiving score. Kirk ranks third in season-long high-value opportunities in the red zone with the second-most touchdowns behind Kelce.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence favors Kirk, especially in the red area, with Kirk hauling in seven touchdowns on 15 targets. Heading into Week 10, Kansas City allowed the second-most fantasy points per game (PPR) to slot receivers, and Kirk averaged 28.2 (No. 3) slot routes per game. The Jaguars have a Week 11 bye week, with some friendly and challenging upcoming matchups. Treat Kirk as a WR2 with upside, though it's tempting to entertain trade options.
High-Value Touches: Goal-To-Go Rushing
As mentioned earlier, McCaffrey and Mitchell garnered a hefty workload near the goal line. The duo of 49ers backs tied for the Week 10 lead of four carries each in goal-to-go situations. Williams and Swift each scored a rushing touchdown, though Williams had a 51.6% rush share (No. 15) and Swift at 19.4% (No. 50). Without Swift's touchdown, he would've had seven touches for 12 total yards. While it's positive to see Swift score, his usage is concerning. We probably shouldn't sell low on Swift, but hopefully, the role will trend positively soon.
[bc_video video_id="6315588625112" account_id="6312875271001" player_id="default" embed="in-page" padding_top="56%" autoplay="" min_width="0px" playsinline="playsinline" picture_in_picture="" language_detection="" max_width="640px" mute="" width="100%" height="100%" aspect_ratio="16:9" sizing="responsive" ]
The Commanders beat the previously undefeated Eagles and rushed 49 times, with 40 attempts going to Brian Robinson (26) and Antonio Gibson (14). Through 10 weeks, the Commanders average 28.8 carries per game (No. 8). However, they ranked 15th in Pass% (60%) and 17th in Rush% (40%). In Week 10 goal-to-go situations, the Commanders gave Gibson three and Robinson two carries, and both scored a touchdown. On the season, Gibson surprisingly tied for fourth with 11 high-value touches. However, he mustered a measly nine rushing yards through 10 weeks.
The other two running backs with fewer than 10 rushing yards in goal-to-go situations and double-digit carries include Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette and Texans RB Dameon Pierce. Expect Robinson and Gibson to continue dominating the Commanders' backfield touches with J.D. McKissic injured, and they sneakily have the 11th-best schedule for running backs. If the Commanders' backfield goes from three to two backs, we'll want to acquire Gibson and Robinson. Gibson is the preference for receiving opportunities, and he ranked sixth in total high-value touches before Week 10.
[bc_video video_id="6315522759112" account_id="6312875271001" player_id="default" embed="in-page" padding_top="56%" autoplay="" min_width="0px" playsinline="playsinline" picture_in_picture="" language_detection="" max_width="640px" mute="" width="100%" height="100%" aspect_ratio="16:9" sizing="responsive" ]
The Buccaneers Backfield
In Week 10, Fournette scored a rushing touchdown on two high-value touches in goal-to-go situations. Fournette moved into a four-way tie with ten high-value rushes on the season. Unfortunately, Fournette left with a hip pointer issue, which led to Rachaad White further making his mark. Through three quarters in Week 10, Fournette and White tied with 14 carries, but White bested him in rushing yards (65 to 57). Fournette had one target with White at zero.
White rushed eight times for 40 yards, with Ke'Shawn Vaughn as the only running back with one target when Fournette left in the fourth quarter. Heading into Week 10, Fournette ranked third in high-value touches behind Chargers RB Austin Ekeler and Bengals RB Joe Mixon. On the season, Fournette ranked eighth in EP/G. However, Fournette's EP/G (12.3) dipped to 22nd from Weeks 7-9, with White's EP/G going from six to 7.3. We could see Tampa Bay giving White a heavy workload, or it's more likely they mix in a second back like Vaughn. Regardless, White's value skyrockets if Fournette misses any time.
High-Value Opportunities: Goal-To-Go Receiving
As one of the leaders in high-value opportunities in the red zone, Schultz tied for three targets in goal-to-go situations with Jefferson. With Cowboys QB Dak Prescott returning in Week 7, Schultz has a 21.3% target share (No. 6). Although Schultz missed two of the first six games, he only garnered a 9.4% target share (No. 25). It's probably a mix of Schultz's injuries and Prescott being out, but Prescott leans on his tight end, which gives him a safe floor.
Cardinals TE Zach Ertz will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury, which should mean more high-value opportunities for WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore and Conner. Since the Cardinals played with a positive game script in Week 10, Conner received the high-value touches with seven carries (No. 1). The Cardinals have the 10th-best schedule for running backs, and Conner could benefit from Ertz's injury. However, look for Hopkins and Moore to garner high-value opportunities where Ertz operates underneath with 7.94 air yards per target (No. 66). We already know my love for Moore, who we'll discuss more soon.
Third & Fourth Down Receiving Opportunities
Jefferson had seven (No. 1), and Raiders WR Davante Adams had six (No. 2) targets on third and fourth down in Week 10. Then a trio of fun names tied for fourth with five in Moore, Chargers WR Josh Palmer and Packers' rookie WR Christian Watson. Commanders WR Terry McLaurin snuck in with six targets on third and fourth down on Monday night, with a massive 44% target share (No. 1). With Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, McLaurin ranks fifth with a 31.9% target share and fourth with 370 receiving yards from Weeks 7-10.
Here's a fun stat – Watson caught three of his four receptions for 100 receiving yards and two scores. The Packers needed an explosive receiver, and it's positive to see Packers QB Aaron Rodgers lean on Watson in crucial situations. Watson battled injuries and took time to become relevant, but he possessed the much-needed athleticism, with a 95th-percentile Speed Score and 97th-percentile Freak Score. Athleticism isn't the main driver of receiving talent and production, but the Packers need an explosive option in the passing game.
In one of my earliest articles for the site, I wrote about Moore as a cheaper alternative at wide receiver along with 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk. Part of my interest in Moore involved the yards after the catch ability with his breakaway speed and historically low AY/T. Although Cardinals QB Kyler Murray missed Week 10, Moore garnered a healthy target share at 37.1% (No. 7) through Sunday night, behind Hopkins at 40%. Moore remains a PPR machine as a WR2/3 with a solid floor.
Meanwhile, Palmer added to his season-long total of 20 targets on third and fourth down. In Weeks 9 and 10, without Mike Williams, Palmer earned the third-most targets (10) in these situations. Justin Herbert targeted Palmer as a WR3 with a 23.1% target share and the 11th-most targets (18). Palmer only trails Ekeler in targets (20) over the past two weeks. Treat Palmer as a volume-based receiver, though Herbert hasn't been efficient with 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt through Week 9.
WATCH MORE: Week 10 Fantasy Football Recap
[bc_video video_id="6315527855112" account_id="6312875271001" player_id="default" embed="in-page" padding_top="56%" autoplay="" min_width="0px" playsinline="playsinline" picture_in_picture="" language_detection="" max_width="640px" mute="" width="100%" height="100%" aspect_ratio="16:9" sizing="responsive" ]
