Analysis
10/25/22
9 min read
High-Value Touch Report: Week 7 Fantasy Football Rushing & Receiving Data
Welcome back to the Week 7 installment of the high-value touch report. I examine the rushing and receiving data in the red zone, goal-to-go, and third/fourth down situations. Unfortunately, injuries headlined Week 7, and Josh Larky covered that Sunday evening with the Fantasy Fallout. However, it's a weekly game, and we must do our best to react and plan accordingly.
With more and more data each week, there are more trends and outliers. Sometimes, we find certain players over or underperforming for various reasons with potential buys and sells based on the high-value touches. It's the challenging question of whether we move an overperforming player in hopes of cashing in on another player based on the underlying metrics. Let's dive into the Week 7 high-value touch report while highlighting season-long leaders in each category.
High-Value Touches: Week 7 Red Zone Rushing
In Week 7, Bengals RB Joe Mixon and Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker tied for first with six carries in the red zone. Mixon and Walker also both scored their second touchdown when given these high-value touches. Falcons rookie RB Tyler Allgeier finished second with five high-value rushes and a rushing score. Atlanta continued to run the ball when trailing, especially in the second half. Against the Bengals, Falcons QB Marcus Mariota went 3-for-6 for 28 passing yards in the second half.
From Weeks 4-7, the Falcons ranked last with 17.8 pass attempts per game. In Weeks 1-3, the Falcons' average of 26.3 passing attempts per game was second to last. It's been frustrating for Kyle Pitts and Drake London fantasy managers since fewer pass attempts mean fewer routes and fewer targets.
Two other highlights in Week 7 involve Cardinals QB Kyler Murray and RB Eno Benjamin, who had four red zone rushes each. Murray didn't run in a touchdown, but Benjamin converted one. Since the Cardinals typically run a lot of plays, even rookie RB Keaontay Ingram recorded four red zone carries with a rushing score. In Week 7, the Cardinals ran 60 total plays, with the fourth-most plays and the highest no-huddle rate through Week 6. Benjamin has been a viable zero-RB option, but usual starting RB James Conner is expected to return, which complicates things.
High-Value Touches: Season-Long Red Zone Rushing
Before heading into the season-long red zone high-value touches, let's analyze Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Gus Edwards (Ravens) and Josh Jacobs (Raiders). They're the only three backs to score three rushing touchdowns with at least three high-value rushes in the red zone in Week 7. Later on, we'll see if they pop on the high-value touches section in goal-to-go situations.
Before Monday night, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts led all players in red zone rushing attempts, with Mixon, Nick Chubb (Browns) and Saquon Barkley (Giants) as the only ones with 20-plus carries. Chubb and Kareem Hunt continue to have a consistent role in the red zone, so they should command high-value touches moving forward. Hunt hasn't been as efficient. He has two touchdowns and nine rushes per TD versus Chubb's six scores with 3.5 rushes per TD.
The Jaguars backfield has belonged to Travis Etienne instead of James Robinson for the past few weeks. Robinson didn't garner a carry in Week 7 and only logged one target to even show up in the box score. Etienne had four red zone carries with one rushing touchdown, plus 12 total rushing attempts, tied for 20th. On Monday night, the Jets acquired James Robinson from the Jaguars following Breece Hall's injury, which makes Etienne an RB1. Ryan Reynolds broke down the fantasy impact of the James Robinson trade to help us sort it out.
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High-Value Opportunities: Week 7 Red Zone Receiving
49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk ranked first with three red zone targets in Week 7, yet he only had one reception for six receiving yards in the red zone. Aiyuk led the 49ers with a 23.9% target share in Week 7 and had a productive day catching seven of 11 targets for 82 receiving yards. Meanwhile, we have an uber-efficient game for Saints TE Juwan Johnson, with two red zone targets and two receiving touchdowns. In Week 7, Nyheim Hines (Colts), Antonio Gibson (Commanders) and Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) remained the most intriguing running backs with two red zone targets.
With the Colts playing from behind, Hines stayed on the field more than usual when they ran their no-huddle offense. Per TruMedia, Jonathan Taylor had nine opportunities (five carries and four targets) in no-huddle situations, with Hines at three carries and two targets. In Week 6, the Colts ranked first with a 44% no-huddle rate. tying them for ninth overall. Although the no-huddle and red zone usage didn't overlap for either back, keep an eye on the Colts' backfield usage.
Only 3 RBs have run at least 20 routes each of the past 4 weeks
Leonard Fournette
Joe Mixon
Raheem Mostert 🤯Mostert is the sneakiest bell cow in fantasy football
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) October 24, 2022
In Week 7, Mostert continued to dominate the Dolphins backfield with 21 opportunities (16 rushes and five targets) versus Chase Edmonds with nine (7 carries and two targets). On the season, Mostert has a 5% target share with a small but steady involvement in the receiving game, with 17 total in six games.
Mostert garnered five targets for only the third time in his career. The past two times were in Week 2 of 2022 and Week 1 of 2020. If Mostert maintains his high-value opportunities and receiving opportunities, he'll push toward a high-end RB2 role.
High-Value Opportunities: Season-Long Red Zone Receiving
Through seven weeks, not including Monday night, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce and Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase rank first and second in red zone targets, though each only had one in Week 7. According to TruMedia, the Bengals totaled the most yards (537), with Tyler Boyd (155) and Chase (130) as the top two receivers in yards.
Unsurprisingly, Kelce tied with 49ers TE George Kittle and ranked seventh with 98 receiving yards in Week 7, as the Chiefs totaled the second most yards. To oversimplify, we want pieces of above-average offenses since elite players like Chase and Kelce thrive in all facets.
High-Value Touches: Goal-To-Go Rushing
In Week 7, Benjamin, Elliott and Allgeier garnered three high-value rushes in goal-to-go situations. Elliott scored two touchdowns, with Benjamin and Allgeier scoring one. On a positive note, Edwards returned from his injury and scored two rushing touchdowns on two goal-line carries for Baltimore.
Apologies for any Kenyan Drake enthusiasm since the Ravens went to Edwards, who accounted for 16 carries or 50% of the backfield rushing attempts. Jacobs joined Edwards and Elliott with two scores in goal-to-go situations. Jacobs, Edwards and Elliott took advantage of rushing defenses that ranked in the lower half in total defensive rush EPA/G.
With Conner sidelined in Weeks 6 and 7, Benjamin garnered four high-value rushes and tied Conner with six total. Hall tied for fourth in season-long goal-to-go carries, but again, he's for the season with an ACL injury. Jets backup RB Michael Carter has four high-value touches in these situations. But, he took a backseat from Weeks 4-6 with a 10% target share and a 26% rush share.
Meanwhile, Hall garnered a 58% rush share and 14% of the targets. Rookies often take on a larger role as the season goes on, which occurred after Carter led the Jets backfield through three weeks. As noted earlier, the Robinson trade muddies the Jets' backfield and any enthusiasm surrounding Carter.
High-Value Opportunities: Goal-To-Go Receiving
We'll focus on the season-long data for the high-value opportunities in goal-to-go situations since it's an uber-small sample in Week 7. It's no surprise to find Kelce and Chase atop the leaderboards in high-value opportunities. Although Garrett Wilson didn't have a goal-to-go target in Week 7, there's a scenario where the offense becomes more pass-heavy with Hall injured.
With Elijah Moore unhappy with the usage after Week 6, and Corey Davis leaving the game, Wilson could be the Jets' top pass-catching option. The Jets went from 52 pass attempts per game (No. 1) to 25.5 (No. 27) over the past four games. It makes sense for the Jets to lean on their most talented options. However, they're winning games with their run-heavy and defense-focused formula.
The other player that catches our eye includes Mecole Hardman, with five total high-value opportunities tied for ninth. Hardman scored one touchdown on his only goal-to-go target in Week 7. He scored a second touchdown on a rushing attempt from the three-yard line. Hardman went in motion, and Patrick Mahomes handed it off as he ran to the other end of the field to score. Don't expect this to be the norm for Hardman, but you lucked into production if you started him.
Third & Fourth Down Receiving Opportunities
Three players had five or more targets on third and fourth downs in Week 7. They include Chris Godwin (6), Michael Pittman (5) and Chris Olave (5). Value these three receivers as WR1s or high-end WR2s.
Olave ranks 16th in weighted opportunity rating (WOPR), which combines targets and air yards shares. Since Godwin returned from injury in Week 4, he totaled the second-most targets at 41 behind Tyreek Hill. Pittman tied for third in targets with 39 since Week 4, but his target share hovers at 23.1%, with other Colts Alec Pierce, Deon Jackson and Parris Campbell eating into his opportunities.
Jerry Jeudy (Broncos), Terry McLaurin (Commanders) and Curtis Samuel (Commanders) garnered four targets on third and fourth down in Week 7. That indicates these receivers garner high-value opportunities from their respective quarterbacks. On the season, Jeudy, McLaurin and Samuel coincidentally tied for 18th with 16 targets in these situations.
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Jeudy caught our eye since he ranks second with 214 receiving yards on third and fourth down behind Cooper Kupp. Let's hope that continues for Jeudy since he also ranks 10th with 21.4 slot routes per game. This allows him to take advantage of certain defensive matchups.
Diontae Johnson (Steelers) is the only receiver inside the top 10 targets with less than 100 receiving yards. If we scroll further, CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) and D.J. Moore (Panthers) are tied with 17 third and fourth down targets. Lamb has 91 receiving yards and Moore has 94 in such opportunities.
If we exclude Godwin since he missed time, Brandin Cooks (Texans) and his 45 receiving yards on 16 targets puts him in the Johnson category. Buy low on Johnson and Cooks, given their high-value opportunities. Cooks ranks 198th in FPOE/G but 21st in EP/G. Meanwhile, Johnson ranks 11th in EP/G and 203rd in FPOE/G.
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