NFL Analysis
12/23/24
5 min read
How Jaguars' Brian Thomas Jr. Became NFL's Best Rookie Wide Receiver
Malik Nabers had the early-season breakout, but it's Jacksonville Jaguars first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. who has emerged as the best rookie wide receiver in the NFL.
Despite continuing to catch passes from backup QB Mac Jones, Thomas put up another 132 yards and a touchdown on nine receptions. The Jaguars lost to the Las Vegas Raiders, but Thomas Jr.'s performance put him at over 1,000 receiving yards on the year.
Even though the Jaguars are in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, they hit a home run with their first-round pick from the 2024 NFL Draft.
Brian Thomas Jr.'s Path to the NFL
MY GOODNESS @BrianThomas_11 JUST MOSSED THAT MAN
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) October 16, 2022
📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/5VM5a3yzB2
In retrospect, teams should have been higher on the 6-foot-4 receiver with breakaway speed coming out of a top-tier program like LSU.
Thomas was a 4-star recruit coming out of high school in Louisiana despite not playing football until the 10th grade. His size and athletic ability still drew significant attention from all of the top SEC programs, but Thomas decided to stay in his home state to play for the Tigers.
It took some time for him to find his footing, but by his final college season, Thomas had become an electric deep threat catching passes from Jayden Daniels alongside fellow future first-round wideout Malik Nabers. He finished the 2023 season with 68 catches for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Along with that production, Thomas tore up the pre-draft process with some impressive measurables. His prototypical 209-pound frame was ideal for an outside receiver, but combined with a 38.5-inch vertical and a 40-yard dash time of 4.33 seconds, made him one of the most impressive height-weight-speed prospects in the entire draft.
However, Thomas wasn't taken until the 23rd overall pick. In fact, three other receivers went before the former LSU star in Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Rome Odunze. There were concerns that Thomas only won at the college level because of the talent around him and his athletic ability rather than winning with route running and the ability to create separation.
That hasn't been the case, as Thomas has firmly established himself as the league's top rookie receiver.
What Makes BTJ So Good?
Thomas might be one of the best examples of NFL teams overthinking a prospect.
The Jaguars rookie has continued to win at the pro level with size and explosiveness. He's been a deep threat regardless of who is under center, making some highlight-worthy plays off of deep shots. According to Pro Football Focus, the rookie has caught eight passes (three of which were contested) for 325 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 40.6 yards per catch when targeted on passes 20-plus yards downfield.
60 yard bomb to Brian Thomas Jr. pic.twitter.com/lTdCvBrtAZ
— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) October 20, 2024
In addition to that big-play potential when targeted deep, Thomas has also drastically improved from a technique standpoint, particularly on his releases against press coverage.
Given his size, he's naturally a difficult matchup, especially when lined up in the slot, but it's his ability to manipulate defensive backs with his release that's made him an even more lethal weapon in the NFL.
Brian Thomas Jr. has a disgusting release game.
— Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) December 16, 2024
His footwork at the stem is beautiful. He plays it low and off the insides of his feet.
DB is playing inside leverage, so he sells the outside fake hard with his entire body.
This demands a lot of violence from his lower body. pic.twitter.com/CeWKZMFp7V
This combination of talent and technique has made Thomas one of the most efficient weapons in the NFL.
With 2.37 yards per route run and an average depth of target of 11.9 yards downfield, he compared almost identically to the likes of George Pickens and Mike Evans this season despite having shaky quarterback play for a large part of the year.
With the playoffs out of reach, the Jaguars have decided to see what Thomas can do with a full workload during the last couple of weeks. Jones has been targeting Thomas as much as possible, with the rookie catching 19-of-27 targets for 237 yards and three touchdowns in the last two games.
It's been a tremendous year for a player who is still learning the finer points of the receiver position, and Thomas' future is even brighter going forward.
Thomas Has All-Pro potential in 2025
Don't sleep on Thomas becoming one of the best wide receivers in the league in 2025.
This recent run of production suggests that Thomas can handle the responsibilities of being a top target on an NFL roster. He'll also get his franchise quarterback back in 2025, with Trevor Lawrence returning to the field to help him get even more involved in the offense.
In addition to Lawrence's return, the Jaguars will likely be moving on from Doug Pederson for a new head coach and likely an entirely new coaching staff. If they can find the right person to run the offense, the Jaguars will find even more creative ways to get Thomas the ball.
That's an exciting proposition for one of the league's brightest young stars, who has the potential to take a huge leap forward in 2025.
