Expert Analysis
3/12/24
6 min read
How Kirk Cousins Will Transform Atlanta Falcons' Offense
A few hours after the official start of the NFL's free-agent tampering period, the Atlanta Falcons came to terms with veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Cousins landed a four-year, $180 million contract, with $100 million guaranteed. Because $10 million of that guarantee is a roster bonus in 2026, it's essentially a two-year deal through 2025.
New Falcons coach Raheem Morris telegraphed a major move at the position earlier in the offseason, saying better quarterback play in 2023 would've made the difference in whether the coaching job was open or not. He's not wrong. Atlanta axed Arthur Smith after he foolishly put faith in Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. Don't forget, the Falcons opted against pursuing Lamar Jackson last offseason.
At least Morris was proactive in addressing the issue.
Ridder, in his second NFL season, struggled with inconsistent decision-making and accuracy. This shouldn't have been surprising, either. He wasn't the sharpest passer in college nor did he stand as a pre-snap savant entering the league. He was a project, and the cost was significant because the Falcons missed the playoffs and wasted a season of Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson's rookie contracts.
Conversely, Cousins brings a familiar game to Atlanta just two years after the team failed to land Deshaun Watson and moved on from Matt Ryan.
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Cousins' Game Should age well
The Falcons' string of starting quarterbacks post-Ryan couldn't consistently connect on the short game. Throws from the line of scrimmage up to 10 yards aren't physically difficult but require a quick processor who knows what they're seeing pre- and post-snap. There are only a few passers in the NFL who do it better than Cousins.
The 35-year-old is coming off a torn Achilles, so his ability to immediately contribute at his usual level is a huge storyline. Cousins performed as well as ever in his eight games in 2023 before the injury, posting near-career highs across the board. Even his sack rate was close to an all-time low despite not having Dalvin Cook to take pressure off the passing game.
Suddenly increasing in efficiency at his age is unusual, but Cousins' game is suited to age well. As long as his arm strength doesn't nosedive in the next two years, the Falcons will get what they want from the veteran. His steady hand will feed the team's top options with quality targets.
The knock on Cousins throughout his entire career has been a fair one. He's struggled when the lights get bright. Whether in primetime or in the playoffs, Cousins often falls short of reaching the NFL's elite playmakers.
Whether it's a jaw-dropping turnover, a penchant for checking down or taking a bad sack, Cousins has led the charge for being a good but not good enough quarterback to win it all. Atlanta, which had the 26th-ranked scoring offense in 2023, can't worry about his upside right now. Morris simply needs an adult in a room filled with youngsters who need to grow into stars.
Cousins' Strengths Are Tailor-Made for Falcons' Offense
Half a year's worth of data and film won't change the book on Cousins, but he showed better pocket manipulation and movement despite being 35 last season. His time to throw increased to 2.86 seconds, which was middle of the pack and longer than Ridder's 2.7-second mark. Cousins' completion rate was 4.6 percent higher than expected, the third-best difference in the NFL.
His average air yards per attempt dropped to a below-average 7.2 yards, but the NFL has been shifting toward dinking and dunking as defenses play with multiple safeties to take away bigger plays. Minnesota also aided this change after adding Jordan Addison to the offense and moving away from its run-heavy approach.
A quicker-paced passing game that features a ton of motion under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson makes sense for Cousins. Atlanta also inked speedster Darnell Mooney. And Robinson called the most 11 personnel (three receivers, one running back) plays in the NFL by a whopping 11 percent margin last season. As currently constructed, we should see London, Pitts and Mooney on the field almost every snap.
Atlanta should also add another player to the room since their talent beyond their top receivers is non-existent. It's a good thing the 2024 NFL Draft class is as deep at the position as we've seen in a decade. These playmakers will benefit from Cousins' ability to hit them in stride and Robinson's scheme's ability to generate yards after the catch.
The Rams ranked sixth in yards after the catch per completion in 2023, largely thanks to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Robinson's offense had an average depth of target of 7.5 yards, almost matching Cousins' average yards per attempt. He'll be a natural fit, even if his arm is half as strong as Matthew Stafford's.
The advanced numbers on Cousins' 2023 play match his film. He was third in true completion rate, second in clean pocket completion rate and eighth in completion rate while under pressure. Only two quarterbacks had a better catchable pass rate, and no one had a higher catchable pass rate under pressure or passer rating against zone.
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PlayMakers Can Help Overcome Cousins' Deficiencies
Cousins' deep ball and red zone accuracy were middling despite having Justin Jefferson and Addison, though. His passer rating and completion rate against man were subpar, ranking 23rd and 24th, respectively. Those figures have to improve for Atlanta to be more than just an NFC South winner and actual postseason presence.
Those have been crippling limitations to Cousins' game throughout his career, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him start slowly in 2024 in a new offense, city and franchise.
Plus, the strain of recovering from an Achilles injury forces a tough balance and risk of injury to the other leg. It's uncommon for someone with Cousins' excellent raw stats to not be a Hall of Famer, but it speaks to how much he's struggled when the pressure is at its highest. He's played in only five playoff games in four trips to the postseason, producing his one win in seven years with Minnesota.
At its peak, the Falcons' offense should be consistently high-functioning and threatening. While Cousins will lift the unit between the 20s, it'll be up to Robinson, London, Pitts and Mooney to compensate for Cousins' struggles with tight-window throws in the red zone.
If they can, and if Morris can squeeze the most out of a defense that has mediocre talent, then the Falcons might be a threat in the postseason.
