Analysis
1/30/23
11 min read
Important Championship-Week Stats for Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl Matchup
Welcome to the NFL playoffs recap series. Each week, The 33rd Team’s Nic Bodiford will break down the results of the most recent playoff round, offering thoughts for NFL fans, fantasy football players and sports bettors.
This article will provide you with important stats from the past weekend for the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl matchup and will provide you with information on the Bengals and 49ers that could help when considering players from those teams in fantasy football this offseason.
Eagles 31, 49ers 7
Summary
- Per Ryan Reynolds’ NFC Championship line report, Philadelphia opened and closed as -2.5-point home favorites. Philadelphia covered the spread in the first quarter
- The game total similarly opened and closed with a 45.5-point over/under. The under cashed with ease
- San Francisco converted two of eight third downs
- Philadelphia converted five of 15 third downs
- On six fourth downs, San Francisco punted four times and failed to convert a pair of attempts. Both attempts were Deebo Samuel rush attempts. One was a fumbled reverse
- On nine fourth downs, Philadelphia punted five times, successfully kicked one field goal and converted all three attempts to go for it, one of which included a highlight-reel 29-yard reception by wide receiver DeVonta Smith that should have been ruled incomplete. Philadelphia controversially scored two plays later
- Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, running back Elijah Mitchell and tight end Ross Dwelley were among San Francisco’s inactives
- No. 4 running back Trey Sermon and No. 3 slot defensive back Josiah Scott were among Philadelphia’s inactives. Starting slot cornerback Avonte Maddox (turf toe) returned from a four-week absence
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Philadelphia Eagles
- The Eagles compiled 148 yards rushing on 44 rush attempts for four touchdowns rushing
- Quarterback Jalen Hurts (15 of 25 passing for 121 yards passing) averaged just 4.84 yards passing per attempt despite producing his fourth-highest average depth of target (9.72 yards) of the season
- Hurts’ 20.0% rate of passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield was his third highest
- Hurts churned out tough yards on the ground averaging 3.55 yards per rush on 11 attempts (39 yards rushing), punching in one touchdown. His 2.36 yards after contact per rush led the team
- Miles Sanders starred in the first half, taking 10 rush attempts for 39 yards rushing and two touchdowns rushing. Sanders split the two-minute-drill snaps three-to-three with No. 3 running back Boston Scott
- No. 2 running back Kenneth Gainwell took all six third-and-fourth-down snaps with three or more yards to go
- Up 21-7 at halftime, Gainwell operated as the second-half clock-killer, taking 11 rush attempts for 27 yards. His 13.00 yards per reception (two receptions on three targets for 26 yards receiving) were a single-game career-high. His 2.36 yards per route run led the team by 0.98
- Sanders did not play in the fourth quarter
- A.J. Brown (four receptions on eight targets for 28 yards receiving) earned an alpha-sized 30.8% targets per route run and produced a pair of double-digit yardage gains
- San Francisco coverage linebacker Fred Warner briefly exited the game in the first quarter to address a stinger. Philadelphia quickly looked to tight end Dallas Goedert (26.1% targets per route run) after the injury, and he efficiently caught five-of-six targets for 23 yards receiving
- No. 2 wide receiver Smith finished the day with a team-high 36 yards receiving via two receptions on three targets. His fool’s-gold 29-yarder was the longest produced by either team
- Philadelphia’s second-ranked regular-season pass rush (38.2% regular-season quarterback pressure rate) racked up 18 total pressures (19.6% quarterback pressure rate) and three sacks
- Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave forced and recovered a fumble
San Francisco 49ers
- Quarterback Brock Purdy suffered both a UCL sprain and an ulnar nerve injury on just his third dropback and was replaced by journeyman Josh Johnson
- Johnson suffered a concussion early in the third quarter, thrusting Purdy back into the game despite not being capable of throwing the ball
- San Francisco quarterbacks completed just six of eight pass attempts in the second half, averaging a measly 4.50 yards passing per attempt
- Samuel (three receptions on six targets for 33 yards receiving) led the team with 30.0% targets per route run
- Hoping to engineer a comeback, coach Kyle Shanahan got cute with run-game reverses resulting in a six-carry, -9 yard rushing line for Samuel
- Samuel’s regular-season 232 yards rushing and three touchdowns rushing led all receivers
- Among 54 regular-season NFL wide receivers with at least 75 targets, Samuel finished first with 8.80 yards after catch per reception
- No. 2 wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk finished with just one reception on one target for 10 yards receiving. Aiyuk posted regular-season career bests in targets (114), receptions (78), yards receiving (1,015) and touchdowns (eight). His 1.91 yards per route run were 0.17 better than his prior best
- Tight end George Kittle (three receptions on four targets for 32 yards receiving) led the team with 1.78 yards per route run and a 22-yard receiving gain
- Kittle’s 11 regular-season touchdowns receiving trailed only Travis Kelce’s 12, and Kittle’s longest reception of 54 yards ranked third
- Christian McCaffrey shouldered the conference championship load, posting game highs in rush attempts (15) and yards rushing (84). He added one touchdown rushing and caught all four targets for 22 yards receiving
- McCaffrey joined San Francisco in Week 7 via trade. The table below ranks in parentheses McCaffrey’s rushing data in Week 7-18 among 49 NFL running backs with at least 50 rush attempts during that span
| NFL RB Rushing - Weeks 7-18 | Rush Att. - Yards Rushing | TD - Longest Gain Rushing | Yards per Rush Att. | Yards After Contact per Rush Att. |
| Christian McCaffrey | 159 (No. 12) - 746 (No. 10) | 6 (T-No. 9) - 38 (No. 21) | 4.69 (No. 18) | 2.61 (No. 42) |
- The table below ranks in parentheses McCaffrey’s receiving data in Week 7-18 among 32 NFL running backs with at least 25 targets during that span
| NFL RB Receiving - Weeks 7-18 | Targets - Rec. | Yards Rec. - TD | Per Routes Run Rates: Targets - Yards | aDot - Yards After Catch per Rec. |
| Christian McCaffrey | 65 (No. 3) - 52 (No. 2) | 464 (No. 1) - 4 (T-No. 2) | 26.0% (No. 7) - 1.86 (No. 4) | 1.95 (No. 6) - 7.71 (No. 13) |
- Mitchell (groin) was inactive. His bummer of a season included Grade 2 MCL sprains
- Undrafted free agent rookie running back Jordan Mason (5-foot-11, 223-pounds) produced an efficient season
- Among 11 NFL rookie running backs with at least 40 rush attempts, Mason’s 6.0 yards rushing per attempt led the field by 0.21, and his 4.23 yards after contact per rush attempt led by 0.10
- The sturdy back looks like a long-time contributor in Shanahan’s backfield
- Third-round rookie running back Tyrion Davis-Price failed to total 100 yards rushing on the year
Chiefs 23, Bengals 20
Summary
- Per Ryan Reynolds' AFC Championship line report, Kansas City opened as both -1.0 and 1.5-point home favorites. They closed as -2.0-point home favorites and covered the spread with 30 seconds left
- The game totaled opened and closed with a 47.5-point over/under
- Cincinnati converted six of 14 third-down attempts
- Kansas City converted seven of 14 third-down attempts
- On six fourth downs, Cincinnati punted four times, kicked one field goal and converted their lone attempt to go for it
- On seven fourth downs, Kansas City punted four times, kicked two field goals and scored one touchdown
- Left tackle Jonah Williams, left guard Alex Cappa and running back Chris Evans were among Cincinnati’s inactives
- Wide receiver Justin Watson was among Kansas City’s inactives
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- Despite playing through a high-ankle sprain, quarterback Patrick Mahomes sailed past the 300-yard passing mark, totaling 326 yards passing and two touchdowns via a 67.4% completion rate
- Mahomes’ 105.4 NFL passer rating beat the conference championship field by 14.8
- Mahomes moved surprisingly well, averaging a team-high 2.33 yards after contact per rush attempt
- Kansas City suffered significant losses in the wide receiver corps. JuJu Smith-Schuster exited because of a knee injury, Kadarius Toney reportedly suffered an ankle injury and Mecole Hardman reaggravated his pelvis injury
- As is tradition, Toney continued producing preposterous per-route efficiency (66.7% targets per route run and 3.00 yards per route run). He had a touchdown called back as an incompletion
- Downfield Z-receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling produced team-highs in both yards receiving (116) and yards receiving (29) while tying tight end Travis Kelce with eight targets. Both men scored touchdowns
- Valdes-Scantling rocked an exceptional 2.97 yards per route run, and Kelce finished second on the team with 78 yards receiving
- Disappointing rookie wide receiver Skyy Moore earned a career-high seven targets, but he had just three catches for 13 yards
- Rookie running back Isiah Pacheco flashed his trademark Tasmanian Devil violence but as a rusher and a receiver. While his hard-fought 26 yards rushing on 10 rush attempts fail to jump out of the box score, his sublime receiving work does
- The table below ranks in parentheses Pacheco’s receiving data among seven running backs with at least one target from this past weekend
| Conference Championship RB Receiving | Per Routes Run Rates: Targets - Yards | Targets - Receptions | Yards - Yards per Reception | Longest Gain Receiving |
| Isiah Pacheco | 24.0% (No. 4) - 2.36 (No. 2) | 6 (No. 1) - 5 (No. 1) | 59 (No. 1) - 11.80 (No. 2) | 18 (No. 1) |
- The table below shows Pachecho and Jerick McKinnon’s usage data
| Kansas City RB Usage | Total Snaps | 3rd & 4th Down w/ 3+ Yards To Go - 2-Min. Drill | Snaps: Red Zone - Green Zone | Rush Att. - Routes Run - Targets |
| Isiah Pacheco | 37 | 2 - 1 | 4 - 0 | 10 - 25 - 6 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 26 | 9 - 2 | 4 - 1 | 4 - 15 - 4 |
- McKinnon produced just one yard rushing but caught two passes for 17 yards receiving via a 26.7% targets per route run rate. He registered more than five pass-blocking snaps for just the fourth time this season
- Defensive linemen Chris Jones and Frank Clark combined for seven quarterback pressures and 3.5 sacks. Rookie defensive end George Karlaftis registered one sack
- Slot cornerback L’Jarius Sneed suffered a first-quarter concussion
- Quarterback Joe Burrow threw for 270 passing yards and rushed for 30 more. He added one touchdown passing and two interceptions
- Burrow was under pressure much of the night, reducing him to a 63.4% completion rate
- Among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 200 regular-season pass attempts, Burrow ranked top three in both completion rate (68.3%) and touchdown passes (35). His 4,475 yards passing ranked No. 5
- Burrow’s 257 yards rushing and five touchdowns were both career-highs
- Wide receivers Tee Higgins (six receptions on 11 targets for 83 yards receiving and one touchdown) and Ja’Marr Chase (six receptions on eight targets for 75 yards receiving) led the way
- Higgins' 28.9% targets per route run and 2.18 yards per route run were much-needed high notes after a down season. His regular-season 20.3% targets per route run were the lowest of his career, and his 1.92 yards per route run was 0.35 yards fewer than last year
- Chase’s season was slowed by a hip injury but among 54 NFL wide receivers with at least 75 targets, he ranked 11th in targets per route run (25.9%) and 16th in yards per route run (2.02)
- Slot receiver Tyler Boyd’s middling two-catch, 40-yard showing accurately reflects his 2022 regular season
- Tight end Hayden Hurst caught four-of-five targets for 37 yards receiving. His 7.96 regular-season yards per reception were the lowest of his five-year career
- Joe Mixon took a backseat to No. 2 running back Samaje Perine
- The table below shows their conference championship usage
| Cincinnati Bengals RB Usage | Total Snaps | 3rd & 4th Down w/ 3+ Yards To Go - 2-Min. Drill | Snaps: Red Zone - Green Zone | Rush Att. - Routes Run - Targets |
| Joe Mixon | 19 | 0 - 1 | 3 - 1 | 5 - 10 - 3 |
| Samaje Perine | 34 | 12 - 15 | 4 - 3 | 8 - 32 - 4 |
- Perine outrushed Mixon both on a per-rush-attempt basis (4.40-to-2.38) and on a yards-after-contact-per-rush-attempt basis (3.00-to-1.75). Perine scored the team’s lone touchdown rushing
- Mixon impressively logged a 30.0% targets per route run rate
- Mixon, 26, worryingly finished below 4.00 yards per rush attempt (3.88) for the second time in three years
- Perine finished with the best regular-season targets per route run (21.4%) of his six-year career. Miraculously, Perine tied his 1.21 yards per route run from 2021
- Among 51 NFL running backs with at least 25 targets, Perine finished top 10 in yards after the catch per reception (8.45) and top five in touchdowns receiving (four)
- Cincinnati’s pass rush generated just an 11.7% quarterback pressure rate
WATCH: Super Bowl LVII Preview
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