NFL Analysis
1/23/24
7 min read
Is Patrick Mahomes–Lamar Jackson NFL's Next Great QB Rivalry?
We’ve seen a lot of Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. We’ve gotten a bunch of Mahomes vs. Joe Burrow. Mahomes and Justin Herbert play twice a season (when healthy) as division rivals.
We have not, however, gotten enough Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson, the matchup we’ll see Sunday during the AFC Championship Game.
These are the league's two most successful young quarterbacks. Mahomes is already a two-time MVP, and Jackson is weeks away from getting his second. Mahomes is 28 years old, while Jackson is still just 27.
These are two players who have shaped the way we view modern quarterbacks and what they could be.
But these two are not often connected in the same way we talk about Mahomes-Allen or Mahomes-Burrow because these Kansas City Chiefs–Baltimore Ravens matchups haven’t happened as often.
The Chiefs and Ravens last met in Week 2 of the 2021 season. But on Sunday, we’ll get a premier quarterback matchup that should (fingers crossed) be one of many more meetings of this caliber.
Mahomes' Adaptability Makes Him Difficult to Defend
Let’s get this out of the way: Quarterbacks don't face each other. They’re never on the field at the same time. When we talk about these quarterback matchups, it’s much more about us as the spectators than it is about the quarterbacks themselves.
But there is something to the idea of who's standing on the other sideline and what that quarterback might do if the offense on the field comes up short. We’ve seen this play out with Mahomes, especially in the playoffs.
It’s part of the reason Allen went for the touchdown coming out the the two-minute warning when everything about the Buffalo Bills’ plan up to that point was about controlling the ball and making the safe choice. The stakes were raised.
There's pressure on the opposing quarterback. Sure, but it’s the defensive coordinators who have the control. That’s what makes this matchup so intriguing: We have two quarterbacks who force opposing defenses to change the most and throw multiple kitchen sinks hoping that something works — especially in the playoffs.
That’s always been the case for Mahomes. We’ve already seen it this season. The Miami Dolphins blitzed Mahomes on 53.5 percent of his dropbacks in the wild-card game after blitzing just 19.3 percent of the time during the regular season, per TruMedia.
Miami upped its rate of base defense from 19.7 percent in the regular season to 41.3 percent against the Chiefs. Part of that plan was due to the Dolphins' injuries, but it was about trying anything to pressure Mahomes.
Then, Buffalo blitzed Mahomes on only four percent of his dropbacks in the divisional round. But that came after the Bills had a completely different tactic during their regular season meeting in Week 14.
In that game, Buffalo was a little more aggressive with the pass rush, blitzing 24.4 percent of the time. However, the Bills also invited the run (while the Chiefs were without Isiah Pacheco) by aligning with a light box on 82.3 percent of snaps. In the playoff meeting, Buffalo didn’t bring extra defenders, but it did keep them near the line, aligning with a light box just 38.3 percent of the time.
It’s about at least attempting to change the picture for Mahomes. That’s where the Cincinnati Bengals and the Drop-8 looks from defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo have come in. The Bengals have gone the opposite way of blitzing Mahomes.
Throughout Mahomes' career, he has shredded the blitz, and most opponents have stopped blitzing him altogether. He had the second-lowest blitz rate among quarterbacks this season after he ranked 27th in 2022.
When the Bengals played the Chiefs in the playoffs, the defense often dropped eight defenders in coverage and kept a spy in the middle of the field to limit the damage Mahomes could do with his legs.
Against those looks, Mahomes was pressured 38.1 percent of the time due to how long he’s forced to hold the ball, and 62.5 percent of those pressures turned into sacks. In normal scenarios, Mahomes has one of the lowest pressure-to-sack rates. Among all AFC opponents, Mahomes has his lowest EPA per play (0.04) against the Bengals.
What makes Mahomes special, despite these wild swings by opposing defenses, is his ability to win in any way that’s presented. He can play the patient game. He can be aggressive and beat pressure when it comes. There’s typically a counterpunch.
Jackson, Ravens Have Been More Consistent This Season
That counterpunch has been lacking from Jackson and the Ravens during the playoffs. Jackson’s previous playoff struggles are widely noted, and they’ve been framed as the quarterback’s inability to play on a big stage (or whatever). Still, they have stemmed from defensive reverence for Jackson, which forced defenses to make similar wild swings.
In Jackson’s first two playoff games against the Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans, the defensive tried to play light with more defensive backs. That put speedier players on the field to chase down Jackson in the run game instead of linebackers.
The Chargers played with seven defensive backs on 98.3 percent of their defensive snaps. They played with that many defensive backs on 5.1 percent of plays during the regular season. Against Baltimore, Los Angeles had a 94.7 percent defensive rushing success rate and held the Ravens to 3.9 yards per play.
Tennessee borrowed that plan the following season and used dime personnel on 45.7 percent of plays after using it 25 percent of the time in the regular season. Jackson threw an interception on the opening drive, then the Ravens failed on a fourth-and-1 conversion on the second drive and never got into a groove offensively.
Fast forward to Baltimore's divisional-round game against the Houston Texans. The Texans blitzed Jackson every chance they could — he was blitzed on 72.4 percent of his dropbacks.
Unlike Mahomes, Jackson can be caught with the blitz. He was the second-most blitzed quarterback in 2022 and the seventh-most in 2023. Against the blitz this season, Jackson was just 17th in EPA per play.
In the first half of the Texans game, this worked for Houston. Jackson held onto the ball longer and averaged -0.27 EPA per play with a 25 percent success rate, 4.6 yards per attempt and 3.36 seconds to throw against the blitz. Those blitzes created pressure on 58.3 percent of dropbacks, and 42.9 percent of those pressures resulted in sacks.
For previous versions of the Ravens, that might have been it. But this year's version made a switch at the half. Against the blitz in the second half, Jackson got the ball out quicker (2.02 seconds) and averaged 0.72 EPA per play with a 77.8 percent success rate and 9.8 yards per attempt. With the ball getting out so quickly, just 11.1 percent of those blitzes created pressure — and there were no sacks taken.
The adaptability is something we’ve seen in flashes from Baltimore, but having more answers is a quality that has helped lift the offense in 2023.
In the last meeting between Kansas City and Baltimore, the Chiefs tried to bring pressure against Jackson. They blitzed him 44.4 percent of the time, which was the third-highest rate for the defense in a game that season. The Ravens' answer was to run through it.
Jackson finished the game with 107 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt through the air. It was Kansas City's defense's worst success rate that season.
The Ravens' offense is better now. The Chiefs' defense is better now.
The Ravens' defense is better now. The Chiefs' offense… can still make things happen because of Mahomes.
We haven't gotten this specific matchup enough, but with how these two teams are trending, Sunday’s meeting won't be the last.
