NFL Analysis
7/23/24
6 min read
Is Saquon Barkley What Pushes Eagles Back To Super Bowl?
Saquon Barkley is a Philadelphia Eagle.
Barkley's departure from the New York Giants is a focus of the current season of Hard Knocks. In one episode, Giants owner John Mara said he'd have a tough time sleeping if Barkley went to the Philadelphia Eagles. And, well, Mara might have had some sleepless nights this offseason.
#Giants owner John Mara on Saquon Barkley potentially getting interest from the Eagles and Bears:
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) July 17, 2024
"I'll have a tough time sleeping if Saquon goes to Philadelphia, I'll tell you that. ... He's the most popular player we have BY FAR."pic.twitter.com/T0SJDIyHZH
When Barkley signed with Philadelphia, there was a sense he could be the type of offense-changing addition that put the Eagles over the top, similar to Christian McCaffrey's impact on the San Francisco 49ers.
That's a lofty — and potentially unfair — bar to set for Barkley's influence on his new offense. But that raises the question of what we should expect from Barkley and the Eagles this season.
Running Long
Barkley's running style has always been a bit boom-or-bust. He's been a low success rate runner who has broken off big plays when healthy. That type of running style became particularly dangerous and often ineffective behind a Giants offensive line that struggled to block well.
In 2023, the Giants ranked 31st in ESPN's run block win rate, and Barkley averaged just 0.98 yards before contact per rush. That ranked 36th on 49 running backs with at least 100 carries last season.
Among backs who averaged under a yard before contact per rush, Barkley had the highest rate of runs that went for more than 10 yards, per TruMedia.
However, Barkley was stuffed at or behind the line on 25.1 percent of his rushing attempts, above only two other backs.
That, theoretically, won't be an issue behind the Eagles' offensive line. Even if it's not the best in the league amid changes, it's still a significant upgrade over what he was running behind with the Giants. It might not be a bad bet to take on a boom-bust style runner and put him in a position where the bust won't be an issue.
The Eagles hope that explosive ability will be a boost over what they had at running back last season. Despite leading the league in yards before contact per rush on running back carries, Philadelphia only ranked sixth in overall yards per carry and 15th in the rate of runs that gained 10 or more yards.
While Barkley only averaged 3.9 yards per carry last season, he was only expected to average 3.5, according to Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, Eagles RB D'Andre Swift averaged 4.5 yards per carry while he was expected to average 4.89. Some meat was left on the bone in the Eagles' running game. Only 9.6 percent of Swift's runs gained more than 10 yards, a lower rate than Barkley.
Philadelphia's offensive line might not be Barkley's only benefit in his new situation. Barkley's best season by yards before contact per rush came in 2022 when Daniel Jones had his best season as a runner. Barkley will now get the gravity of Jalen Hurts, who can be a more significant threat on the ground.
But will just having some big runs be enough to really change the offense? While the Eagles could have gotten more from the running game, it's not as if it was a net negative for the offense.
What a catch by Saquon Barkley! pic.twitter.com/66ohKZho7O
— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) December 17, 2023
Will the receiving work come?
If Barkley transforms this offense, it must involve work in the passing game. But that is where the most significant questions arise.
Hurts has not historically thrown to running backs. Since Hurts became the starter in 2021, just 16.3 percent of his pass attempts have targeted backs, which ranks 29th among 38 qualified quarterbacks. In the past two seasons, Brock Purdy has targeted backs on a league-high 23.8 percent of passes.
This is partly because Hurts has used his legs to scramble as a check-down option rather than dumping the ball to a back. Even as Hurts' scramble rate has dropped in the past three seasons, his running back target rate has also dropped.
It might be tough to get Barkley work as a top target when he's competing against A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert in the offense. All three players are better than anyone Barkley has played with while part of the Giants.
For Barkley to be a more impactful receiver, it will have to happen within the structure of the offense. While we've seen Barkley use his athleticism to create big plays in the passing game, he hasn't been the type of receiver who completely changes the structure of the offense. During the past three seasons, Barkley has only had 23 targets and 16 receptions for 93 yards from the slot. Last year alone, McCaffrey had 21 targets and 16 receptions for 147 yards and two touchdowns from the slot.
What makes McCaffrey so instrumental to the 49ers' offense is the versatility his presence created. Any of the five eligible San Francisco receivers can line up anywhere in the formation on a given play. Barkley was touted with that potential, but that movement has yet to fully form in the NFL.
The Giants always toyed with throwing Barkley in the slot and mixing up formations in training camps throughout Barkley's career. Still, those never had a lasting impact during the regular season.
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has been creative with getting the ball to backs, especially with Tony Pollard in Dallas. However, Pollard was mostly the No. 2 back, and some of those plays came with Ezekiel Elliott on the field as the actual running threat in the backfield.
The Eagles could have some opportunities to work Barkley and another back on the field simultaneously since they don't currently have a No. 3 receiver who demands playing time. Philadelphia's depth chart includes Parris Campbell, fifth-round rookie Anias Smith, and sixth-round rookie Johnny Wilson behind Brown and Smith.
Still, Barkley taking some of the workload for a third receiver isn't exactly setting expectations ablaze.
There's room for some creativity, and this could be where the Eagles get more out of the type of player Barkley can be. This might be the thing to watch most for the Eagles in training camp. Still, anyone envisioning Barkley turning into Philadelphia's version of McCaffrey is projecting a type of player we still haven't ultimately seen.
The Eagles might not need that type of impact for Barkley to be a significant improvement over the backs they had last season, but there will be hope and potential for more.
