Expert Analysis
12/17/24
7 min read
Is Tua Tagovailoa The Miami Dolphins' Long-Term Answer At Quarterback?
Tua Tagovailoa has had a strong career with the Miami Dolphins, but his long-term outlook suggests that the franchise should consider other quarterback options in the not-so-distant future if it wants to seriously compete for a Super Bowl.
The Dolphins lost a disappointing 20-12 game against the Houston Texans on Sunday, moving them to 6-8 with just an 8 percent chance of making the playoffs. Tagovailoa completed 29 of 40 passes for 196 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions, one of the worst games of his career.
Those turnovers prevented the Dolphins from mounting any kind of comeback. It's not like Tagovailoa has had a bad season when healthy, but the 26-year-old quarterback has had some rough moments in big games, even with his career resurgence under head coach Mike McDaniel.
It would be irresponsible for the Dolphins to cut bait from Tagovailoa this offseason. However, the organization should start thinking about long-term quarterback options if their current franchise quarterback can't get them over the hump.
Still, moving on from a player like Tagovailoa would require a serious star at the position. For all of his faults, Tagovailoa still has the skill set and talent to run McDaniel's offense effectively to keep them in playoff contention when healthy.
However, the ceiling for this Dolphins team seems to be limited with Tua, which makes the long-term situation at quarterback so difficult.
Warning Signs
The traditional box score numbers suggest that Tagovailoa is still one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. However, a deeper dive suggests that some bigger concerns are keeping him from being a truly elite quarterback.
Tagovailoa is completing a career-high 73.7 percent of his passes for 2,652 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He is on pace for his third straight season with a passer rating of more than 100.0.
However, those stats are inflated due to Miami's electric playmakers and an offensive scheme that has Tua getting the ball out as fast as possible. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, he has the lowest average throw time in the league at just 2.25 seconds. Only one other current starter has an average throw time below 2.47 seconds, and that's Cooper Rush at 2.30.
Coinciding with the quick passing game is Tagovailoa leading the NFL with the lowest average depth of target at 6.0 yards. When he's had to pass deep, he hasn't been nearly as efficient. Per PFF, on throws 10 or more yards downfield, Tagovailoa has completed 56-of-103 passes for 1,105 yards, six touchdowns, and six interceptions with a passer rating of just 87.24.
This visual from TruMedia shows just how much of Tua's production comes on underneath passes. The size of the box indicates frequency, while the color of the box indicates accuracy.
The screen game also boosts a large chunk of Tua's production. Per PFF, Tua has completed 71-of-76 screen passes just this season for 465 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. It's a credit to McDaniel and his coaching staff for drawing up all of these creative screens, but their numbers drastically inflate Tagovailoa's production.
The Dolphins major in Running Back Texas Screen pic.twitter.com/euYULdEI3A
— Firstdown_XO’s (@FirstdownX__Os) December 9, 2024
As efficient as Tagovailoa is, his concerns start to show when he's forced to be a more traditional passer, from struggling to avoid sacks (22.1 percent pressure-to-sack ratio) to performing in cold games (0-5 with a 77.4 passer rating in games played under 40 degrees).
There's also the long-term concern with Tua's health. He suffered another concussion this season that led to questions about whether or not he should retire, causing him to be placed on injured reserve and missing four games.
Despite the history of concussions, Tua still isn't protecting himself. He continues to dive headfirst on scramble attempts and consistently puts himself at risk when running downfield.
All of this suggests that Tagovailoa is a fit for the scheme but might not be the guy who can carry the Dolphins into a deep playoff run. If the Dolphins are on the same page with their internal evaluation, the question is: what can they do long-term?
Tua's Contract
Even if the Dolphins wanted to cut bait this offseason, which would be unrealistic and unwise, it wouldn't be easy.
The Dolphins rewarded their former first-round quarterback with a four-year, $212.5 million extension this offseason. That extension made him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in NFL history but also put the Dolphins in a position to move away from the contract if things go south.
However, that potential out wouldn't be happening in 2025. According to Spotrac, the Dolphins would take on an $83 million dead cap hit if they moved on from Tagovailoa this offseason. Things get a bit easier in 2026, with a net cap savings of about $11 million despite a $45.2 million dead cap hit.
The more likely scenarios are in 2027 and beyond, but all of this depends on how Tagovailoa performs in the coming years and whether or not they can stay healthy.
Either way, finding another starting-caliber quarterback might be important.
Quarterback Options
Regardless of which option the Dolphins take with Tua this offseason, it would be smart to find another quarterback on the roster.
Skylar Thompson, Tyler Huntley, and Tim Boyle have had to play in Tua's absence, and none of those quarterbacks have done much of anything. The three quarterbacks combined for 125 pass attempts but only threw one touchdown and one interception, with all of them averaging 5.9 yards per pass attempt or lower.
The best option for the Dolphins this offseason would be to take a swing on a Day 2 quarterback prospect. It would give Miami the best of both worlds, giving them a backup to Tua in case of injury while also potentially getting a long-term successor if they hit on the right prospect.
Potential Day 2 prospects include Indiana's Kurtis Rourke and Texas Longhorns gunslinger Quinn Ewers. However, Oregon's Dillon Gabriel would be the best fit for McDaniels's scheme, as difficult as that would be for any quarterback at any level.
While he doesn't have the physical tools of many other quarterback prospects, Gabriel is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in college football history. He's also a left-handed quarterback with poise, mobility, a quick release, and a feel for handling an up-tempo offense.
There are several reasons Oregon is the favorite to win it all, but No. 1 on that list (IMO) is the Dillon Gabriel to Tez Johnson connection.
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) December 9, 2024
Two guys who will be dinged as NFL prospects due to size, but both just keep making plays. Ballers. pic.twitter.com/vYaNZIMo6Y
All of that makes Gabriel an ideal fit for Miami, or at least as close to a fit as anyone can be for McDaniel's system not named Tua. Even if he doesn't turn out to be a starting-caliber quarterback at the NFL level, his play style and college playing experience would make him a great backup.
The other option would be a free agent quarterback, but the more realistic timeline would be 2026, when the Dolphins would start to consider getting out of Tua's contract.
That class could include a pair of intriguing free agents, Geno Smith and Brock Purdy, depending on how their contract situations play out with their respective teams.
There's no denying that Tagovailoa is a good quarterback. He seems to be such a unique quarterback that he might be the only one capable of running McDaniel's offensive scheme.
However, the Dolphins' ceiling seems to be capped, and it's shown in ugly ways in cold-weather games, particularly last year in the playoffs.
It's a difficult situation to be in, but it is important for the organization to weigh its options and plan out what long-term plans could look like with a different player under center to improve their chances at being a Super Bowl contender.
