Analysis

8/7/23

6 min read

Jacksonville Jaguars 2023 Fantasy Football Team Preview

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As we inch closer to opening day of the NFL season, we want to get you prepared for your fantasy football drafts. That process begins with our team previews, where we’ll break down each team’s offense while providing players we’re targeting and, in some cases, avoiding.

Jaguars Fantasy Football Team Preview

Head Coach: Doug Pederson (second season)

Offensive Coordinator: Press Taylor (second season)

Key Offensive Additions

Key Offensive Departures

Key Offensive Rookies

Points Per Game: 23.8 (10th)

Passing Yards: 232.9 (10th)

Rushing Yards: 124.5 (14th)

Vacated Targets: 124 (eighth)

Pass: 63 percent Run: 37 percent

Pace: 11th

OL Rank: 23rd

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence silenced his detractors in his sophomore year, finishing ninth in the league in yards passing (4,113) and eighth in passing touchdowns (25). Perhaps more importantly, Lawrence played his best football as a pro down the stretch, throwing for more than 300 yards with at least three touchdowns in three different games. In addition to his growth as a passer, Lawrence also brings some rushing upside, finishing 10th among quarterbacks with 291 yards on the ground.

Lawrence finished 2022 with 18 fantasy points per game, tied for 11th among qualifying quarterbacks. However, he was seventh with 19.3 from Week 9 on. Lawrence has MVP-caliber upside with an improved wide receiver group entering this season. As things stand now, Lawrence is the last “safe” premium quarterback available in drafts.

Running Backs

Travis Etienne was given the reins to the Jaguars’ backfield starting in Week 7 when the team traded James Robinson to the Jets. He averaged 15 carries and 2.5 targets per game from that point onward, which includes a Week 12 game where he left due to injury after five snaps, as well as a Week 17 blowout (31-3 over the Texans) where he carried nine times for 108 yards.

Etienne didn’t provide many high-end fantasy performances despite his large workload, but this can be explained away by his lack of scoring. Etienne had just five total touchdowns on 255 touches. He was trusted with 80 percent of the team’s running back red zone opportunities from Week 7 onward, so the touchdowns should be there in 2023.

A decorated receiving back in college (more than 1,000 yards receiving over his final two seasons at Clemson), Etienne wasn’t asked to do much in that area last year; however, there’s a chance we see a receiving spike in 2023 since his Clemson quarterback also happened to be Lawrence. He should be a workhorse for one of the NFL’s higher-functioning offenses and is a low-end RB1 type for fantasy football.

Behind him is rookie third-round pick Tank Bigsby. Bigsby will most likely function as the breather back, and he’s a high-upside handcuff stash. He’s not the explosive athlete Etienne is, but he’s competent enough everywhere to step into a three-down role if needed. Bigsby is a similar size to Etienne, so there’s some chance he splits goal-line work, which could make him flex viable in a pinch, even if Etienne were healthy.

JaMycal Hasty and D’Ernest Johnson have flashed when given opportunities in the NFL, and there’s a slight chance one of them is ahead of Bigsby on the opening-day depth chart. Still, these two should remain on waivers unless one of them clearly emerges as Etienne’s direct backup.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Calvin Ridley could be a game-changer for Jacksonville's passing offense, with 53.6 percent of his career touchdowns coming on deep routes like post, corner and vertical patterns. That aligns perfectly with Lawrence's college production, where 60 percent of his total passing touchdowns also came from such routes. Coupled with Jacksonville’s top-ranking usage of double-move routes, Ridley's deadly skills in executing those routes make him the missing deep threat for this team.

Further, Ridley’s encouraging explosive performances during camp only reinforce his abilities in these areas and have added to the excitement behind his return to action.

Christian Kirk had his best season as a pro in 2022, but Jordan Vanek doesn’t expect an improvement in his production. Kirk will still provide a safe floor because he’s earned the trust of Lawrence and his role will still be centered around the short to intermediate portions of the field as it was last year. Kirk is being drafted as a mid-tier WR3 and, at that range, he’s a value in PPR leagues.

Zay Jones will be the third wide receiver in this group, and his role will be to make plays in 1-on-1 situations against the third corner. Jones will not see 100 targets like last year but is a viable late-round pick.

Evan Engram was able to get a contract extension and remain with the Jaguars. Engram posted his highest catch rate as a pro, and Pederson will design plays to get him the ball. He’s one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the NFL, but his volume won’t be high enough for him to be a top-tier tight end.

Dynasty Buy

Ian Miller: Buy Ridley (WR29)

The last eligible season we saw from Ridley, he became just the 13th third-year wide receiver to post at least 18 points per game. He’s still just 28 years old and joining a higher-volume passing offense led by Lawrence. You’re paying WR29 prices for someone who has a realistic shot at finishing top five at the position.  

Jaguars We’re Targeting or Avoiding in Fantasy Football

Josh Larky: Target Etienne.

Ryan Reynolds: Target Ridley.

Jordan Vanek: Target Ridley, Kirk.

Other Fantasy Previews

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS

NFC North: CHI | DET | GB | MIN

NFC South: NO | ATL | CAR | TB

NFC West: SF | LAR | SEA | ARI

AFC East: BUF | MIA | NE | NYJ

AFC North: BAL| CLE | CIN | PIT

AFC South: HOU  | TEN | IND

AFC West: KC | LAC | LV | DEN

Follow our Team on Twitter

Josh Larky: @JLarkyTweets

Ryan Reynolds: @RyanReynoldsNFL

Jordan Vanek: @JordanVanekDFS

Ian Miller: @Dynasty_IM

Our data is provided by Sports Info Solutions, and our vacated targets figure is provided by Tru Media. 

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Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

Jordan Vanek

Jordan has been playing DFS since 2016 and started writing content at the end of 2020. While playing DFS, he has managed multiple top 10 finishes in NFL, college football, baseball, basketball and NASCAR.

Ian Miller

Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.

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