NFL Analysis
10/10/24
5 min read
Jaguars' Tank Bigsby Looks Like NFL's Next Breakout Running Back
Jacksonville Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby could have been an afterthought, but a strong start to 2024 has revitalized his NFL career.
Bigsby had the first 100-yard game of his career in the 37-34 win against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. He carried the ball 13 times for 101 yards and two touchdowns while adding a 28-yard reception.
While he's not even Jacksonville's starting back, Bigsby is having a breakout season as one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. That seems almost impossible considering how his NFL career started.
A Disappointing Start
Bigsby had NFL aspirations dating back to high school. A former 4-star recruit and top-100 high school player in the country, his offers included virtually every top SEC school, along with programs like Michigan, USC, Ohio State, and Notre Dame.
Instead, Bigsby decided to enroll at Auburn, where he had an immediate impact as the SEC Freshman of the Year in 2020. He left the Tigers with over 2,900 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns in three seasons.
The Jaguars picked Bigsby up in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, but he struggled to find a consistent role as a rookie, even after a decent start that included two touchdowns in his first three games.
Bigsby finished his rookie year with just 2.6 yards per carry, which was the fewest of any running back in the NFL with at least 50 rushing attempts in 2023. Only four other running backs across the league averaged fewer than 3.0 yards per rushing attempt.
The Jaguars looked like a team ready to move on from their RB2 in 2024, drafting Keilan Robinson in the fifth round of this year's draft. Instead of backing down, Bigsby faced the competition and has come out looking like the best change-of-pace back in the league.
Peak Efficiency
There isn't another running back in the NFL playing like Bigsby right now.
The traditional box score stats suggest that Bigsby is playing well. He's run for 273 yards and two touchdowns while averaging an impressive 8.0 yards per carry. However, the advanced metrics show that Bigsby is making the most of his opportunities and doing a better job with his carries than any other running back.
Bigsby leads the league with 6.47 yards after contact per rushing attempt. Antonio Gibson is the next-closest running back with just 4.54 YAC per carry. The Jaguars running back also has the highest breakaway rate at 76.1 percent, while Kenneth Walker III is the next closest at 54.5 percent.
Bigsby is also second in breakaway yards (207), fifth in missed tackles forced (18), and 12th in total yards after contact (220).
To put Bigsby's efficiency into perspective, here's the list of every player with at least 20 rushing attempts in 2024, along with their offensive expected points added per play, and yards after contact per rushing attempt.
Bigsby's two touchdown runs from Sunday's win against the Colts perfectly encapsulate his skill set. His first run shows his vision as a downhill runner, along with his play strength and willingness to keep his feet moving through contact to keep breaking tackles on his way into the end zone.
Downhill explosiveness and keeping your feet moving through contact.
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) October 10, 2024
Old school football. pic.twitter.com/nrhfONl4Cm
On the second score, Bigsby showed a different side of him. With a misdirection toss, watch how the Jaguars running back shows off some lethal one-cut ability, then uses his explosiveness and top-end play speed to take off for a 65-yard touchdown.
One-cut ability, explosiveness, breakaway speed. pic.twitter.com/k2Ywy6Z9OV
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) October 10, 2024
Normally, a running back is either a power or a speed player. However, Bigsby has both. He's a fearless downhill runner, but also knows how to make a defender whiff in open space.
There's a reason Bigsby has the league's highest breakaway rate. That number is bound to regress with a higher workload, but it's also a sign that the Jaguars running back can turn any run into a house call.
Is an Increased Workload Coming?
The Jaguars would be foolish not to give Bigsby an additional workload, considering how efficient he's been.
It's not like Travis Etienne is having a bad start to the year, either. He's averaging 4.4 yards per carry with 231 yards and two touchdowns, along with 16 receptions for 91 yards. However, Bigsby's emergence as the RB2 means that the former third-round pick could start eating into Etienne's snap count.
Head coach Doug Pederson praised Bigsby for a great performance on Sunday but made it clear that Etienne is the starting running back going forward.
"[Bigsby] played well, and it's good to see from him because as the season goes, you're going to need two, maybe all three of those guys," Pederson told reporters. "Travis is our guy. Tank had a good game. That's just the way games go. Happy for Tank. Great for the offensive line, obviously, in some of those situations there. Travis is our guy. Tank had a good game today, though.”
Even if Pederson keeps reiterating that Etienne is the starter, that doesn't mean that Bigsby won't keep seeing more touches. Of his 34 carries, 20 have come in the last two games, and that trend should continue as long as Bigsby continues to generate explosive plays like he has been doing.
