NFL Analysis
1/19/25
6 min read
Jayden Daniels' Epic Upset of Top-Seeded Lions Vaults Him Into Top-5 QB Territory
Jayden Daniels isn't only the best rookie quarterback in the NFL, but he's firmly established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
The Washington Commanders came up with one of the biggest upset wins in recent playoff memory, taking down the seemingly unflappable Detroit Lions in a 45-31 victory. Daniels looked like anything but a rookie, completing 22-of-31 passes for 299 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions for a 122.9 passer rating.
Daniels came into the league with some criticism about how his game would translate to the NFL level. However, the former LSU Heisman Trophy winner has leaned into his strengths instead of trying to be a different type of player, and the results have the Commanders a game away from their first trip to the Super Bowl since 1991.
It's still early in his career, but Daniels's trajectory is unlike anything the league has seen before.
A red-Hot Regular season
This year's quarterback class rewrote the rookie record book, but Daniels stood out with ruthless efficiency and dual-threat ability throughout the 2024 season.
Daniels set multiple all-time rookie records, including completion percentage. He completed 69 percent of his passes and consistently avoided turnovers, throwing for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just nine interceptions.
The No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft also set the all-time rushing record for a rookie quarterback, rushing for 891 yards and six scores, averaging 6.0 yards per carry. He broke the record by a wide margin, beating fellow Washington QB Robert Griffin III's rookie mark of 815 yards.
For as impressive as those numbers were, the league wasn't ready for just how much better Daniels would look in the playoffs.
Heating Up
Rookie quarterbacks can shrink once the playoffs come around, but Daniels has risen to the challenge in the postseason.
Brock Purdy is the only other rookie quarterback to win multiple playoff games since Mark Sanchez last did so in 2009. Purdy, of course, led the San Francisco 49ers to the NFC Championship before an elbow injury ended a dream run for the former Mr. Irrelevant.
While Purdy was lifted by an elite unit around him, Daniels has done the lifting for the Commanders. In two playoff games, he's completed 46-of-66 passes for 567 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions for a 116.16 passer rating.
For reference, Baker Mayfield held the all-time playoff record for passer rating at 105.9.
As someone who was labeled by some critics as a quarterback who was too eager to use his athleticism instead of operating as a traditional passer, Daniels has shattered any of those notions as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history.
According to RBSDM, he has generated an absurd 34.4 total EPA in his two playoff games, including a dominant 20.5 total EPA and 0.45 EPA per play on Saturday.
Daniels' performance against the Lions was one of the most impressive of the year from the former Heisman Trophy winner. While Detroit's defense was plagued by injuries, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn continued to be ruthless in trying to pressure the young quarterback to force him into bad decisions.
According to Pro Football Focus, Daniels was blitzed on more than half of the time, facing extra rushers on 19-of-36 dropbacks. He wasn't even remotely phased against the blitz, completing 12-of-16 passes for 200 yards, a touchdown, and a 137.5 passer rating.
One of Daniels' best throws of the game came against the blitz on fourth down in the second half. Facing a free rusher through the A-gap, Daniels was able to deliver an accurate ball with a defender in his face to keep the chains moving and suck the life out of the Detroit crowd.
The deep ball was working for Daniels as well. The Commanders quarterback completed both of his passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, including this incredible deep shot to Dyami Brown.
This THROW by Jayden Daniels 🤯
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) January 19, 2025
It’s officially not crazy to say that Jayden Daniels is the best rookie QB of the past 10 years.
Yes, even over CJ Stroud. pic.twitter.com/gWxIq6W1Xe
Even when there wasn't anything available in the passing game, Daniels made plays with his legs. He carried the ball 15 times for 52 yards, generating four first downs.
The relationship between Daniels and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has completely turned around the Commanders franchise. The combination of the screen game and deep downfield shots keeps defenses guessing, forcing them to pick their poison when it comes to how they want the young quarterback to beat them.
That's rare to see from a rookie.
Where Does Daniels Stack Up?
It's still early in his career, but as of right now, Daniels is making an awfully strong argument to belong in the conversation as a top-five quarterback in the league.
The NFL's top tier of quarterbacks looks pretty established at this point. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow have all asserted themselves as elite players at the position who are capable of carrying their teams, even when the rest of the team is struggling.
Daniels isn't going to break into that group without consistent production unless he continues to play like he has on the way to a Super Bowl victory. Realistically, he's already landed in the next tier of quarterbacks.
That second tier of quarterbacks is harder to define. Players like Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy, and Matthew Stafford probably belong in it. The NFC North's quarterbacks, Jared Goff, Jordan Love, and Sam Darnold, all showed signs of being elite but faded away as their seasons ended.
This is probably where Daniels belongs, and he might even have an argument over all of these players. According to NFELO, the rookie finished in the top 15 out of 63 quarterbacks in TD/INT ratio, QBR, and EPA per dropback.
However, those numbers don't do a good enough job of measuring Daniels' efficiency as a dual-threat quarterback. His play style is the closest the league has seen to Lamar Jackson, but even the two-time MVP wasn't this efficient as a rookie for the Baltimore Ravens.
The stats are tricky, but Daniels' level of play in the playoffs should have him firmly in the second tier of quarterbacks, with the trajectory to be a top-five quarterback in the league in the coming years.
