NFL Analysis
12/26/23
6 min read
Joe Flacco Won't Carry Browns But Makes Cleveland Tough Playoff Out
The Cleveland Browns have been the league’s best defense for the entirety of the NFL regular season. Opposing offenses are averaging less than 20 yards per drive (19.9) against them, per TruMedia — even the New York Jets’ offense averages more than 20 yards per drive (20.8).
For much of the season, that was in danger of going to waste because the team could not sustain any offense.
Deshaun Watson was bad. Nick Chubb got hurt. Backups PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson traded ineffective starts. Through Week 12, the Browns were 7-4 but ranked 28th in EPA per play on offense. Then, Joe Flacco got a call.
Flacco's Renaissance
Cleveland is 3-1 in Flacco’s four starts with three straight wins, including a 36-22 victory against the Houston Texans in Week 16. The Browns, now 10-5, have more than a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The Upshot.
In Flacco’s first three starts, he was fine — give or take a bit. From Weeks 12-15, he was 27th among quarterbacks in EPA per play but 13th in success rate. That success rate allowed the offense to get by, while some flashes showed more baseline competency at quarterback than the Browns had with their previous passers. It was enough to win games.
Week 16 is the first time Flacco could be considered the driver of the win. He threw for 368 yards, 265 of them to Amari Cooper for a Browns franchise receiving record. Even with two interceptions, Flacco had a QBR of 87.2, meaning a team would expect to win 87.2 percent of the time with a performance like Flacco’s.
It was easily the best game for a Browns quarterback this season, which is something that could be said of Flacco’s whole starting stint.
Cleveland has five games with more than five yards per play on offense this season. Three of them have come in the past three weeks with Flacco.
Operating From Shotgun
During Flacco’s first few starts, the Browns tried to go back to their roots under Kevin Stefanski. The Browns went under center with Flacco more than they had with the other three quarterbacks and used hard play-action to set up the passing game.
Against Houston, the Browns still went heavy with the play-action (34 percent) but kept Flacco in the shotgun 75 percent of the time.
That helped unleash a downfield passing game that has been more efficient and at a higher volume under Flacco. In four games, he already has the most attempts of 20 or more air yards for a Cleveland quarterback this season.
The Browns have an explosive pass rate of 14.3 percent with Flacco, per TruMedia. That would rank 13th for an entire season, but it was just 10.5 percent before he took over.
The Browns have 20 pass plays of 20 or more yards in the past four games. They had 24 during the first 12 weeks of the season. Flacco has four completions of at least 50 yards, double the number before he took over.
One of the keys to success is throwing outside the numbers. Flacco is willing to throw more outside and is more aggressive in pushing the ball down the field. That’s gone into the play calling, too, where fewer passes are thrown behind the line of scrimmage with Flacco at quarterback, and the Browns have set things up to develop downfield.
Most of Cooper’s record-setting day came on throws outside the numbers. Take a look at his target chart. It’s clear where the Browns wanted to work.
That focus on throws outside the numbers allowed Cooper to play more outside. He’s gotten more production even while he’s only run a route on 78 percent of the team’s pass plays when Flacco is at quarterback.
Having a legitimate explosive play threat, especially on the outside, has shifted how defenses have played the Browns.
Defenses were playing with more single-high looks to have an extra man in the box to defend against the run. Through Week 12, 56.5 percent of Cleveland dropbacks saw single-high coverage. Since Flacco took over, that rate is down to 41.2 percent.
With more two-high played against them, the Browns have taken advantage of the middle of the field being open on passing plays. That was apparent on Cleveland’s first play against Houston — a 53-yard pass to Cooper.
Post routes weren’t a part of the Cleveland offense before Flacco came in — only one percent of Browns' pass attempts targeted a post route through Week 12. Flacco has targeted posts on 5.7 percent of his passes, the fifth-highest rate among all quarterbacks.
That’s also the case for crossers, a route Flacco has thrown on nearly 10 percent of his attempts, per TruMedia. That was just 5.6 percent through Week 12.
Running Game Lags Behind
Even with more two-high structures, the Browns haven’t figured out the run game behind an offensive line in flux. Flacco already has at least 40 dropbacks behind four different offensive line combinations, with no more than 50 behind any of them.
Since Flacco took over, the Browns have gained 10 or more yards on just four percent of attempts while they have been stuffed a league-high 29.8 percent. That puts a more significant emphasis on the passing game.
Flacco has never been a good mover, but he’s avoided sacks and got the ball away. Only 11.9 percent of pressures have turned into sacks, which ranks fourth among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season.
That’s even more impressive given some of the offensive line turnover in the short time he’s been the starter.
Playoff Outlook
The biggest positive difference for the Browns and how this could turn for the playoffs is the offense doesn’t have to rely on the defense to score. In the season’s first 12 weeks, the Browns averaged 3.13 points per drive on drives that started after an interception, punt or turnover on downs.
On drives that started after a kickoff or punt, Cleveland scored a touchdown on only 11.8 percent of the time (28th). Since Week 13, that rate has been 21.7 percent, which is 13th.
With their dominant defense, having an offense that doesn’t actively make the job harder would be a positive. That would have made making the playoffs a difficult task on its own. Now, the playoffs are likely, and the Browns could have just enough upside to be dangerous.
Cleveland’s offense won’t carry it a playoff game, but it could get just hot enough to make some big plays.
Flacco’s last playoff start was during the 2014 season. No one would have imagined him quarterbacking a potential playoff threat in 2023. He won’t be the most important player on the field, but his presence behind center gives the Browns the closest thing to an offensive threat they’ve had this season.
That might not be a great sign for the Browns’ future, given their commitments at the position, but it makes them one of the most interesting teams for this final stretch of 2023.
