NFL Analysis
12/16/24
7 min read
Jordan Love Is Playing Like the NFC's Best Quarterback, and the Packers Are Thriving
The Green Bay Packers doubled down on Jordan Love this offseason with a $220 million contract extension. The last few weeks have shown that the Packers knew what they had in their former first-round pick, who is playing like the best quarterback in the NFC.
Love was efficient and dominant in Green Bay's 30-13 win against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. He completed 20-of-27 passes for 229 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions.
After knee and groin injuries earlier this season, Love has looked fully healthy since the team's bye week, and he has the Packers offense firing on all cylinders. Toyotathon jokes aside, Love is playing elite football for one of the NFL's hottest teams and is starting to assert himself as the best quarterback in his conference.
white-Hot Love
The Packers are 4-1 since their bye week, and Love is one of the biggest reasons for the team's recent success.
Sunday's dominant win was another example of Love's play style operating at its peak. He was completing the vast majority of his underneath throws to set up the deep shots, leading to big completions and pass interference penalties to march down the field.
Love's willingness to attack the field vertically has made him a tremendously effective quarterback in recent weeks. According to RBSDM, he generated 15.2 total EPA with 0.51 EPA per play in Sunday's win, in large part thanks to deep shots like his second touchdown to Romeo Doubs.
ROMEO DOUBS ARE YOU KIDDING ME? pic.twitter.com/0nBfmQbNog
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) December 16, 2024
That deep ball has been Love's best weapon all year. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, his passer rating of 108.3 on passes 20-plus yards downfield is higher than his passer rating at any other level of the field.
A lot of Love's overall numbers look decent but are criticized by some fans because of his 11 interceptions and shaky play earlier this season. Love even led the NFL multiple times in interceptions, but his streak of four games without throwing an interception has him four behind Kirk Cousins for the league's most.
This five-game stretch for Love has him playing like a top-tier quarterback. Since the bye week, he's completed 68.7 percent of his passes for 9.85 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns, one interception, and a 119.95 passer rating. According to TruMedia, he leads the NFL during the last five weeks with 10.36 adjusted net yards per pass attempt and third in the league with 0.32 EPA per dropback.
The only player close to Love in both categories? MVP favorite Josh Allen.
Love caught fire in a similar fashion last season, but the numbers he's posting this season are even stronger. From Week 11 through Week 15 last season, Love was posting 0.21 EPA per dropback with 7.46 ANY/A. Both were top-five marks in the league but don't come close to the numbers that he's putting up during this post-bye stretch.
It might have taken some time for Love to get settled in after his early-season injuries, but now the Packers QB is playing at an elite level.
A Dominant Supporting Cast
For as well as Love is playing, it's not possible without a dominant offensive supporting cast.
Green Bay's running game deserves a lot of credit for Love's success. Head coach Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich have designed a diverse and unique run game that has allowed Josh Jacobs to be one of the best running backs in football. This season, Jacobs has rushed for 1,147 yards and 12 touchdowns.
The offensive line has dominated in the trenches, moving bodies and resetting the line of scrimmage for Green Bay's running backs to pick up yards and first downs with regularity.
josh jacobs is back to the guy that led the league in rushing two years ago. he’s been fantastic, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise pic.twitter.com/95BS0785cA
— Zachary Jacobson (@zacobson) October 14, 2024
That consistent running game all season has helped Love thrive under center and with play-action. Per PFF, he's posted a 109.4 passer rating on play-action passes this season with 860 yards, six touchdowns, and just one interception.
Love's numbers are even better when throwing from under center, regardless of play-action, because of that constant threat of Green Bay's run game. Per TruMedia, he's completed 34-of-51 passes from under center for 532 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception for a 119.1 passer rating.
Then, there are Green Bay's receivers. Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and even Dontayvion Wicks have played key roles in the offense at times throughout the season. Doubs played the biggest role this Sunday with a pair of touchdown catches, but any one of Green Bay's receivers can go off on a single night, making it that much more difficult to gameplan against.
Even second-year tight end Tucker Kraft is having a massive impact on the offense. On top of being a borderline elite blocking tight end, Kraft has become a legitimate weapon in the passing game. According to Next Gen Stats, he's tied for the league lead with 4.5 yards of average separation per target, while his 9.3 yards after the catch per reception are second in the league behind only rookie wideout Keon Coleman.
Tucker Kraft rumbling after tapping the stiff arm button twice is killing me pic.twitter.com/LgESFL8Oup
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 10, 2024
The Packers might have the most well-rounded offense in the NFL right now, with a quarterback playing at an elite level, a dominant offensive line and running game, and exciting young weapons for Love to throw to. They have the third-ranked offense by DVOA for a reason this year, and Love is dominating while running the show.
Can the Packers Make a Run?
With how everything else in the NFC is playing out, this red-hot Packers offense might have what it takes to make a deep playoff run.
Since the San Francisco 49ers are out of the playoff picture, the Packers' biggest postseason kryptonite isn't in play. Meanwhile, arguably the best team in the NFL, the Detroit Lions, is being pulverized by injuries, losing multiple key starters for the rest of the season on Sunday, including Alim McNeil and David Montgomery.
An injury-plagued Lions team is still dangerous, but eventually, the injuries will be too much to overcome.
The two main threats to a potential Super Bowl run for Green Bay are the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles. The Packers will get a chance to see how they stack up against the Vikings again in a couple of weeks, but the Eagles will likely present the bigger challenge.
Along with a top-tier defense, the Eagles' offense matches up well against Green Bay. They have a cheat code in their Tush Push play that can hurt the interior of the Packers defense, while A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith present a serious mismatch against Green Bay's thin cornerback room, even if Jaire Alexander is 100 percent healthy.
Anything can happen in the playoffs, but with the way Green Bay is playing right now, there might not be another team in the NFC that could completely shut down the Packers.
This could be Love's breakout run right now, while Packers fans hope Toyota will extend its Toyotahon through the Super Bowl to keep the magic going.
