NFL Analysis
12/15/24
6 min read
Josh Allen’s MVP Moment: Bills QB Dominates Lions in Epic Shootout
After an entire season of debate about the NFL MVP, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen put it away with a dominant performance in Week 15.
Allen dominated against the Super Bowl favorites in the Detroit Lions on Sunday, surviving a thrilling 48-42 shootout for the highest-scoring game of the NFL season. The former first-round pick completed 23-of-34 passes for 362 yards and two touchdowns in the shootout win but also added two scores on the ground.
The win moved the Bills to 11-3 and gave the Lions their first loss since Week 2. The final score may have looked close, but Allen and the Bills were in complete control throughout the entire game.
There was discussion before Week 15, but after that kind of outing, there's no real argument against Allen winning the first MVP award of his career.
An MVP Season
It's hard to overstate just how dominant Allen has been lately.
Four total scores on Sunday against a Super Bowl favorite feels like light work compared to some of the games the Bills quarterback has had this season. Just last week, he became the first player in NFL history to record three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in the same game in a spirited comeback attempt against the Los Angeles Rams.
The box score numbers look nice, but the advanced metrics look even better. Allen generated an absurd 26.3 total EPA on Sunday, including an elite 0.59 EPA per play.
It's not like Allen is dinking and dunking around the field, either. His average depth of target was 10.7 yards on Sunday, throwing some impressive off-script deep shots to generate explosive plays for Buffalo's offense.
What makes Allen's season so impressive compared to previous ones in his career is the drastic jump in efficiency. While he's not going to set career-high marks for passing touchdowns or yards, he's doing a much better job of taking care of the ball. His five interceptions are pacing to be the lowest of his career in a single season, while he's close to his career high in both yards per pass attempt and passer rating.
That passing efficiency doesn't mean that Allen has scaled back his big-play potential, either. According to Pro Football Focus, he leads the NFL with 33 big-time throws but also one of the lowest turnover-worthy throw rates in the league. He's also doing an outstanding job of avoiding sacks and making good decisions under duress, with the second-lowest pressure-to-sack ratio in the league at just 8.6 percent.
It's not like trying to ramp up pressure on Allen has been a good idea, anyway. Per PFF, Allen has thrown for 1,197 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just two interceptions for a 119.7 passer rating when facing the blitz this season.
On top of all of the production and efficiency, it's the highlight moments and team success that have solidified Allen's MVP resume. Big moments include a game-sealing touchdown run against the Kansas City Chiefs and also catching a lateral in the snow from his teammate for what was credited as a touchdown pass to himself.
"Amari Cooper to Josh Allen for the TD!" is a new one 😂
— NFL (@NFL) December 2, 2024
📺: #SFvsBUF on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/scnnIT0NOL
The Bills are firmly second in the AFC with an 11-3 record, and they're clicking at the right time. Big wins in recent weeks against the Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions have helped them test themselves against playoff-caliber teams, and their late-season surge is helping Allen continue to build up MVP momentum.
Dwindling Cases
There were a few other deserving candidates earlier this season, but Lamar Jackson and Saquon Barkley haven't carried their momentum late into the year.
Jackson is the closest to Allen in the MVP race and made an awfully compelling case as well on Sunday. He threw for 290 yards and five touchdowns while completing 84 percent of his passes and rushing for another 65 yards on just six carries.
.@Lj_era8 takes off and runs for the first down. 😤
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 15, 2024
Tune in in CBS and @paramountplus!! pic.twitter.com/XzC44VScrc
However, some modest performances in recent weeks, combined with two losses to the Eagles and Steelers in their last four games, have slowed down any kind of MVP talk.
It's not like Jackson had a bad year; he will likely still make an All-Pro team, but a 9-5 record combined with a lack of an "MVP moment" and potentially voter fatigue will all hurt his chances unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks.
Barkley had also started to generate some MVP buzz, particularly after a dominant rushing performance against the Rams as he rushed for 255 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a dominant win. He followed that up with two more games with 100-plus yards rushing.
6. SAQUON BARKLEY IS GONE! 70 YARDS! pic.twitter.com/Xt99HE6bAg
— Nick Piccone (@_piccone) November 25, 2024
However, Barkley was held mostly in check against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He averaged just 3.4 yards per carry, finishing with 65 yards on 19 carries. It's unfair to hold him to such a high standard in the award race, but Barkley was going to have to put up absurd numbers every single week to keep up with the competition due to the nature of the running back position.
Other contenders like Jared Goff had nice seasons but were never in the race to begin with. Instead, Allen has continued to put up superhuman performances against some of the NFL's best teams in primetime games, creating the perfect recipe to win the MVP.
Can The Bills Win it All?
For all of the excitement around Allen's MVP case in Buffalo, the Bills are far more focused on trying to break their Super Bowl curse.
The Bills look like the favorite in the AFC, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking more than mortal despite their 13-1 record. Kansas City's offensive line is starting to be exposed, and playoff-caliber teams should be able to take advantage of that weakness once the playoffs begin.
Other AFC teams have clear flaws, but the Bills look like a juggernaut. They ranked fourth in total team DVOA heading into Sunday but just took down the top-ranked team by that same metric in the Lions. Their offense is led by an MVP favorite, and their defense has stepped up in big moments in recent weeks, even if they've played in shootouts during their last two games.
Allen and the Bills have the chance to reach the Super Bowl. However, to finally break their curse, they'll need another performance like today if they face a team like Detroit again in New Orleans.
