NFL Analysis
11/11/24
7 min read
Kansas City Chiefs' Perfect Record Is Hiding Major Offensive Flaws
The Kansas City Chiefs aren't a fraudulent team by any means, but their perfect 9-0 record has obscured many of the team's bigger issues.
In the most unlikely of ways, the Chiefs pulled off a 16-14 win against the Denver Broncos on Sunday. After a successful drive down the field from rookie QB Bo Nix, the Broncos just needed a 35-yard field goal as time expired to win the game.
Instead, the Chiefs found a way to block it.
Broncos announcers lament the greatness of the Kansas City Chiefs kick-blocking unit pic.twitter.com/0wDZjUH664
— 📽️ Red Tribe Cinema (@ClayWendler) November 10, 2024
The Chiefs are now 7-0 in one-score games this season, despite some close calls against hypothetically weaker opponents like the Raiders, Chargers, and Bengals. One-score game regression has been analyzed for years, but the Chiefs keep finding ways to squeak those games out.
Media outlets will start turning their attention towards the Chiefs trying to go 17-0, but even if they do go undefeated, the record is hiding some real blemishes with the team.
Is Mahomes Still Magic?
Patrick Mahomes keeps finding ways to win football games. However, he hasn't been the same kind of electric playmaker as he was during the last couple of seasons.
With a 90.3 passer rating, Mahomes is at the lowest mark of his career. He's also on pace for a career-high in interceptions, throwing nine through the first nine games. His previous career-high was 14 last season, but he's on pace for 17 this year.
Instead of relying on his rocket arm, Mahomes is trying to dink and dunk his way down the field. According to Pro Football Focus, he has the second-lowest average depth of target at 6.4 yards, ahead of only Tua Tagovailoa.
Even when Mahomes gets the ball out, his receivers aren't doing as much after the catch as they did earlier in his career. NFELO has Mahomes ANY/A at 5.8 yards, which ranks 24th out of 44 quarterbacks in the league.
The departure of Tyreek Hill has completely changed the way the Chiefs' passing game has found success. Mahomes can no longer rely on deep shots consistently to make big plays. Instead, he has to keep throwing underneath to generate first downs,
Rookie WR Xavier Worthy was supposed to fill the void that Hill had left. However, the 165-pound receiver is struggling to be a reliable option in the offense. According to TruMedia, Worthy is catching just 46.5 percent of his targets this year and just 0.90 yards per route run.
Despite his explosiveness and top-end play speed, Worthy is still trying to learn the finer details as a deep-ball threat. This incompletion from last week's Monday Night Football contest is a good example of Worthy getting open but drifting toward the sideline to make it harder to catch the pass in bounds.
— dubs408 (@dubsvidstouse) November 5, 2024
It was always going to take time for Worthy to get acclimated to the NFL. However, with him struggling while Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown are hurt, the Chiefs have lacked a true deep threat.
The acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins gives the Chiefs a more reliable, established veteran on the outside. However, the 32-year-old star has never been considered a deep threat. In fact, according to PFF, Hopkins has only been targeted three times all season on throws deeper than 20 yards downfield.
That has resulted in Mahomes shying away from the deep ball almost entirely. Heading into Sunday, Mahomes was attempting just 6.3 percent of his passes 20 or more yards downfield, per PFF. That's the lowest mark of his career, and Sunday's performance against the Broncos was more of the same.
Offensive line play has also been an issue for the Chiefs, forcing Mahomes to get the ball out quickly rather than trying to wait for guys to get open deep downfield.
Jawaan Taylor and Wanya Morris have struggled with consistency on the offensive line, while rookie Kingsley Suamataia was benched just weeks into his first NFL season after struggling to handle NFL pass rushers. Morris leads the team in pressures allowed (19) despite playing in one less game than the rest of the starting unit, and Taylor is right behind him, having allowed 13 pressures this season.
All of this isn't to say that Mahomes is having a bad season. He's making the most of the talent and system around him, and it's a big reason why he is second in the NFL in success rate behind Lamar Jackson.
However, the team's inability to push the ball vertically could become a real problem once the playoffs begin.
Mounting Injuries
The Chiefs keep winning games in a miraculous fashion, but at some point, the injuries that keep piling up will be too much to overcome.
Injuries have been a huge story for the Chiefs dating back to the preseason when newly-acquired receiver Hollywood Brown required shoulder surgery that will force him to miss the entire regular season. A few weeks later, breakout star WR Rashee Rice suffered a serious knee injury that likely ended his season.
Even star RB Isiah Pacheco has missed the majority of the season with a leg injury. The good news is that the starter is eyeing a late November return to finally give Kansas City's backfield some juice.
Defensively, the Chiefs have also missed some key contributors. One of their top pass rushers, Charles Omenihu, has been out for the entire season after suffering a torn ACL in last year's postseason. Meanwhile, the Chiefs lost another key starter in ascending CB Jaylen Watson, who is likely out for the year with a broken ankle.
Some of those players could return in the not-too-distant future, but mounting injuries will make it even harder for the Chiefs to keep going once the playoffs begin.
The Chiefs Are Still Super Bowl Favorites
An undefeated record hides many issues for the Chiefs, but at the end of the day, this still might be one of the best teams in the league.
The advanced metrics are bullish on the Chiefs in all three phases of the game. According to FTN Fantasy, the Chiefs are the third-best team in the NFL by DVOA, ranking ninth in offense, fourth in defense, and 13th in special teams DVOA.
All of this success has happened despite one of the harder schedules in the league. According to NFELO, the Chiefs have had the seventh-hardest schedule played through the first 10 weeks of the season but have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule.
That's a promising trend for a team that keeps finding ways to win games. They have a tough upcoming game against the Buffalo Bills but will then play the Panthers, Raiders, and Browns in three of their next four games.
The Chiefs showed last year that they're capable of flipping a switch and turning it on once the playoffs begin. The Athletic gives them a 78 percent chance of securing a first-round bye, and one fewer playoff game would make their path to winning their third straight Super Bowl even easier.
