Analysis

9/7/23

10 min read

Kev Wheeler's 2023 NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Kev Wheeler

Baltimore Ravens Mark Andrews
Jan 1, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) reacts after making a catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

These 2023 NFL Week 1 fantasy rankings for points per reception (PPR) and half-PPR leagues include my top 32 quarterbacks, top 50 running backs, top 70 wide receivers and top 24 tight ends.

These rankings are submitted to two different rankings competitions, one with PPR scoring and the other half-PPR. They are far more accurate for PPR simply because PPR scoring is less influenced by touchdowns.

Week 1 is always difficult to forecast how players will perform because there is so much variance in football. There is a reason the famous football movie was titled "Any Given Sunday." That variance is no different in fantasy scoring because touchdowns weigh so heavily. However, in Week 1, we are unsure of usage. Ambiguous backfields, new faces in the receiving game and new coaches in new places all add to the confusion in the first few weeks. 

In fantasy, those who get it right have a huge advantage.

Please join our Free Discord to provide feedback; it could help improve my process. 

Quarterbacks

Defensive tackle Chris Jones, the Kansas City Chiefs' best defensive player, continues his holdout. This could mean good things for the Detroit Lions' offense. Meanwhile, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes gets a favorable matchup to start the season against the Lions. Detroit was 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt while ranking 24th in touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks.

Rank Name Team Opponent
1 Patrick Mahomes  KC vs. DET
2 Jalen Hurts PHI @ NE
3 Lamar Jackson BAL vs. HOU
4 Justin Herbert LAC vs. MIA
5 Josh Allen BUF @ NYJ
6 Trevor Lawrence JAC @ IND
7 Justin Fields CHI vs. GB
8 Geno Smith SEA vs. LAR
9 Joe Burrow CIN @ CLE
10 Tua Tagovailoa MIA @ LAC
11 Kirk Cousins MIN vs. TB
12 Dak Prescott DAL @ NYG
13 Jared Goff DET @ KC
14 Daniel Jones NYG vs. DAL
15 Anthony Richardson IND vs. JAC
16 Deshaun Watson CLE vs. CIN
17 Russell Wilson DEN vs. LV
18 Derek Carr NO vs. TEN
19 Aaron Rodgers NYJ vs. BUF
20 Sam Howell WAS vs. ARI
21 Jordan Love GB @ CHI
22 Matthew Stafford LAR @ SEA
23 Kenny Pickett PIT vs. SF
24 Brock Purdy SF @ PIT
25 Baker Mayfield TB @ MIN
26 Bryce Young CAR @ ATL
27 Desmond Ridder ATL vs. CAR
28 Ryan Tannehill TEN @ NO
29 Jimmy Garoppolo LV @ DEN
30 Mac Jones NE vs. PHI
31 C.J. Stroud HOU @ BAL
32 Joshua Dobbs ARI @ WAS

NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported "all signs point" to Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (calf) suiting up for Week 1 against the Cleveland Browns. We shouldn’t have had any doubt he will start. 

The Arizona Cardinals are expected to have Josh Dobbs as their starting quarterback. This doesn’t matter for regular seasonal fantasy, but it might be useful in unique formats. 

Running Backs

The Thursday Night Football opener showcases Detroit's new backfield of first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs and free agent acquisition David Montgomery. The Lions had a compartmentalized backfield split last season between Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift.

Still, Montgomery is more of a three-down asset than Williams was, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said “Gibbs will be used in unexpected ways.” When Jones was off the field last season, running backs rushed for 4.8 yards per carry against Kansas City, which would have been 26th in the league.

Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons will begin his case for Offensive Rookie of the Year with a big day vs. a subpar Carolina rush defense. 

Rank Name Team Opponent
1 Bijan Robinson ATL vs. CAR
2 Christian McCaffrey SF @ PIT
3 Austin Ekeler LAC vs. MIA
4 Nick Chubb CLE vs. CIN
5 Tony Pollard DAL @ NYG
6 Derrick Henry TEN @ NO
7 J.K. Dobbins BAL vs. HOU
8 Saquon Barkley NYG vs. DAL
9 Josh Jacobs LV @ DEN
10 Joe Mixon CIN @ CLE
11 Travis Etienne Jr. JAC @ IND
12 Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ KC
13 Rhamondre Stevenson NE vs. PHI
14 Aaron Jones GB @ CHI
15 Kenneth Walker III SEA vs. LAR
16 Najee Harris PIT vs. SF
17 Rachaad White TB @ MIN
18 David Montgomery DET @ KC
19 Dameon Pierce HOU @ BAL
20 Cam Akers LAR @ SEA
21 James Conner ARI @ WAS
22 Miles Sanders CAR @ ATL
23 Isiah Pacheco KC vs. DET
24 Alexander Mattison MIN vs. TB
25 Jamaal Williams NO vs. TEN
26 James Cook BUF @ NYJ
27 Breece Hall NYJ vs. BUF
28 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS vs. ARI
29 Raheem Mostert MIA @ LAC
30 Khalil Herbert CHI vs. GB
31 Javonte Williams DEN vs. LV
32 Samaje Perine DEN vs. LV
33 D'Andre Swift PHI @ NE
34 Antonio Gibson WAS vs. ARI
35 AJ Dillon GB @ CHI
36 Zach Charbonnet SEA vs. LAR
37 Jerick McKinnon KC vs. DET
38 Dalvin Cook NYJ vs. BUF
39 Tyler Allgeier ATL vs. CAR
40 Deon Jackson IND vs. JAC
41 Damien Harris BUF @ NYJ
42 Elijah Mitchell SF @ PIT
43 Jaylen Warren PIT vs. SF
44 Kenneth Gainwell PHI @ NE
45 Rashaad Penny PHI @ NE
46 Gus Edwards BAL vs. HOU
47 Ezekiel Elliott NE vs. PHI
48 Tank Bigsby JAC @ IND
49 Chuba Hubbard CAR @ ATL
50 De'Von Achane MIA @ LAC

Breece Hall did not practice Monday, but New York Jets coach Robert Saleh stated it was a maintenance day. Hall, who tore his ACL last season, is expected to be ready for Week 1, but the team will be smart with his workload.

Isiah Pacheco is not listed on the Chiefs' injury report heading into Thursday's game against the Lions.

The Eagles listed all four running backs as starters on their final depth chart. Kenneth Gainwell is likely to see the high-value touches we want for fantasy. He is the primary running back in the two-minute drill, and he is the most trusted by the coaching staff. 

De'Von Achane (shoulder) returned to practice for the Miami Dolphins on Monday. Achane has missed time due to his shoulder injury. We should expect him to get a few touches this week, with an expanded role in future weeks. 

With Jonathan Taylor (ankle) on the PUP list, the Indianapolis Colts are expected to use a running back committee early in the season. 

Chad Graff of The Athletic reported that Ezekiel Elliott could become the go-to goal-line back for the New England Patriots. This would cut into Rhamondre Stevenson's upside, which is why many were fading him after Elliott's signing. 

Kendre Miller, who has been battling a hamstring injury, was reportedly not seen at the New Orleans Saints' practice Wednesday.

Wide Receivers

As The 33rd Team's Jordan Vanek points out, touchdowns are especially unpredictable in Week 1. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown accounted for 33.3 percent of the Lions' targets when he was on the field last season, and with Jameson Williams serving a six-game suspension to start the season, those kind of numbers will likely continue to start this season.

St. Brown’s strongest immediate target competition will be two rookies, Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta. Josh Reynolds should see deep targets and could be a cheap, low-owned DFS play this week. He should not be started in regular fantasy but will likely be featured in a “That Helps No One” segment. 

Rank Name Team Opponent
1 Justin Jefferson MIN vs. TB
2 Ja'Marr Chase CIN @ CLE
3 Tyreek Hill MIA @ LAC
4 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ KC
5 CeeDee Lamb DAL @ NYG
6 A.J. Brown PHI @ NE
7 Stefon Diggs BUF @ NYJ
8 Chris Olave NO vs. TEN
9 Davante Adams LV @ DEN
10 Garrett Wilson NYJ vs. BUF
11 Jaylen Waddle MIA @ LAC
12 DK Metcalf SEA vs. LAR
13 Keenan Allen LAC vs. MIA
14 Calvin Ridley JAC @ IND
15 DeVonta Smith PHI @ NE
16 Tee Higgins CIN @ CLE
17 Amari Cooper CLE vs. CIN
18 Tyler Lockett SEA vs. LAR
19 Drake London ATL vs. CAR
20 DJ Moore CHI vs. GB
21 Jahan Dotson WAS vs. ARI
22 Deebo Samuel SF @ PIT
23 Chris Godwin TB @ MIN
24 DeAndre Hopkins TEN @ NO
25 Mike Evans TB @ MIN
26 Mike Williams LAC vs. MIA
27 Brandon Aiyuk SF @ PIT
28 Diontae Johnson PIT vs. SF
29 Christian Watson GB @ CHI
30 Christian Kirk JAC @ IND
31 Michael Pittman Jr. IND vs. JAC
32 Courtland Sutton DEN vs. LV
33 Marquise Brown ARI @ WAS
34 George Pickens PIT vs. SF
35 Brandin Cooks DAL @ NYG
36 Skyy Moore KC vs. DET
37 Jordan Addison MIN vs. TB
38 Gabe Davis BUF @ NYJ
39 Zay Flowers BAL vs. HOU
40 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE vs. PHI
41 Michael Thomas NO vs. TEN
42 Treylon Burks TEN @ NO
43 Jakobi Meyers LV @ DEN
44 Van Jefferson LAR @ SEA
45 Elijah Moore CLE vs. CIN
46 Odell Beckham Jr. BAL vs. HOU
47 Rashod Bateman BAL vs. HOU
48 Kadarius Toney KC vs. DET
49 Terry McLaurin WAS vs. ARI
50 Allen Lazard NYJ vs. BUF
51 Nico Collins HOU @ BAL
52 Zay Jones JAC @ IND
53 Marvin Mims Jr. DEN vs. LV
54 Adam Thielen CAR @ ATL
55 Darnell Mooney CHI vs. GB
56 Tyler Boyd CIN @ CLE
57 Romeo Doubs GB @ CHI
58 Curtis Samuel WAS vs. ARI
59 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC vs. DET
60 DeVante Parker NE vs. PHI
61 Michael Gallup DAL @ NYG
62 Quentin Johnston LAC vs. MIA
63 DJ Chark Jr. CAR @ ATL
64 Alec Pierce IND vs. JAC
65 K.J. Osborn MIN vs. TB
66 Isaiah Hodgins NYG vs. DAL
67 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE vs. CIN
68 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs. LAR
69 Jonathan Mingo CAR @ ATL
70 Darius Slayton NYG vs. DAL

Christian Watson (hamstring) did not take part in Green Bay Packers practice Wednesday, joining Romeo Doubs (hamstring) on the injury list. Watson’s status is unknown, but there will be updates in our free Discord. 

Terry McLaurin (toe) is still considered day-to-day, and his status for Week 1 is uncertain. If he's out, fantasy managers can expect Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel to be heavily targeted. Turf toe is an injury that lingers, so we should begin considering Dotson the offense's primary receiver. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (wrist) practiced Monday, which is a good sign for the Seattle Seahawks, but we should not have him in our starting lineups yet. Rookies are post-bye-week performers traditionally, especially when injured in the preseason. 

Sports Illustrated reported that Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay expects Puka Nacua to be an 'immediate contributor' to the team. With Cooper Kupp ruled out for Week 1, the rookie has an opportunity to prove himself right away. Don’t be surprised if QB Matthew Stafford leans on his veterans, though. TE Tyler Higbee probably will benefit the most, with WRs Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell picking up targets, as well. 

Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) is likely out for several weeks, so second-round rookie Marvin Mims has a clear path to targets for the Denver Broncos. He is flex-worthy in deeper leagues. 

Kadarius Toney, who was trending toward playing despite a knee injury, is off the Chiefs' injury report and will play Thursday.

Adam Thielen popped up on the Carolina Panthers' Wednesday injury report. He logged a limited session due to an ankle injury.

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Tight Ends

Travis Kelce suffered a knee injury during practice Tuesday and underwent an MRI. Results indicate the injury isn't a serious issue, but his status for Thursday is in doubt. If Kelce is out, TE Noah Gray and WRs Skyy Moore, Richie James and Toney should get more work.

Rank Name Team Opponent
1 Mark Andrews BAL vs. HOU
2 T.J. Hockenson MIN vs. TB
3 Tyler Higbee LAR @ SEA
4 Darren Waller NYG vs. DAL
5 Travis Kelce KC vs. DET
6 Dallas Goedert PHI @ NE
7 David Njoku CLE vs. CIN
8 George Kittle SF @ PIT
9 Evan Engram JAC @ IND
10 Pat Freiermuth PIT vs. SF
11 Cole Kmet CHI vs. GB
12 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN @ NO
13 Juwan Johnson NO vs. TEN
14 Sam LaPorta DET @ KC
15 Kyle Pitts ATL vs. CAR
16 Dalton Schultz HOU @ BAL
17 Taysom Hill NO vs. TEN
18 Jake Ferguson DAL @ NYG
19 Greg Dulcich DEN vs. LV
20 Gerald Everett LAC vs. MIA
21 Dalton Kincaid BUF @ NYJ
22 Hayden Hurst CAR @ ATL
23 Irv Smith Jr. CIN @ CLE
24 Hunter Henry NE vs. PHI
25 Noah Fant SEA vs. LAR

San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle was seen running off to the side during practice on Monday. He could miss the team's season opener at Pittsburgh with a groin injury.

The Baltimore Ravens' Mark Andrews returned to practice Wednesday after he had missed six-straight practices. 

Updates

We will be available in the 33rd team Discord on Sunday mornings from 11 a.m. EST until kickoff to answer any last-minute start-sit questions. 

Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Tags: Adam Thielen, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons See More

Kev Wheeler

Kev Wheeler is a former high school baseball and football coach who has been a fantasy football addict for more than 25 years. As a coach, Wheeler's teams accomplished five county and two regional championships. Wheeler has translated his on-field success to the fantasy football arena.

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