NFL Analysis
1/17/25
11 min read
Key For Each Team to Win In 2025 NFL Divisional Round
The best football weekend of the year has arrived. With four games headlining the NFL Divisional Round and Conference Championship bids on the line, we'll get the biggest stars put in the most stressful situations known in the sport. This is where legacies and franchise icons are built.
The ghosts of yesterday could rear their ugly heads again. Or, we could see the next generation breakthrough and upend what we've grown to expect. All eight teams remaining have a path to winning this round regardless of betting expectations or public opinion.
We have the top key to win for all eight NFL Divisional Round teams. Following these scripts will give each team the chance to win and get one step closer to a Super Bowl appearance.
Keys to Win NFL Divisional Round Matchup
Kansas City Chiefs: Consistently Execute 
Unsurprisingly, the NFL's top seed has major advantages all over the field against an injury-depleted Houston Texans roster that is still in the process of rebuilding. With a Hall of Fame head coach, quarterback, tight end, defensive coordinator, and defensive tackle, the Kansas City Chiefs have played with their prey throughout the season. Winning ugly is impressive to a point, but going 15-2 with seven wins and a scoring margin under six is concerning.
The Chiefs took Week 18 off and are coming off a bye. We've seen their offense come out sluggish and uninterested until they have to ramp up later in the game. Houston lost to Kansas City in Week 16, 27-19, in large part because the Chiefs scored 17 in the first half before a defensive battle broke out in the second half.
Kansas City had respectable numbers, producing more first downs and yards, fewer penalties and sacks, and converting more than half of its third downs. It wasn't a notable game for Patrick Mahomes or anyone else, but they consistently executed. That's all that must happen this week to advance.
Detroit Lions: Surprise Jayden Daniels
Beating Jayden Daniels is difficult despite Washington not having an overly talented roster around him. Daniels doesn't play like a typical rookie, and his dynamic blend of throwing accuracy and rushing explosiveness makes him incredibly hard to defend. As is always the case when facing any quarterback, getting pressure without blitzing extra defenders has proven most effective.
The Detroit Lions may not be able to drop seven into coverage effectively without getting nickel and dimed down the field and getting worn out over four quarters, so the element of timing and surprise will be key. Daniels' completion rate plummets from 75.7 percent when clean to 47.6 percent when pressured, and his turnover-worthy-throw rate more than triples because he'll hold onto the ball for 1.5 seconds longer.
Jayden takes it himself!! 1st down and in FG range with less than :40 to go 👀
— NFL (@NFL) January 13, 2025
📺: #WASvsTB on NBC
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/YFb1x4TrHq
Aaron Glenn has more than earned a head coaching role with his brilliant development of the Lions' defense, and this week's test will be another opportunity to highlight his talent. Losing Aidan Hutchinson has forced Alim McNeill, Za'Darius Smith, and Levi Onwuzurike to headline a defensive line that does just enough to help a young and struggling secondary.
Detroit's top-four defensive backs have allowed at least a 57 percent completion rate, but only rookie Terrion Arnold has struggled to limit receivers after the catch. Amik Robertson, Brian Branch, and Carlton Davis have passer ratings under 88.2, so it's a capable unit, even if they're not perfect.
Blending mixed coverages, simulated pressures, zone drops, and occasional blitzes is easier said than done, but Glenn has to do whatever it takes to prevent this game from becoming an offensive shootout.
Baltimore Ravens: Own the Time of Possession
The toughest game of the week to predict is Buffalo vs. the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have a terrifying offense with the addition of Derrick Henry, but Zay Flowers may not play, and Lamar Jackson is looking to exorcise his playoff demons. It's easy to say the Ravens must shut down Josh Allen or have Henry run wild, but the overall strategy of the game encompasses multiple factors.
It doesn't matter how Baltimore attacks Buffalo's average defense as long as they limit the possessions Allen has available to him. The Bills' defense is bend-don't-break, surrendering the 17th-most yards but forcing the highest percentage of turnovers per drive in the NFL. Their ability to take the ball away led to the offense benefitting from the best starting field position in the league.
However, Buffalo's defense is a bottom-10 unit in plays per drive against and time per drive. There's a weakness Baltimore can attack that is well within the strength of their offensive scheme and talent.
Baltimore's super-efficient offense complements their defense more effectively, so pairing that efficiency with longer drives can wear Buffalo out and demoralize their defense.
Philadelphia Eagles: Trench Warfare
No team overwhelms their opponents in the trenches as effectively as the Philadelphia Eagles. Not only do they invest heavily into the offensive and defensive lines, but the Eagles hit home runs more often than not with those pickups. Having a punishing run game and terrific pass rush allows Philadelphia to win most games without going overboard with fancy schematic adjustments.
This matchup against the Los Angeles Rams' offensive line is as lopsided as any single positional group has this week. The Rams allowed 10 quarterback pressures against Minnesota last week and only produced 90 yards on 22 carries. Four of their five offensive linemen graded terribly for PFF, confirming the eye test that Matthew Stafford was fighting for his life to create offense.
Philadelphia's offensive line is the best in the NFL, but its hands will be full when it's its turn to see the field. The Eagles will lick their chops at the Rams' porous run defense, which gives up 4.6 yards per carry. However, the Rams do get after quarterbacks effectively, as Jared Verse and Byron Young are already proving to be franchise cornerstones.
The Eagles don't need to be perfect to win, but they can make relatively quick work of the Rams if their trenches play to their immense potential.
Buffalo Bills: Win the Turnover Battle
The Buffalo Bills' innate ability to generate turnovers makes them a remarkably unique threat in the postseason. In most years, turnovers proved to be unreliable and fluky every week. However, the Bills aren't getting their numbers padded by one or two stars. Instead, nine players have at least one interception, and no one has more than two.
They've also recovered 18 defensive fumbles to go with 16 interceptions. While Lamar Jackson only coughed up four interceptions all year, he put 10 fumbles on the ground. The chances are decent that the Bills will be able to get their hands on one or the other at some point in this matchup.
Josh Allen is capable of his own postseason blunders, but both of these incredible playmakers will look to blend historic explosiveness with efficiency. Coming out on top of the turnover battle is imperative when so much about this matchup is otherwise as close as it gets.
Washington Commanders: Clog Passing Lanes
Slowing down the Lions' offense is more than just hitting Jared Goff hard, loading the box to deter them from handing the ball to Jahmyr Gibbs, or being a maniacal schemer. Dan Quinn is an elite defensive mind and will have a quality game plan for what he's seen from Ben Johnson this season, but the execution of what you've seen is even more difficult when Detroit might debut new wrinkles.
Clogged passing lanes are undoubtedly needed so Goff can hold the ball longer than he wants. Goff is one of the most extreme examples of an elite pocket passer when he's kept upright and has clean passing lanes, but he's barely playable when the lanes get muddy. Goff's small hands are ripe for strip sacks, plus he struggles quickly reacting to closing defenders. His accuracy then takes a massive dip when he can't step into his throws.
With his passer rating dropping from 122.3 to 79.4 when clean compared to being under pressure, part of Quinn's plan must be sending extra pressure against one of the NFL's best offensive lines. But the other part is taking away quick and clear passing lanes. Goff will cough the ball up if linebackers drop to defend curls and digs unexpectedly or if safeties hang over crossers and slants.
Fighting an uphill battle without the high-end talent needed to simply line up and compete, Washington will have to be lucky and creative to give Goff new looks.
Houston Texans: Slow it Down
The classic strategy for any underdog is to slow every drive down to a snail's pace, reduce possessions, and raise the stakes of every key conversion and scoring opportunity. The Houston Texans lost the time of possession battle in their most recent matchup a few weeks ago, and a big part of that was inflicting wounds on themselves. Throwing two interceptions and committing six penalties essentially handed the game to Kansas City.
Playing slower doesn't necessarily prevent those mistakes, especially when there's a coaching and talent gap like here. But if Houston can clean up its own game and force a turnover or two, then limit how many times Mahomes has the ball, its window opens. Executing that plan won't be easy, of course.
Being a mobile QB isn’t all about rushing yards Fitz Magic. CJ Stroud had 233 yards rushing this year and he is definitely mobile. The proof is on the film, not just the stat sheet. Here you go my guy 🤙🏾 pic.twitter.com/chxXKuDR4a
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) January 14, 2025
Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik needs to pull off a performance that turns back the clock to 2023. He's struggled to adjust to the myriad of injuries and setbacks the unit has had, going with vanilla play calls and designs far too often. Being without Tank Dell, who racked up 98 yards against the Chiefs earlier this season, makes his job even harder.
Riding Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce in between downfield shots to Nico Collins and John Metchie can give Houston at least a puncher's chance.
Los Angeles Rams: It's Cooper Kupp Time
The Los Angeles Rams are young, and their advanced numbers show that they were average from a full-season perspective. The last seven weeks haven't brought the results of an average team, though. Going 6-1 in that span, including an explosive win against Buffalo, is a bit misrepresentative of how good this Rams team is because four came against opponents with losing records.
Still, the Rams have made do with a battered offensive line, an unheralded defense that has outperformed the investments made in it, and a receiving corps that can't be counted on. Winning ugly still counts, and it's all that matters now. The Rams are facing a tall task against Philadelphia, so they need a major injection of playmaking.
The answer is for Cooper Kupp to re-emerge as an impact playmaker. The 31-year-old has been a shell of himself for the majority of the season, producing only four games with more than 80 yards. He has only 82 yards during the last four games. So, why should the Rams look to the past and hope Kupp breaks out?
The unit simply has no other alternative right now. Puka Nacua has dealt with similar injury concerns, and at least Kupp has played his best in big moments. Kupp's only big game since mid-November came against Buffalo, where he totaled five catches for 92 yards and one touchdown.
That might not be enough to beat the Eagles single-handedly, but it's part of a healthy offense that allows the Rams to survive in an explosive offensive game.
