NFL Analysis
1/8/24
6 min read
Key Stats, Information From NFL's Last Three Hiring Cycles
Plenty of factors go into an NFL team hiring a head coach. Do they want an offensive or defensive-minded coach? Does professional experience matter or is a fresh face from college the right move?
As many teams enter the hiring cycle, here's what to know from the last three hiring cycles. This article contains key information from the last three years of head coach, coordinator and general manager hiring.
>> READ: 2024 Coaching Carousel Tracker
What Teams Look For In a Head Coach
NFL head coaches hired directly from college are becoming rare. Since 2019, only three head coaches have been directly hired from college — Kliff Kingsbury, Matt Rhule and Urban Meyer — who filled 8.57 percent of openings in that span. The trio combined for a 41-76-1 record in the NFL.
Since 2000, the only college head coaches to have a win-loss percentage over .500 after being hired directly from college are Jim Harbaugh, Bill O’Brien and Chip Kelly.
Since 2021, 63.64 percent of head coaching vacancies have been filled with coaches with offensive backgrounds.
Eight of these coaches were first-time head coaches with no head coaching experience at any level.
Since 2021, first-time head coaches have been on the rise. Of the 22 vacant positions, 13 (59.1 percent) were filled with coaches who had no prior head coaching experience at any level.
Eight of those coaches had an offensive background, making up 61.54 percent of the first-time hires in that span.
Internal hirings are also rare. In that span, 2022 is the only year to see internal candidates get promoted to head coach — Dennis Allen in New Orleans, Lovie Smith in Houston and Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay.
This means that since 2021, only 13.64 percent of head coach vacancies were filled with internal candidates.
If you’re looking for a positional coach to fill a head coach opening, there has only been one since 2021, Dan Campbell. Campbell made the jump from Saints tight ends coach to Detroit Lions head coach.
Since 2019, Joe Judge and Brian Flores were the only other positional coaches to become head coaches. Judge was the Patriots’ special teams coordinator and wide receivers coach in 2019 before becoming the New York Giants' head coach. Flores served as the Patriots linebackers coach in 2018 before becoming the Miami Dolphins' head coach.
Coordinator jobs have been volatile for the past few years. There have been at least 10 coordinator changes on either side of the ball since 2021. In fact, 2023 saw 16 new offensive coordinator hires and 26 total coordinator changes between offense and defense.
2023 Coaching/GM Carousel BreakDown
The 2023 offseason saw five head coaching hires. Three were first-time head coaches — DeMeco Ryans in Houston, Jonathan Gannon in Arizona and Shane Steichen in Indianapolis — and two had previous experience — Sean Payton in Denver and Frank Reich in Carolina. There were no internal hires.
There also were two general manager hires (both external): Ran Carthon in Tennessee and Monti Ossenfort in Arizona. Neither had held the sole title of GM before, and neither worked in the same organization as their head coach before.
There were 16 new offensive coordinator hires, only three of whom had no prior OC experience at the collegiate or NFL level — Drew Petzing in Arizona, Bobby Slowik in Houston, and Dave Canales in Tampa Bay. Canales had been an OC before but at the high school level. He was OC at Carson High in California from 2004-05.
There were four internal OC hires — Tim Kelly in Tennessee, Brian Johnson in Philadelphia, Brian Schottenheimer in Dallas and Matt Nagy in Kansas City.
Only one team hired an offensive coordinator from college: the Baltimore Ravens brought on Todd Monken from the University of Georgia.
There were 10 new defensive coordinators, one of whom was internal (Derrick Ansley, Los Angeles Chargers, was promoted from defensive backs coach) and only one who had no previous DC experience at any level (Nick Ralls in Arizona).
2022 Coaching/GM Carousel Breakdown
The 2022 offseason featured 10 head coaching hires, five of which were first-time head coaches. The first-timers were Mike McDaniel (Dolphins), Kevin O'Connell (Vikings), Matt Eberflus (Bears), Nathaniel Hackett (Broncos) and Brian Daboll (Giants).
This group included three internal head coaching hires — all were the team's defensive coordinator the previous season — Smith, Allen and Bowles. Doug Pederson was also hired during this cycle; he was the only new head coach who didn't coach the previous season.
Five new general manager hires were made during the 2022 cycle with four coming from other teams. Those four were: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (Vikings), Joe Schoen (Giants), Ryan Poles (Bears) and Dave Ziegler (Raiders).
None of these hires had held the sole title of GM before. Of these hires, only Poles had never worked in the same organization as the coach he hired. Schoen worked with Daboll in Buffalo, Ziegler worked with Josh McDaniels in New England and Adofo-Mensah worked with O’Connell for one year in San Francisco.
2022 saw the hiring of 13 new offensive coordinators. The internal promotions were Ken Dorsey (Bills), Ben Johnson (Lions), Adam Stenavich (Packers) and Pep Hamilton (Texans).
Eight of these hires had no previous experience as an OC at either the NFL or collegiate level. Those eight were Press Taylor (Jaguars), Dorsey (Bills), Stenavich (Packers), Justin Outten (Broncos), Wes Phillips (Vikings), Mick Lombardi (Raiders), Mike Kafka (Giants), Johnson (Lions).
However, three hires had OC experience at the collegiate level, but not in the NFL — Frank Smith (Butler), Luke Getsy (Mississippi State) and Liam Coen (Kentucky).
The other side of the ball saw similar turnover, as 12 teams hired new defensive coordinators. Two teams had co-defensive coordinators (Tampa Bay, New Orleans), one hire came from the collegiate ranks (Mike MacDonald to Baltimore from Michigan) and four hires had no DC experience at the NFL or collegiate level.
Those four were Clint Hurtt (Seahawks), Kris Richard (Saints), Ejiro Evero (Broncos) and Larry Foote (Buccaneers).
2021 Coaching/GM Carousel Breakdown
The 2021 cycle was a lot calmer than 2022, at least on the head coaching front. This cycle had seven new hires, with all of them being external. The first-time head coaches were Arthur Smith (Falcons), David Culley (Texans), Brandon Staley (Chargers), Robert Saleh (Jets) and Nick Sirianni (Eagles).
Urban Meyer (Jaguars) was scooped up after his Ohio State career and his time with Fox Sports.
The GM carousel also saw seven new candidates hop on the ride. This group also included five first-time GMs: Terry Fontenot (Falcons), Scott Fitterer (Panthers), George Paton (Broncos), Brad Holmes (Lions) and Nick Caserio (Texans).
Trent Baalke (Jaguars), who was the only internal hire, and Martin Mayhew (Commanders) were the only hires who previously were general managers.
The 2021 offensive coordinator market was a free-for-all, as 14 teams decided to make changes. Those 14 included seven internal hires. Those seven were Marcus Brady (Colts), Eric Studesville (Dolphins), George Godsey (Dolphins), Klint Kubiak (Vikings), Matt Canada (Steelers), Mike McDaniel (49ers) and Todd Downing (Titans).
Godsey and Studesville made up the only co-offensive coordinator position in the league that season.
On the other side of the ball, 13 defensive coordinators were hired, including six with no prior defensive coordinator experience. Those six were Sean Desai (Bears), Aaron Glenn (Lions), Renaldo Hill (Chargers), Jonathan Gannon (Eagles), DeMeco Ryans (49ers)and Shane Bowen (Titans).
Those 13 hires also featured three internal promotions — Desai, Ryans and Bowen.
