NFL Analysis
12/20/24
9 min read
Key Storylines to Watch Entering Final Weeks of 2024 NFL Regular Season
There are only three weeks remaining in the 2024 NFL regular season, so the postseason is coming into view. Between the chase for the playoffs, individual awards, positioning for the 2025 NFL Draft, and everyone trying to save or audition for their next job. The stakes remain high in every game.
We've identified six major storylines that will help define what we've learned from this year and how the rest of the NFL calendar will play out. The end of the regular season sets the stage for how franchises will operate in the future. Even with the playoff picture mostly decided in terms of which teams will make it, the seeding and final standings matter.
What's the top storyline in the next couple of weeks into the New Year? Here are six to choose from.
Key Storylines For Remaining NFL Regular Season
The Race for the No. 1 Overall Pick
On the heels of a very good quarterback class in the 2024 NFL Draft, the 2025 NFL Draft might benefit from the league's unquenchable thirst for the position. The problem is only a couple of quarterbacks appear worthy of being a top-10 pick, and unstable franchises are proven to be incapable of helping young signal callers reach their potential.
Next year's rookies should be nervous seeing the teams headlining the current 2025 NFL Draft order.
Las Vegas and the New York Giants are in pole position for the top two picks in 2025, with their strength of schedule proving to be a tiebreaker for their 2-12 records. Neither franchise has an incentive to win, as they each desperately need to find a franchise quarterback. But we've seen bad teams notch a victory in the final weeks of the year, knocking them out of contention for a premium pick.
New England, Jacksonville, and even Carolina aren't or shouldn't be in the quarterback market, but behind them is a deep array of needy franchises. Tennessee, Cleveland, New Orleans, and the New York Jets must all consider bottoming out or trading up for a quarterback. Tennessee and Cleveland have only three wins, so there's a pathway for them to move up from their current spot in the draft order.
With Shedeur Sanders, Cameron Ward, and Jalen Milroe looking like the most likely first-round picks, there's a risk for desperation to set in for teams that mistakenly win in the waning weeks.
Coaches Who Must Finish Strong
New Orleans, New York Jets, and Chicago have already fired their head coaches. We could see several other franchises follow suit in the coming weeks if the remaining schedule doesn't go as hoped. It'd be one thing for bad teams like the Giants or Jaguars to clean house, but what about fringe playoff teams?
The job status of Mike McDaniel in Miami, Zac Taylor in Cincinnati, Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland, and Mike McCarthy in Dallas are fascinating.
Expectations in Miami and Cleveland were quickly evaporated when injuries to Tua Tagovailoa and Deshaun Watson occurred, but neither franchise is a pinnacle of stability. I'd argue that McDaniel is dealing with an overrated and limited roster and, therefore, deserves more time to grow as a young coach.
Stefanski, a two-time Coach of the Year, is a phenomenal coach who has seen his roster ravaged by injuries, and he's been forced to play a broken quarterback who shouldn't be an NFL starter anymore.
The cases against Taylor and McCarthy are a little different. Cincinnati's offense does little to help Joe Burrow, and this scheme is as vanilla as any in the league. Taylor, coming from the Sean McVay tree, seems to add little in terms of value as a developer, schemer, and talent identifier.
McCarthy's best chance to win in Dallas has passed, and this year's mediocre returns aren't surprising. Dak Prescott's injury aside, the Cowboys failed to invest in the roster to help McCarthy. But will Jerry Jones cut McCarthy that slack or simply move on to his next coach?
Will There Be an AFC Collapse?
The top seven seeds in the AFC playoff picture have at least an 87 percent chance of making the postseason, per NFL.com's probability ratings. The Chargers and Broncos played Thursday night, opening the door slightly for the seventh playoff seed. Going chalk from here out means the AFC playoff race is close to over, with seeding only left to be determined.
However, because Denver and Los Angeles played each other, Indianapolis, Miami, and Cincinnati have a chance to stay alive in the race. Our above storyline question applies to this fact and can be influenced by what happens this week. If any of these teams in the race lose again, their season is all but over, barring a historic set of outcomes that sneaks them in.
All eyes will be on the AFC West to see if Jim Harbaugh's Chargers or Sean Payton's Broncos have a skid to end the season. If they can win one of their next two games, then the AFC should be decided. But if not, things can get exciting.
Who Wins the NFC's Top Seed?
The NFC's playoff race is much more interesting than the AFC's. Thirteen teams are still involved in the picture, and three of the bubble teams have at least an 11 percent chance of making it to the postseason. Chaos can quickly give Arizona, Atlanta, and Seattle a new lease on their playoff life.
We're most focused on the conference's top seed. Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota are fascinating teams with amazing coaching staffs and 12-2 records. We'll be looking at the tiebreaker rules if each team finishes with three more wins.
The new format, in which only the No. 1 seed gets a bye week, is a massive motivational tool. Minnesota and Detroit have already seen injuries alter their seasons, and the Eagles are a veteran crew that would love to get the chance to rest. The carrot of a bye week will keep these teams trying through Week 18.
Minnesota has the third-hardest remaining schedule, while Detroit (17th) and Philadelphia (24th) have much easier tasks ahead. Minnesota's upcoming battle with Detroit in Week 18 might decide it all.
The NFC West Race
Go grab a three-sided coin and flip it three times. The results of those flips are about as representative of how the NFC West will play out. While the Rams have the slight edge to win the division right now, a loss gives Seattle the chance to usurp them as the lead. Forgetting about Arizona would be unwise, though, as it can win out and have a solid chance of being the king of the West.
Singling out the Rams and Seahawks makes the most sense right now since Arizona needs so much help to reach the Wild Card Round. We're familiar with the Rams' veteran offense because McVay has crafted a dynamic unit with Matthew Stafford, but his young defense has been unreliable. Their defense has allowed 37, 14, 42, and six points in the last month.
With remaining games at the Jets before coming home to host Arizona and Seattle, the Rams have a massive advantage in head-to-head games in Los Angeles. Can the defense find consistency when it needs it most?
Seattle is more balanced, ranking in the middle of the league in scoring offense and defense. That makes it unremarkable, but a win against Minnesota this week would put pressure on the Rams to finish with three straight wins.
Will Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson Win MVP?
Josh Allen is a massive betting favorite for winning the MVP Award, so this race might be decided already. It's easier to see why when watching Allen be the engine for the Bills' offense again, noting that he's playing as well as he ever has. While his raw numbers have dipped in most key areas, his efficiency is through the roof, and he certainly passes the eye test.
Posting career-best interception rates (1.2%), sack rates (2.95%), and yards per attempt (8.0), the 28-year-old has entered the mastery phase of his career. The game moves slowly for Allen, and he's taken complete control of everything around him. That doesn't mean he's infallible; rather, Allen's mental acuity, decision-making, and impulse control have caught up to his incredible physical capabilities.
Jackson also deserves the MVP, as the two-time honoree is playing the best ball of his career. While Allen has blended the best parts of his game into one package, Jackson has simply elevated his output and become historically efficient and explosive as a passer. If Jackson isn't the best pure quarterback in the league right now, he's right behind Joe Burrow.
A comparison of the two's stats shows Jackson is significantly more impressive. That's not the entire way we decide who is the MVP, but the discrepancy should make voters carefully consider whether Jackson's historical pace is more significant than Allen's own growth.