NFL Analysis
10/22/24
6 min read
Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry Are NFL's Best Two-Headed Monster
The Baltimore Ravens have the scariest two-headed monster in the league with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
That dynamic duo put on a dominant display in a 41-31 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jackson completed 17-of-22 passes for 281 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for another 52 yards. Meanwhile, Henry ran for 169 yards on just 15 carries, including this 81-yard run.
Derrick Henry might be immortal pic.twitter.com/rhPjoFVwpO
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) October 22, 2024
There isn't an offense in the NFL that's doing what the Ravens are doing right now. They're first in total offense by a wide margin with 461.4 total yards per game and tied for first in points with 31.1 points per game.
The advanced metrics are just as confident in the Ravens' offense. FTN Fantasy has the Ravens as the No. 1 offense by DVOA and the top-ranked passing and rushing team in the league. According to TruMedia, they also lead the league in EPA per play on both dropbacks and designed runs.
Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP, but he hasn't even seen this kind of balanced offensive attack during his time with the Ravens. Henry's arrival has completely unlocked the offense, which should have the rest of the AFC working overtime to figure out how to slow them down.
It's Just Another Lamar MVP Campaign
Jackson is playing like someone who could become the sixth player in NFL history to win back-to-back MVP awards.
Monday night's dominant performance was one of the best passing nights of his career. He took great care of the football, picked apart Tampa Bay's coverage, and took off with his legs when the pressure got him. According to RBSDM, he generated 27.9 total EPA as a passer and a staggering 0.96 EPA per dropback.
For reference, the Ravens have generated 0.33 EPA per dropback this season, and that's the best rate in the NFL. TruMedia credited Jackson with 0.99 EPA per dropback, which nearly doubled the second-closest quarterback in Week 7.
It's not like Jackson was dinking and dunking on Monday night, either. Some of his biggest plays came on deep shots down the field.
There isn't another quarterback in football doing what Jackson is doing right now. According to NFELO, Jackson leads the league with 91 total EPA, 1.9 total win probability added, and a staggering 54.3 percent success rate.
For a quarterback who wasn't once considered a potential wide receiver prospect coming out of Louisville, Jackson has completely shattered the perception of what a dual-threat quarterback should look like. In fact, he's playing better as a pure passer than anyone else in the league.
Not only is Jackson leading the NFL in EPA per dropback, but he's also leading the league in adjusted net yards per attempt by a wide margin.
Jackson has dominated at pushing the ball down the field this season. According to Pro Football Focus, he's completed 63.9 percent of his passes on throws 10 or more yards downfield for 967 yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He's averaging 13.4 yards per pass attempt with nine "big-time throws" and just one turnover-worthy play.
What makes Jackson more frustrating to play against is the constant threat of his scrambling and rushing ability. He has already run for 455 yards and two touchdowns this season, averaging 6.2 yards per carry.
The Dallas Cowboys found out the hard way how hard it can be to stop Jackson. Just look at how offensive coordinator Todd Monken forced Micah Parsons to defend as a conflict defender, using his aggressiveness against him to open the way for some explosive rushes from Jackson.
Micah Parsons did not look like he was having a good time defending Lamar Jackson runs pic.twitter.com/Q1ZIJyngfO
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) September 23, 2024
At this rate, Jackson is on pace for easily the best season of his career, and that's saying a lot, given his accolades. That doesn't happen without a dominant running back in Henry and a talented offensive coordinator in Monken.
King Henry Might Be Immortal
At 30 years old with more than 2,100 career carries, Henry is doing things that no running back with his workload has ever done. While his earlier pace this season didn't seem sustainable, Henry keeps putting up video game numbers in his ninth NFL season.
Henry is first in the NFL in carries (134) and rushing yards (873) while being tied for first with eight rushing touchdowns. According to PFF, he's also first in the NFL with 12 breakaway runs (carries of 15-plus yards) and first with 464 breakaway yards, more than 150 yards ahead of Saquon Barkley in second place.
It's not just Henry's dominance but also his stamina. His play style is notorious for wearing opposing defenses down, allowing him to dominate in the fourth quarter. According to TruMedia, he leads the NFL with 292 rushing yards in the fourth quarter and overtime. Najee Harris is in second place with 187 yards.
Along with size and strength, Henry generates so many explosive plays because of his surprising agility and excellent vision for finding the best lane to break free.
BOOT TO ASS (Linderbaum keeping Osa turned really sets this play off, and Derrick Henry, lol) pic.twitter.com/TuUq3c1R7D
— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) September 23, 2024
Henry's dominance in the running game also opens up things for Jackson in the passing game. According to PFF, Jackson has a 125.5 passer rating on play-action passes, completing 73.4 percent of those passes for 9.9 yards per attempt, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Running backs have historically not sustained their success later in their careers, especially past 2,000 career carries. Henry somehow seems to be getting even stronger, and he could continue to play at this level for at least a couple more seasons.
Are the Ravens Super Bowl Contenders?
With such a dominant offense, the Ravens will have a real shot at making a deep playoff run. However, there are still questions about their defense that need to be answered.
The Ravens allow the sixth-most points in the league, 25.7 points per game. They're also the 13th-best defense by DVOA, hampered mostly by a pass defense that ranks 18th.
Baltimore's secondary hasn't had the same juice as previous seasons. Even with Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey, there are a few defensive backs who are getting picked on in coverage.
Cornerback Brandon Stephens is having a particularly tough season. He's been targeted 41 times, allowing 27 catches for 361 yards, three touchdowns, and a 118.0 passer rating. Safety Ar'Darius Washington has also had a tough year, allowing two touchdowns and a 123.6 passer rating when targeted.
The loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald was a big one, and new defensive coordinator Zach Orr is in his first-ever year running a defense. The good news is that the Ravens still have time to figure out their defensive identity while Orr gets his feet under him as a coordinator.
However, if things don't start improving on that side of the ball, it could be what holds the Ravens back as a Super Bowl contender once the playoffs begin.
