Expert Analysis
12/26/23
8 min read
Lamar Jackson Has Deservedly Become 2023 NFL MVP Favorite
The San Francisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens game on Christmas Day was always going to give us our MVP frontrunner. There was just no way of knowing that Brock Purdy would throw four interceptions and gift wrap the award to Lamar Jackson.
After two sweet throws to George Kittle on the opening drive, Purdy threw an interception to Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton in the red zone. Purdy threw another two drives later when a blitzing cornerback got their hands up to put the ball in the air. On the very next drive, Purdy dug into his Iowa State bag and whirled around behind the line of scrimmage before heaving up a prayer, also picked by Hamilton.
The Ravens' reign of turnover terror finally ended early in the third quarter when LB Patrick Queen caught an errant ball intended for Christian McCaffrey. It was the fourth and final interception of the night, setting up for a Ravens touchdown that put the game out of reach.
Baltimore eventually salted the game away to take home the 33-19 win and sole possession of the NFL's best record.
Purdy's implosion will raise some questions about the 49ers offense. Can another defense do this to Purdy? Does one nuclear meltdown wash away a season's worth of eye-popping production? What happens if this game sets Purdy off on a spiral that turns him back into Iowa State Purdy, who fell to the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft?
We won't know the answer to most of those questions until they play out. Purdy will get his chance to shake things off. Truthfully, a couple of those interceptions weren't his fault anyway. Opposing defenses will also get their shot to dig into this Ravens film to see what they can replicate from it with their own talent. (Short answer: send pressure.)
What we do know is that Purdy's collapse re-opens the door for the MVP conversation. That would be true regardless of how the MVP candidate quarterback on the other side played.
Thankfully Jackson met the moment.
Jackson's MVP Performance
When the Ravens had the ball, Jackson was the best player on the field. By a mile. Jackson played like an MVP.
In a lot of ways, this game captured the Jackson MVP argument neatly.
Jackson didn't dominate in the box score. He played a good, clean game by the numbers, but not an overwhelming one. Jackson completed 23-of-35 passes for 252 yards (7.2 per attempt) and two passing touchdowns. He tacked on another 46 yards with his legs on six carries.
Watching Jackson play is a different story. You can feel his presence. Jackson is a singular force that makes the offense work; an offense missing its best and most tenured skill player in Mark Andrews. The passing game works because Jackson wills it to work with his pocket presence and unique vision. The run game works because of the gravity Jackson commands.
All of that was on display in this game. Jackson made so many plays in this game that felt like a fever dream in the moment.
Air Lamar 🎯
— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2023
📺: #BALvsSF on ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pkwa8SXokx pic.twitter.com/t7NucRi2D3
Whether it was a sidearm whip to Isaiah Likely on 1st-and-20 before the half, a 30-yard scramble to get the Ravens back into field goal position after a penalty, or bailing from the pocket to draw defenders out of throwing windows. Time and time again, Jackson had an answer for what the 49ers threw at him.
Jackson just kept finding ways to do the impossible and give the Ravens chances. So long as he had the ball in his hands, the Ravens were in a good spot to move the ball and put points on the board.
That juxtaposition between stats and the eye test captures Jackson's season at large. By typical MVP standards, he doesn't make the cut from a numbers perspective.
Not Your Typical MVP
Jackson ranks 15th in EPA per dropback through 15 games. There are some obviously great quarterbacks ahead of him, but there's also Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love. Will Levis and Gardner Minshew are only a couple of spots behind him.
The league leader in EPA per dropback has earned the MVP award in each of the past three seasons, yet Jackson is firmly a middle-of-the-pack quarterback by that standard.
QBR is more favorable, but not by a lot. Jackson only ranked ninth in QBR (60.8) heading into Week 15. The Christmas win against the 49ers might raise his number by a smidgen, especially with the rushing success, but he will still be nowhere near the top three QBs who all have a QBR over 70.
In all likelihood, even with a boost, Jackson will still be behind guys like Kirk Cousins and Justin Herbert, neither of whom ever got MVP consideration.
Yet, when you watch the Ravens offense, you can't help but feel like Jackson is a singular force moving everything along. Jackson constantly gets the offense out of jams it has no business getting out of. He solves every single problem the offense has, big or small, because of his unique tools and the way he's honed them.
Sometimes that's a subtle move in the pocket to avoid a rusher. Jackson's pocket presence this year is even better than it's ever been.
Other times, it's a series of dodges and pirouettes that lead to a heroic jump ball to Isaiah Likely the way he did against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jackson has been as willing as ever to let his guys go make a play when it's there to be made.
Worst comes to worst, Jackson can always become a runner himself. Baltimore's receiving corps, especially without Andrews, isn't a reliable group of separators. Jackson has grown so much in his ability to keep his eyes down the field while he's scrambling, but he still knows when it's time to call his own number.
The way Jackson glides around the field as a runner is unlike any other. Jackson doesn't hit the gas the way he once did, but he's still as effective a runner as ever, just in a different way. He weaves and maneuvers with a grace you'll only ever see from figure skaters, but he's doing it with cleats on grass in between hordes of 250-pound men trying to take his head off.
Jackson is 1-of-1 when it comes to movement skills and that special skill touches every single part of his game, making all of it better.
Tell ‘em, Ro❗️ pic.twitter.com/lXV6GtbduQ
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 26, 2023
Baltimore Ravens linebacker Roquan Smith gave his thoughts on Lamar Jackson's MVP candidacy after the game.
Wouldn't Be The First Time
Using the eye test and the idea of being a unique force at the position when the numbers don't match at all feels like a flimsy case, but it's not an unprecedented one. Cam Newton won the MVP in 2015 with an eerily similar case.
Back in 2015, Newton didn't meet the MVP criteria if you let the numbers do all the talking. While Carson Palmer and Russell Wilson were putting up video game numbers, Newton ranked ninth in EPA per dropback and 11th in QBR. Ryan Fitzpatrick was one spot ahead of Newton by QBR that season; Tyrod Taylor was three spots ahead.
Newton just wasn't in that "blow everyone else out of the water" MVP production realm we are used to.
But like Jackson right now, you felt Newton's presence.
Newton was a completely unparalleled threat on the ground, as a designed runner and a scrambler. He was the best short-yardage and red zone weapon in the league. That alone gave him a unique case for the award.
More impressive, Newton made the Panthers' passing game work with almost no pass-catching help to speak of. Greg Olsen was a Pro Bowl-caliber tight end, but his best wide receiver was Ted Ginn Jr, a player everyone believed to be a bust by that point in his career.
The rest of the group was made up of Devin Funchess, Corey "Philly" Brown and 33-year-old Jerricho Cotchery, who never played another down of NFL football after that season.
So don't get too bogged down by Jackson not dominating in all the advanced stats. Especially don't do that in a season where there are no other clear MVP frontrunners to begin with.
Let Jackson's playmaking and unique play style wash over you. Give Jackson his props for further honing an already effective skill set as a pocket passer. Embrace the value aspect of the Most Valuable Player and recognize that Jackson is one of the small handful of quarterbacks who makes everyone else around them infinitely better.
Jackson still has to finish strong over the next two weeks to get the hay in the barn, but this should be his award to lose at this point.
