Analysis
1/8/23
6 min read
Lions vs. Packers DFS Sunday Night Showdown
Sunday night's game features what could be a "win and in" game for the Packers and the Lions. No matter what, if the Packers win they are heading to the postseason while riding a five-game winning streak. The Lions could clinch a post-season berth if the Seahawks don’t handle their business against the Rams.
The Lions would still love to finish this season above .500 and eliminate a divisional rival, so even if Seattle wins, don’t anticipate this group not playing hard.
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Vegas Line: Packers -5
Over Under: 49
Notable Injuries
Lions
IR: OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, OG Bobby Price, DE Julian Okwara, DE Charles Harris, S Tracy Walker
OUT: N/A
QUESTIONABLE: DT Michael Brockers, CB Jeff Okudah, OG Frank Ragnow, SS DeShon Elliott
Packers
IR: DT Rashan Gary, DE Dean Lowry, CB Eric Stokes, OL Jake Hanson
OUT: N/A
QUESTIONABLE: TE Josiah Deguara
Data to Know Provided by Sports Info Solutions
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Lions Pass Offense vs. Packers
- Green Bay played a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 4 coverage against the Lions in their first matchup in Week 9
- Jared Goff averages 7.6 yards per attempt, a 64.9% completion percentage and a 29-7 touchdown to interception ratio
- Against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Goff averages 8.5 yards per attempt with a 7-4 touchdown to interception ratio
- Goff threw for 137 yards in their first matchup and had a 7.7% pass-touchdown rate
- The Lions' main route runners in Week 9 were Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, Tom Kennedy and Brock Wright
- Kennedy is no longer active, while Raymond and Wright have been running less than 40% of the routes in recent weeks
- Since the T.J. Hockenson trade, St. Brown ranks in the top 10 in target share against Cover 3 and Cover 4
- DJ Chark averages 25.6 yards per reception against these coverages
- Jameson Williams only has 12 routes against these coverages and has two targets that could have been touchdowns
- D’Andre Swift gets targeted on 33.3% of his routes against these coverages and averages 2.02 yards per route
- The Packers rush five or more players at a high rate
- Goff averages 8.5 yards per attempt and has a 10-4 touchdown to interception ratio against five or more pass rushers
- The big gains for wide receivers come on crossers, corners, posts and vertical routes against the Packers
- Chark is the WR who should benefit from those routes as 69% of his route tree are the routes that have hurt the Packers the most
- Williams has only run 25 routes this season, but 17 of them are the ones listed above
Lions Rush Offense vs. Packers
- I expect running backs Jamaal Williams and Swift to work in a 50-50 split where Williams will see more work if they are winning and Swift to see more work in a negative game script
- The Packers' run defense ranks in the bottom 10 of yards per carry, and four running backs have run for more than 100 yards
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Packers Pass Offense vs. Lions
- Detroit mixed up coverages against the Packers, playing five different coverages at a more than 10% rate
- Aaron Rodgers has yet to throw for more than 300 yards passing this season
- On the season, Rodgers averages 6.8 yards per attempt, a 64.7% completion percentage and has a 25-11 touchdown to interception ratio
- The Lions are mostly a man-defensive scheme and have been running it at a high rate in recent weeks
- Rodgers is slightly better against man coverage than zone and averages 7.1 yards per attempt, but his completion percentage drops to 51.6%
- Against man coverage, Christian Watson is the go-to for Rodgers; he has the team's highest targets per route and yards per route. Allen Lazard is second on the team in targets per route and yards per route. Romeo Doubs is third in targets per route but averages fewer yards per route than Randall Cobb
- The Lions have struggled against slot receivers the entire season
- There have been three Packers wide receivers to find production from the slot in the last three weeks: Lazard, Doubs and Watson
- Cobb has played in the slot but has not been targeted as frequently as those players
- Lazard runs the routes from the slot that Detroit struggles to stop most often
Packers Rush Offense vs. Lions
- Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will see plenty of work in this game, and the Panthers showed them the blueprint when they beat the Lions by rushing for more than 300 yards
- The Trenches Tool gives the Packers a significant advantage in the run game, and if they get a lead, I expect them to wear down the front of the Lions
- Jones has scored seven touchdowns in the last two games at Lambeau Field against the Lions
- Dillon hasn’t found the end zone against the Lions in his career
- Jones is the better running back in the scheme that beats the Lions the most, but if they have a lead late in the fourth, they will utilize Dillon as the bruiser
Overall Thoughts
Even with the slow pace of the Packers, I expect this game to have a lot of points because I don’t believe these defenses can stop these offenses. Watson and Lazard will be the two Packers wide receivers to carry this offense, and I lean toward Doubs over Cobb, even with the disparity in routes.
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has to dial up passes down the field to let St. Brown work the underneath area; that is where Chark and Williams will need to make plays. The run games of these teams will benefit from long plays not quite resulting in touchdowns, setting up the team inside of the red zone. With the Packers being the team I expect to win, Jones and Dillon are the more appealing running backs.
Multiplier Pool
- RB Aaron Jones
- WR Christian Watson
- WR Allen Lazard
- WR D.J. Chark
- WR Jameson Williams
FLEX Pool
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
- QB Aaron Rodgers
- QB Jared Goff
- RB D’Andre Swift
- RB AJ Dillon
- WR Romeo Doubs
- K Mason Crosby
- K Michael Badgley
- DST Packers
WATCH: Betting Lions vs. Packers
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