Analysis

8/11/23

6 min read

Los Angeles Chargers 2023 Fantasy Football Team Preview

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As we inch closer to opening day of the NFL season, we want to prepare you for your fantasy football drafts. That process begins with our team previews, where we’ll break down each team’s offense while providing players we’re targeting and, in some cases, avoiding.

>> READ: Chargers Season Preview from Marty Mornhinweg

Chargers Fantasy Team Preview

Head Coach: Brandon Staley (third season)

Offensive Coordinator: Kellen Moore (first season)

Key Offensive Additions:

  • None

Key Offensive Departures:

Key Offensive Rookies:

Points Per Game: 23.0 (13th)

Passing Yards: 269.9 (third)

Rushing Yards: 89.6 (30th)

Vacated Targets: 105 (23rd)

Pass: 68 percent Run: 32 percent

Pace: Eighth

OL Rank: 10th

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert had a disappointing 2022, finishing 15th in fantasy points per game with 17.1. Whenever a star player has a down year, it’s essential to look into why. 

First, Herbert played through a rib cartilage injury suffered early in the year. In the offseason, he had surgery on a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. 

Star LT Rashawn Slater also suffered a significant injury early in the year, costing him the rest of the season. Slater is one of the best offensive tackles in the league and the foundation of the Chargers’ quality offensive line. 

Mike Williams missed four games, and Keenan Allen missed seven. Needless to say, injuries had a significant impact on Herbert’s production.

Herbert is positioned for significant positive regression in passing touchdowns and yards. Herbert is an MVP contender in a new, more aggressive offense. He’s on the short list of quarterbacks with a real shot of leading the league in yards passing. Given Joe Burrow’s injury uncertainty, Herbert is our QB5 in fantasy drafts.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler is the only running back to average more than 21 fantasy points per game each of the past two seasons. While he’s most known for his pass-catching, his 38 touchdowns in the past two seasons is 12 more than any other running back. 

Last season, injuries to Allen and Williams helped Ekeler lead the team with 127 targets and 107 receptions. He’s been locked into about 200 carries per season, so his fantasy value spikes will come from receptions and touchdowns.

The Chargers still don’t have a threatening RB2, so Ekeler currently projects once again to receive a good chunk of the goal-line work. The Chargers drafted WR Quentin Johnston in Round 1 this year, putting a damper on Ekeler’s chances to repeat his receiving workload from last season. 

Ekeler should still be a fantasy RB1, but it’s tough to see him finishing in the top three for fantasy again. He’s a high-floor option due to pass-catching and the Chargers’ high-scoring offense, but the ceiling is lower for him in 2023.

Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller are the two candidates to ease Ekeler’s rushing workload. Kelley had this role last season, so we should think of him as the current favorite to repeat. 

Spiller was taken in Round 4 of the 2022 NFL Draft, and he has an all-purpose skill set but struggled with injuries last season. He has a chance to fight for the backup role, and there’s a chance he could inherit most of the goal-line work. 

New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore comes from Dallas, where the Cowboys often deployed a committee approach in the backfield.

Most likely, Kelley or Spiller is a pure handcuff, as neither is as talented as Tony Pollard was in Dallas. This situation will be monitored in the next few weeks. Whoever emerges as the team’s RB2 would have significant upside if Ekeler went down with an injury.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Moore is expected to bring a more dynamic passing game, leading to a resurgence for Allen and Williams as 1,000-yard receivers. Herbert's arm talent and 5,000-yard passing capability make the two prime targets.

Last season, Allen showed he's still elite. He averaged 7.5 receptions for 84.4 yards and 0.5 touchdown per game during weeks 10-17. Moore's past usage of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb suggests a versatile role for Allen.

Williams will still see most of the deep targets. His expanded slot role in training camp offers a higher floor, which should appeal to fantasy managers, given his draft position.

The third receiver spot battle is between Johnston and Josh Palmer, who have radically different skill sets. Palmer is more refined as a route runner and should see more snaps because of his diverse route tree. 

Johnston will be limited to a deep role early and expand as the season progresses. He is a fine player for your bench, but Jordan Vanek wouldn’t expect a big season without an injury to another receiving option.

At tight end, Gerald Everett is likely the top option. With a talented quarterback, a high-volume offense and Moore’s play-calling, Everett is a late-round target for fantasy managers. Moore’s offense allows tight ends to produce fantasy points and sets them up in the red zone.

In summary, the Chargers’ pass-heavy approach makes their pass-catchers attractive for fantasy football. Vanek expects a reduction in Ekeler’s passing game volume due to differences in Moore's historical passing distribution compared with former play caller Joe Lombardi's. 

Dynasty Buy

Ian Miller: Buy Johnston (WR21)

It’s not that often a strong profile meets a strong situation, but that’s what happened with Johnston. He’s an ‘elite’ first-round prospect joining a high-volume, Herbert-led offense. We could look back and laugh at his WR21 price tag as soon as a year from now. 

Chargers We’re Targeting, Avoiding in Fantasy Football

Josh Larky: Target Herbert, Allen, Johnston.

Ryan Reynolds: Target Herbert, Everett.

Jordan Vanek: Target Allen, Williams, Everett.

Follow our Team on Twitter

Josh Larky: @JLarkyTweets

Ryan Reynolds: @RyanReynoldsNFL  

Jordan Vanek: @JordanVanekDFS   

Ian Miller: @Dynasty_IM   

Other Previews

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS 

NFC North: GB | CHI | MIN | DET 

NFC South: NO | ATL | CAR | TB 

NFC West: SF | LAR | SEA | ARI

AFC East: BUF | NE | MIA | NYJ 

AFC North: CIN | CLE | BAL | PIT 

AFC South: HOU | IND | JAX | TEN 

AFC West: KC | DEN | LV

Our data is provided by Sports Info Solutions, and our vacated targets figure is provided by Tru Media. 

Tags: Austin Ekeler, Derius Davis, Gerald Everett See More

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

Jordan Vanek

Jordan has been playing DFS since 2016 and started writing content at the end of 2020. While playing DFS, he has managed multiple top 10 finishes in NFL, college football, baseball, basketball and NASCAR.

Ian Miller

Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.

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