NFL Analysis
12/8/24
6 min read
Los Angeles Rams Are Dark Horse No NFC Team Wants to Face in Playoffs
In a completely chaotic NFC West race, the Los Angeles Rams have suddenly become a team that no one in the conference wants to face once the playoffs come around.
The Rams pulled off an upset win against the Buffalo Bills in a 44-42 shootout despite Josh Allen becoming the first player in NFL history to record three passing and three rushing touchdowns in the same game. The Bills superstar led a spirited comeback, but Sean McVay's team held on to improve to 7-6.
Dominant seasons from teams like the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers mean that the Rams have to fight for the seventh seed in the NFC. Before Sunday, they had just a 26 percent chance at making the playoffs, but winning against Buffalo gives them a fighting chance.
With the Rams' current play and the team finally getting healthy, the rest of the NFC is hoping they don't sneak their way into the postseason.
Sean McVay Still Has It
Things haven't always looked pretty for the Rams offense this season. However, with Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and key offensive linemen finally healthy, Sean McVay and his offense are starting to fire on all cylinders.
Matthew Stafford outlasted Allen in the best quarterback duel of the year. That's saying a lot, given some of the performances we've seen this year, but the two quarterbacks combined for 60.3 total EPA in this game, according to RBSDM.
Allen may have had a higher total EPA, but Stafford was more efficient, putting up an absurd 0.78 EPA per play.
Stafford is 36 years old, but it doesn't look like it this year. He's immensely confident throwing the football to his top targets, Kupp and Nacua, and his arm talent continues to stand out despite his age.
What's just as impressive as his arm strength is Stafford's ability to still move in the pocket. While the Atlanta Falcons have had to limit Kirk Cousins in the pocket, the Rams still feel comfortable with Stafford taking deep dropbacks to let plays develop.
Both Stafford's arm and his footwork were on display in Sunday's win.
Stafford had 3 of them today! https://t.co/GIDQHF799i pic.twitter.com/tTzzT0DtId
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 9, 2024
It's not just Stafford's arm that's keeping the Rams in games, however. They have a balanced offensive attack thanks to the ascension of Kyren Williams, who has quickly established himself as a top running back in the last couple of seasons. While he only averaged 3.0 yards per carry on Sunday, Williams found the end zone twice.
Heading into this week, the Rams were a top-12 offense in passing and rushing DVOA, according to FTN Fantasy. They were determined to keep establishing it this week, running for 137 yards and three scores on 42 rushing attempts.
Even when it's not efficient, the Rams can at least generate first downs and scores when it matters on the ground. That kind of emphasis on the run game opens things up for Stafford and the play-action passing game. According to Pro Football Focus, he's posting a 119.8 passer rating on play-action passes, throwing eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Teams who can pass and run the ball effectively become even more dangerous in the playoffs, which is a big reason why the Rams could create problems if they can sneak into the postseason.
An Exciting Young Defense
The Rams have one of the youngest defenses in the league at multiple positions, and that side of the ball is starting to come together at the right time.
General manager Les Snead hit some home runs in the 2024 NFL Draft, starting with first-round EDGE Jared Verse. He's racked up 4.5 sacks and two forced fumbles as a rookie and is already one of the best players in the league at pressuring quarterbacks. Per PFF, he's third in the NFL among EDGEs, generating 58 pressures through 13 games.
Verse leads the youngest defensive line in the league, which also features his Florida State teammate and fellow rookie Braden Fiske, who has six sacks and two forced fumbles. Second-year defenders Kobie Turner and Byron Young round out the Rams' top-tier pass rush, combining for 77 pressures in 13 games.
That young defensive front will keep developing, but the Rams also found a gem in the draft in safety Kamren Kinchens. The exciting Miami Hurricanes safety fell to the 99th pick in this past year's draft, but the Rams have quickly helped turn him into one of their top defensive playmakers.
The 22-year-old has already recorded three pass breakups and three interceptions, including a 103-yard INT returned for a touchdown.
ONE! HUNDRED! AND! THREE! YARDS TO THE HOUSE!
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 4, 2024
📺: @NFLonFOX | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/EYAuaOPI4D
It's not always pretty with this unit, but that's to be expected for such a young defense. However, when these first- and second-year players are playing their best football, it can be awfully hard for opponents to score on them.
Can The Rams Make the Playoffs?
It won't be easy, but there's a path to the postseason now for the Rams.
Los Angeles has the 22nd-hardest remaining strength of schedule. Of its four remaining games, only one is against an opponent over .500, facing off against its divisional rival and the current projected winner in the NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks.
The remaining three games are against the Cardinals, Jets, and 49ers. While none of these opponents are above .500, it's the fight between the two divisional opponents that could make things dicey in the wild-card hunt. The 49ers and Cardinals are just a game behind the Rams in the standings, so a loss to either or both of them would potentially move either team ahead of them in both the NFC West and wild card standings.
The Rams went 1-1 against those two teams earlier this season, back when injuries decimated them. Now, they're getting healthy at the right time, with both sides of the football finding their identity just in time for a late playoff push.
There are many factors that will be in play, but with the way they've looked in recent weeks, the Rams should be taken seriously as a potential playoff contender.
