Betting
9/24/22
5 min read
Matchups Week 3: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Washington Commanders (1-1)
Opening Line: Commanders +4.
Game Total: 50.5.
Team Totals: Commanders (23.25), Eagles (27.25).
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Commanders +4.
- This line has moved all the way up to Commanders +6.5 as of Thursday evening.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Commanders +6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Commanders +6.5.
- This total opened at 50.5 points.
- This total has moved all the way down to 47.5 points as of Thursday evening.
Notable Injuries
Commanders: Edge James Smith-Williams (Questionable).
Eagles: WR Quez Watkins (Questionable), Edge Haason Reddick (Questionable).
The Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense
After witnessing the Lions front four unexpectedly wreak havoc throughout the first half against Washington last week, I’m giving the Eagles front a moderate edge on the road here.
Washington has smoked two below-average pass defenses to start the season, but their wide receiver trio of Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson is good enough to give them an advantage against certain teams. That isn’t the case against the Eagles vastly improved secondary.
Notes and Observations
- The Commanders are 1-1 against the spread this season.
- The Commanders are 2-0 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Carson Wentz is second in the league in passing yards.
- Washington running backs have been dangerous in the passing game, as Antonio Gibson is fourth among running backs in receiving yards while teammate J.D. McKissic is seventh.
- The Eagles have been solid against pass-catching running backs, allowing the 14th fewest yards receiving to the position.
- Philadelphia has allowed the ninth fewest receiving yards on the 15th fewest receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Curtis Samuel has led Washington’s wide receiver group in both production and role size/ value.
- The Eagles have allowed the 12th most receiving yards on the ninth most receptions to tight ends this season.
The Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense
Even with Chase Young sidelined, Washington still has a capable front four. On the other side of things, the Eagles have a top-five offensive line. With the Eagles playing on the road against a familiar divisional opponent, we should give the Eagles a slight edge in this trench matchup.
Notes and Observations
- The Eagles are 1-1 against the spread this season.
- The Eagles are 1-1 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Jalen Hurts is seventh in the league in passing yards while leading all quarterbacks in rushing yards with 147.
- Miles Sanders is currently seventh among running backs in rushing yards.
- Washington is allowing the sixth most rushing yards to running backs.
- A.J. Brown is seeing premium usage as he’s second in the league in target share (35%) and fifth in team air yards share (47.5%) with an outstanding 3.34 yards per route run.
- Washington has surrendered the eighth-most receiving yards on the fifth-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Dallas Goedert is third among tight ends in receiving yards, though his usage is more middle-of-the-pack among tight ends with a 16.7% target share (13th) and a 12.8% team air yards share (15th).
- Washington has allowed the 17th most receiving yards on the 17th most receptions to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Commanders vs. Eagles
A bet on the Commanders is a bet on Carson Wentz’s offense continuing to operate at a high level against a much more difficult opponent. The Eagles have a better front four than Detroit does, and the Commanders struggled against the Lions in pass protection last week. Jalen Hurts has played very well through the first two weeks, which means that a bet on Washington can be a bet on Hurts regressing. A bet on Washington is also a bet on a significant home underdog that’s facing a divisional rival.
A bet on the Eagles is a bet on one of the best, most well-rounded rosters in the league. The Eagles have a trench edge against Washington on both sides of the ball. Their improved secondary is well positioned to mitigate Washington’s ascending group of pass catchers. Philadelphia’s own pass catchers represent a potential edge against a Washington secondary that was just shredded by Jared Goff’s Lions. Quarterback volatility, for both teams, is the X-factor in this contest. If Jalen Hurts plays as well as he has in each of the first two games, it’s going to be tough for anyone to beat the Eagles.
Awards Market Ramifications: Jalen Hurts is an MVP candidate, and Darius Slay is a Defensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Eagles in my winner pools this week. I expect that I will have them ranked above Minnesota in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: At first glance, six-and-a-half points seem like a lot here, but ultimately I don’t want to bet on Carson Wentz facing one of the best rosters in the league. I also already recognize that the Washington Commanders are the team that I understand the least this season. Usually, it’s the Browns, but this year the Commanders get that honor.
Survivor: In a difficult survivor week the Eagles aren’t an automatic cross-off here, but I’d still prefer to avoid them now so that they are available in a better spot down the road.
WATCH MORE: It Was the Jalen Hurts Show as the Eagles Beat the Vikings
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