Betting
10/14/22
9 min read
Matchups Week 6: Bills vs. Chiefs
Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
Opening Spread: Chiefs +2
Opening Game Total: 53.5
Team Totals: Chiefs (25.75), Bills (27.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chiefs +2.
- This line has moved slightly up to Chiefs +2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chiefs +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chiefs +2.5.
- This total opened at 53.5 points.
- This total remains at 53.5 points as of Wednesday afternoon.
Notable Injuries
Chiefs: IR: CB Trent McDuffie; Questionable: Edge Frank Clark, CB Rashard Fenton, CB Chris Lammons
Bills: IR: WR Jamison Crowder, S Micah Hyde; Out: CB Tre’Davious White; Questionable: TE Dawson Knox, C Mitch Morse, DT DaQuan Jones, DT Jordan Phillips, LB Tremaine Edmunds, CB Kalir Elam, CB Christian Benford, S Jordan Poyer
The Chiefs Offense vs. the Bills Defense
This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup between a top-five caliber Chiefs' offensive line and a top-five caliber Bills' pass rush. I’m treating this as a relative draw from a macro sense, where the Bills' edge rush could give both Chiefs offensive tackles some issues.
Betting Notes
- The Chiefs are 2-3 against the spread this season.
- The Chiefs are 3-2 on overs this season.
- Patrick Mahomes is 36-30-2 against the spread in his career.
- Patrick Mahomes is 37-30-1 on overs in his career.
- Andy Reid is 192-159-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Andy Reid is 176-171-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
Chiefs Offense
- The Chiefs are scoring 31.8 points per game, the most in the league.
- Kansas City is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and 18th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Patrick Mahomes has the fourth-most yards passing, he’s 15th in yards per attempt and 26th in air yards per attempt.
- Mahomes has taken the fourth-most hurries, the fifth-most pressures, and the 19th-most sacks this season.
- Among running backs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is 29th in yards rushing and eighth in yards receiving.
- Jerick McKinnon ran slightly more routes last week than Edwards-Helaire.
- Travis Kelce is 16th in the league in yards receiving (347), sixth in receptions (33), and he now leads the league in receiving touchdowns (seven).
- Kelce has a 23.2% target share and a 23.1% air yards share.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (19.3% target share, 21.3% air yards share) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (17.1% target share, 24.7% air yards share) are the other regular participants in the Chiefs' passing attack.
- Speedster Mecole Hardman is next in line, while rookie Skyy Moore’s minimal role is slowly growing.
- Per TruMedia, JuJu Smith-Schuster has seen 122 snaps on the perimeter and 108 in the slot.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has seen 156 snaps on the perimeter and 88 in the slot.
- Mecole Hardman has seen 88 snaps on the perimeter and 78 in the slot.
- Travis Kelce has played 87 snaps as an in-line tight end, 75 on the perimeter, and 95 in the slot.
Bills Defense
- The Bills have allowed 12.2 points per game, which is tied for the best in the league.
- Buffalo is fourth in net yards passing allowed per game and second in yards rushing allowed per game.
- Buffalo is sixth in the league in sacks with 16 and tied for the most interceptions with eight.
- Per The Edge, the Bills have allowed the fewest yards rushing and the 23rd-most yards receiving to running backs.
- Buffalo has given up the 22nd-most yards receiving on the 15th-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Buffalo has given up the eighth-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers this year.
- The Bills have allowed the 28th-most yards receiving on the 26th-most receptions to tight ends this year.
The Bills Offense vs. the Chiefs Defense
The Bills are a solid middle-of-the-pack offensive line, while the Chiefs are a fringe top-10 front. When factoring in Josh Allen’s play-extending abilities, I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw from a macro sense. Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones is a problematic matchup for anyone.
Betting Notes
- The Bills are 3-2 against the spread this season.
- The Bills are 1-4 on overs this season.
- Josh Allen is 38-23-4 against the spread in his career.
- Josh Allen is 27-36-2 on overs in his career.
- Sean McDermott is 48-33-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McDermott is 38-46-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Bills Offense
- The Bills are scoring 30.4 points per game, good for second in the league.
- Buffalo is first in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Josh Allen leads the league in yards passing, he’s tied for third in yards per attempt, and he’s 27th in air yards per attempt.
- Among quarterbacks, Josh Allen is fourth in the league in yards rushing (225).
- Allen has taken the 11th-most hurries, the 21st-most pressures, and the 19th-most sacks.
- Among running backs, Devin Singletary is 39th in yards rushing and sixth in yards receiving.
- Stefon Diggs is third in the league in receptions (39), fourth in yards receiving (508), and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (five). Diggs is 20th in target share (25.8%), and 22nd in air yards share (34.5%).
- Gabe Davis had an injury-riddled, slow start to the season before catching three-of-six targets for 171 yards receiving and two scores in Pittsburgh last week.
- With Jamison Crowder out, Isaiah McKenzie is positioned to run ahead of Jake Kumerow and Khalil Shakir.
- Dawson Knox barely breached 100 cumulative yards receiving through the first four games. Then he missed Week 5 and is currently on the injury report. If Knox misses this contest, rookie Quintin Morris is the next man up.
- Per TruMedia, Stefon Diggs has played 166 snaps on the perimeter and 76 in the slot.
- Gabe Davis has played 219 snaps on the perimeter and 24 in the slot.
- Isaiah McKenzie has played 38 snaps on the perimeter and 92 in the slot.
- Dawson Knox has played 91 snaps as an in-line tight end, 24 on the perimeter, and 67 in the slot.
Chiefs Defense
- The Chiefs have allowed 25 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- Kansas City is 24th in net yards passing allowed per game and third in yards rushing allowed per game.
- Kansas City is eighth in the league in sacks with 13 and 27th in interceptions with one.
- Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the fifth-fewest yards rushing and the most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Kansas City has given up the 11th-most yards receiving on the fifth-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Kansas City has given up the sixth-most PPR points to slot receivers this year.
- The Chiefs have allowed the 18th-most yards receiving on the 13th-most receptions to tight ends this season.
- The Chiefs have given up the ninth-most PPR points to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This is What You’re Betting On in Bills vs. Chiefs
- The Chiefs are 3-1 against Buffalo over the past two years:
- 2021 Divisional Round: Bills (36) at Chiefs (42) OT.
- 2021 Regular Season: Bills (38) at Chiefs (20).
- 2020 Conference Championship: Bills (24) at Chiefs (38).
- 2020 Monday Night Football: Chiefs (26) at Bills (17).
Tyreek Hill has creamed Buffalo in these matchups, so his loss will be felt in this contest. Buffalo could not limit Travis Kelce in these four contests, with Kelce catching 13 passes for 118 yards receiving and two touchdowns in the 2020 Conference Championship. Gabriel Davis went nuclear in last year’s divisional round matchup with eight catches for 201 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Stefon Diggs has not had an explosive game against the Chiefs.
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A bet on the Chiefs is always a bet on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. The Chiefs are 4-1 despite a challenging opening schedule (Kansas City has the most difficult schedule in the league this year). This contest against Buffalo is a matchup where the Chiefs are facing a team with an arguably better roster than theirs. The same was true in Week 2 when Kansas City beat the Chargers.
The Chiefs' offensive line is well equipped to handle Buffalo’s high-end front, which is a significant advantage Buffalo has had against the rest of their opponents this season. Like the Tampa game, this is a contest where Kansas City’s group of role players at wide receiver needs to step up against a difficult opponent. Your biggest concern with a Chiefs bet here is that Josh Allen has a game as he did in the playoffs last season.
A bet on the Bills is a bet on Josh Allen continuing to play at an MVP level. Like the Chiefs, Buffalo has gotten off to a 4-1 start despite a tough early schedule. The Bills enter their bye after this week, which could impact their handling of some of their injury situations.
Buffalo has a far more concerning injury report than Kansas City. This is the first opponent that Buffalo’s pass rush has faced that doesn’t have an average or worse offensive line. The strength of the Bills' defense over the last several years has been its secondary, which is down two of its best players in safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Tre’Davious White. Safety Jordan Poyer and Buffalo’s cornerback depth behind their two starters are on the injury report.
Your biggest concern with a Bills bet is that Patrick Mahomes is playing behind a high-caliber offensive line, and he’ll be facing a reduced Bills' secondary. This is a game where I will either take the over or stay entirely away from it from a totals perspective.
Bills vs. Chiefs Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: This game has massive MVP ramifications, as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are two of the favorites in that race.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will have some exposure to both teams in winner pools, though I currently lean towards Buffalo. There are several sub-three-point favorites this week, and all those contests will be ranked at the bottom of most confidence pools. I’d expect that I’ll be near consensus in that format with this matchup.
Spread Pool: I’m considering a Buffalo bet as a slight favorite, though I will wait for more injury report clarity later in the week.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 17-8
Props 2022: 16-10
WATCH MORE: Betting expert Chris Farley and former NFL player Tank Williams break down how to bet Bills vs. Chiefs
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