Analysis

1/19/23

8 min read

Matthew Hill's Divisional Round DFS Rankings

By Matthew Hill

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We've made it to Divisional Weekend, and with it, we have a talent-rich, four-game slate to analyze.

With that in mind, this article includes my complete rankings for the Divisional Round and player blurbs highlighting players I will target in DFS this week. The slate is deep with talented players (including a surprisingly deep tight end pool), so the temptation would be to cast a big net, highlighting a high percentage of the player pool to ensure some "good calls."

Instead, I will limit the write-ups to a few players at each position from different price points that I will be considering for my single-entry lineup. All prices are from DraftKings.

Quarterbacks

• Patrick Mahomes is the most expensive quarterback on the slate ($8,000 DK) for a reason. The Chiefs-Jaguars game has a 53-point total, five points higher than the second-highest projected contest. Mahomes has reached or exceeded 29 DraftKings points in eight games this season, including five of the past seven. Mahomes offers both the "safest" floor and one of the highest ceilings on the slate. The Chiefs and Jaguars' passing games feature several inexpensive, high-ceiling stacking/run-back options.
• Like last week, if I am not paying up for the top quarterback. I will be paying all the way down. Brock Purdy ($5,400) ripped Seattle's defense for 332 yards and three touchdowns through the air, adding another score with his legs.
• Dallas has surrendered only 208 yards passing a game this season and should put up considerably more fight. However, with Purdy's weapons and with the flexibility rostering Purdy brings to a lineup, he needs to be considered.

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Running Backs

• Travis Etienne ($6,400) is a strong volume play coming off of a wild-card game where he logged 20 carries, played 93% of the snaps and finished with 121 yards rushing. Etienne should see similar usage against a Chiefs defense that has allowed running backs to rush for an average of 121 yards per game this season. Only Saquon Barkley is likely to rival Etienne's snap share and potential volume in a slate that features committee-heavy teams. 

• After struggling through unfavorable matchups combined with a nagging knee injury, Miles Sanders ($5,700) has seen his production decline, and with it, his price tag (from a high of $6,800 in Week 12). With the Eagles having secured a bye and Sanders having time to rest his knee, he is looking like the top value at running back at home against a Giants defense he gashed for 144 yards and two scores in Week 14.

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Wide Receivers

• CeeDee Lamb ($7,300) has been dominant down the stretch, cresting 16 fantasy points in six of seven games. Despite his recent excellence, ownership may be suppressed for fantasy's No. 2 overall receiver since Week 10 with many people seeing "at San Francisco" and staying away. The 49ers, however, have been surprisingly generous to wide receivers this season, allowing opposing receivers to reach double-digit PPR points in every game this season. 
• Deebo Samuel ($5,900) saw his snap share (69% to 78%), routes (21 to 28) and targets (3 to 9) all increase significantly in his second game back from injury. Samuel turned his nine targets and three carries into six receptions, 165 total yards and a score. That was good for 31.5 PPR points. I know the Cowboys-49ers game has the lowest total on the slate, but Samuel remains underpriced. A Purdy and Deebo stack ($11,300 total) is an inexpensive start to a lineup.
• Gabe Davis ($4,800) posted a six-catch, 113 yard and one touchdown line on nine targets and has 19 targets in the past two games. Despite his hot streak, his price has not changed from last week and is $600 less than what it was in Week 18. Davis will be popular, but with his recent usage, low price and his game's 48-point total I will want exposure. 
• Marvin Jones ($3,600) has seen six or more targets in four of his past five games (29 targets overall), and his matchup vs. the Chiefs has the highest total on the slate. Even more encouraging is Jones logging an 84% snap share, his highest total since Week 5. While he is undoubtedly not a must-rostered player, at his price, he is worthy of consideration for those needing to find salary relief.

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Tight Ends

• You know the deal. Travis Kelce ($7,700) offers a floor/ceiling combination unmatched by any other tight end, and his price tag reflects this. He is the one constant among the Chiefs' receiving options and an ideal stack with Mahomes. However, stacking the two Kansas City studs is the most expensive single stack ($15,700) on the slate and limits what you can do with the rest of your lineup. Kelce has not found the end zone since November, causing the most microscopic of concerns. Still, as long as you are comfortable having a lineup with multiple value plays, Kelce must be considered a high-upside building block. 

• I will want as much exposure to the Jacksonville-Kansas City game as possible, and Evan Engram's ($4,300) elite wild-card usage (96% snaps, 11 targets resulting in a seven-catch, 93 yard and one touchdown stat line) makes him both a floor and ceiling play at a low cost.
• Engram's price makes him an easy double stack/run-back with Jacksonville's reasonably priced wide receivers, Christian Kirk ($6,000), Zay Jones ($4,700), or even Marvin Jones in the flex. 
• Dawson Knox ($3,800) extended his scoring streak to five straight games…resulting in his price tag dropping $200. This slate is filled with strong, reasonably priced tight end options, so he is not a must-play, especially with him having only seen a dozen targets over his past three games. However, his cost and red zone usage make him someone worth having exposure to.

WATCH: Gabriel Davis Boom or Bust vs. Bengals?

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Matthew Hill

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Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.