Expert Analysis
2/7/24
7 min read
Don't Pick Against Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Conspiracy theorists love to say it was preordained by the NFL that the Kansas City Chiefs would make and win this year’s Super Bowl to enlist a massive new fan base of Swifties.
No, folks, the truth is there’s a more sinister force at work this postseason, and I expect it to carry the day on Super Sunday. It's an ultra-clutch, big-game masterful quarterback named Patrick Mahomes, who is embracing his role as the villainous leader of the NFL’s latest dynasty.
Mea culpa — I picked against Mahomes and the Chiefs twice this postseason. I won’t make that mistake a third time.
Mahomes owns the best postseason winning percentage of any quarterback in NFL history who has played more than 10 playoff games. He’s at 82.4 percent and counting based on his 14-3 record.
Chiefs Overcame Inconsistent Regular season
The Chiefs and their two-time NFL and Super Bowl MVP had an uneven regular season. They lost the opener at home against the Detroit Lions in a game filled with dropped passes. They lost four of six games from Weeks 11-16 as the passing game sputtered. The defense played a bigger role in the team’s overall success.
As the season progressed, Mahomes was victimized by an excessive number of dropped passes from a wide receiver corps below the standard set by the Tyreek Hill group before his departure to Miami.
But Mahomes never threw underperforming receivers like Kadarious Toney under the bus. As the team leader, Mahomes stayed positive.
After a 21-14 Week 9 triumph against the Miami Dolphins in Germany in which Mahomes passed for only 185 yards to 11 different receivers (none with more than 34 receiving yards), he said, “We’ll work to get this offense figured out but until then, this defense is legit.”
He’s been proven right this postseason about both the offense and defense.
We'll work to get this offense figured out but until then, this defense is legit.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes Proves Doubters WRong in Playoffs
After coasting to their eighth straight AFC West title, the Chiefs entered the playoffs as the No. 3 seed and easily dispatched Miami 26-7 in the Wild Card round.
Mahomes was just warming up at sub-zero Arrowhead Stadium. He threw for 262 yards and one TD to rookie receiver Rashee Rice, who emerged with eight catches for 130 yards. Isiah Pacheco pounded the Dolphins with 89 rushing yards, and the Chiefs' defense shut down Tua Tagovailoa and Hill.
Ah, but that was at home, the skeptics (including me) said. After 13 straight home playoff games (other than three Super Bowls), Mahomes and Company were going on the road to face a hot Buffalo team in the Divisional round.
I picked Josh Allen and the Bills, who had beaten the Chiefs in Kansas City, 20-17, in Week 14 to launch a six-game winning streak. Bad choice.
To the delight of his girlfriend Taylor Swift and shirtless brother Jason viewing from a suite, Travis Kelce combined with Mahomes for two TD passes. That made them the most prolific quarterback-receiver duo in playoff history with 16 TD connections.
Mahomes didn’t throw a lot — only 23 times, with 17 completions for 215 yards. But with Pacheco's 97 rushing yards and a defense that held the Bills scoreless in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs won 27-24.
In the AFC Championship at Baltimore, I again picked against the Chiefs and Mahomes, thinking it was Lamar Jackson’s time. Wrong again.
Mahomes outplayed Jackson in the matchup of MVPs, recording 241 passing yards and no turnovers vs. a costly fourth quarter interception (thrown into triple coverage) and a lost fumble by Jackson.
Mahomes and Kelce continued their brilliant postseason connection with a terrific throw and catch for an opening-drive, 19-yard TD. It was part of a nine-catch first half for Kelce on his way to 11 receptions for 116 yards.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo orchestrated a great game plan on both sides of the ball as Kansas City jumped to a 17-7 lead. That put the pressure on a rattled Ravens team, and the Chiefs held on for the seven-point win.
The NFL's Newest villain?
Now the Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl with Mahomes riding high and full of confidence. He has won six straight postseason games. In those games, he has 11 TD passes, no interceptions, one lost fumble and 135 yards rushing. Many of those yards on the ground picked up key first downs.
Mahomes also says he’s having fun with the villain role as successor to the Tom Brady-led Patriots dynasty that won six Super Bowls over 18 years from 2002-2019.
“I know the Patriots had that for a while,” Mahomes told ESPN. “I’m hoping to do it with a little more fun and personality. But as long as you keep winning, teams start to not like you, and I want to keep winning.
"If some other teams and fan bases aren’t going to like me, I’ll try to still have a smile on my face and not be a bad example, but I can be that villain for them if they need me to be.”
49ers Stand Between Third Title in Five Years
Seven years ago, it was the beginning of a magical era for the Chiefs when GM Brett Veach convinced Reid to trade up to No. 10 overall in the 2017 draft to select a highly productive quarterback from Texas Tech who had played in the little defense Big 12.
It was a franchise-altering move as Mahomes won league MVP honors in his second season (his first as the starter). He won his first Super Bowl in his third season when he led a 31-20 come-from-behind victory against the San Francisco 49ers with 21 fourth-quarter points.
Mahomes Is Money In Playoffs
| Season | Record | Comp.-Att | Yards | TD-INT | Result |
| 2018 | 1-1 | 43-72 (59.7%) | 573 | 3-0 | Lost to NE in AFC Championship |
| 2019 | 3-0 | 72-112 (64.3%) | 901 | 10-2 | Beat SF in Super Bowl LIV |
| 2020 | 2-1 | 76-117 (65%) | 850 | 4-2 | Lost to TB in Super Bowl LV |
| 2021 | 2-1 | 89-122 (73%) | 1,057 | 11-3 | Lost to CIN in AFC Championship |
| 2022 | 3-0 | 72-100 (72%) | 703 | 7-0 | Beat PHI in Super Bowl LVII |
| 2023 | 3-0 | 70-103 (68%) | 718 | 4-0 | Playing SF in Super Bowl LVIII |
| Totals | 14-3 | 422-626 (67.4%) | 4,802 | 39-7 |
The rematch is Sunday against a balanced San Francisco team with plenty of star power. The 49ers, defense, led by Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, will challenge Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense.
49ers QB Brock Purdy is a great story. It will be interesting to see how effective he and the strong 49ers offense can be against the Chiefs' defense led by DT Chris Jones. Kansas City's defense has allowed only 14 points per game this postseason.
I’m surprised the 49ers are a 2½-point favorite over a Chiefs team with a much more impressive recent playoff pedigree. The 49ers haven’t won a Super Bowl since January of 1995, eight months before Mahomes was born.
Like the all-time greats such as Joe Montana, big-game pressure doesn’t rattle Mahomes. He raises his level of play on the biggest stages. I’ve learned my lesson this postseason. I’m picking Mahomes to lead the Chiefs to a 31-27 victory and win his third Super Bowl in five years.
I doubt I’ll ever pick against him in future playoff games, which will be plentiful for the still-only 28-year-old.
So Super Bowl LVIII is not about the Swifties. It’s about the Mahomies and their leader, who is fueling this meteoric, dynastic run that shows no signs of slowing down, with four Super Bowl appearances in the last five years.
A third title is likely to come this Sunday night in Las Vegas.
