NFL Analysis
12/22/24
5 min read
Michael Penix Jr.'s Debut Proves Falcons Have a Bright Future
The Atlanta Falcons didn't ask Michael Penix Jr. to do much in his first NFL start, but he looked polished enough to be the team's starting quarterback going forward.
Atlanta's defense carried the team to a 34-7 win against the New York Giants on Sunday. That blowout included a pair of touchdowns from Bijan Robinson and two scores from the Falcons' defense on interceptions returned for touchdowns.
Penix only posted modest numbers, completing 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards and an interception. However, anyone who watched the game saw a poised rookie quarterback who looks like an upgrade over the current version of Kirk Cousins at the position.
A solid Debut
Even if the box score numbers don't show it, Penix did a good job of keeping the Falcons' offense moving on Sunday.
It's worth contextualizing some of Penix's numbers against the Giants, specifically with his interception. The turnover came in the red zone, but it was a good throw from Penix to Kyle Pitts, who lost control of the ball directly into the hands of a Giants defender.
kyle pitts welcome to the gulag pic.twitter.com/jFwdcRvPtS
— Tre’Shon (@tre3shon) December 22, 2024
However, even with that interception, Penix was more than efficient with his limited passing opportunities. According to RBSDM, the Falcons' first-round quarterback posted a solid 8.1 total EPA with 0.27 EPA per play.
For context, that EPA per play would be good enough for fourth in the NFL this season heading into Week 16, per NFELO.
That is some impressive efficiency for a quarterback who wasn't given a ton of favors by his supporting cast on Atlanta's offense. Including the interception, the Falcons were credited with three drops in the game. Penix's adjusted completion percentage of 81.5 percent in the game would be the highest of any quarterback for a full season in 2024.
Penix also did a good job of avoiding any drastic mistakes with the football. He was credited with zero turnover-worthy plays and was also sacked zero times despite being pressured on eight of his 30 dropbacks.
It seems as if the Falcons rolled out a conservative game plan for Penix, knowing that they were going against a weaker opponent. But Penix deserves credit for embracing that plan instead of trying to do everything himself and force throws into tight windows.
That doesn't mean that Penix didn't make any impressive throws. In fact, he came up clutch a handful of times on third down to keep the chains moving and set up his offense for scoring drives.
While he didn't take a lot of deep shots, this intermediate route on third down was a good example of the kind of zip that Penix can deliver on his passes. He also used his eyes to hold the linebacker and open up a throwing window.
Michael Penix definitely has one of the strongest arms in the NFL! Atlanta Falcons got them one! pic.twitter.com/7AO3f3D8XX
— JAiHAWKFLY℠ (@JAiHAWKFLY) December 22, 2024
Third down might have been where Penix shined the most on Sunday. According to TruMedia, Penix completed 7-of-10 passes for 91 yards and five first downs on third down, and one of those attempts was the drop from Pitts that resulted in the interception.
For someone making their first NFL start, Penix's composure and ability to clutch up in key moments was far more impressive than his arm talent. If this is the version that Atlanta is getting moving forward, then they made the right decision drafting him in the first round despite already signing Cousins in free agency.
More Opportunities To Shine
The Falcons still need some things to break their way to make the playoffs. However, regardless of the outcomes, the final two games of the regular season will give Penix even more opportunities to prove himself and what he's capable of to Falcons fans.
According to FTN Fantasy, the Giants ranked 27th in defensive DVOA heading into Sunday. The remaining two matchups aren't any better defensively, with the Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers ranking 25th and 31st in DVOA, respectively.
Those are also two upcoming opponents who have found their footing offensively. Jayden Daniels looks like the potential Offensive Rookie of the Year, while Bryce Young has been playing well enough to keep games close over the last few weeks, even pulling off an upset win over the Arizona Cardinals this week.
Both of those matchups suggest potential shootout games, which means that Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson won't be able to be as conservative with Penix as he was on Sunday against the Giants.
That may not be a bad thing, however. Penix has the arm talent and desire to push the field vertically, and Atlanta has the weapons in Drake London and Darnell Mooney to make that happen.
The next two weeks might give Falcons fans a better, more complete picture of Penix's skill set. Regardless of what that means for the playoffs, Atlanta's future should still be exciting.
Kirk's Future
Cousins' time in Atlanta looks like it's already over.
ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Saturday that the Falcons are planning to release Cousins before his roster bonus is due in March. That comes just months after the Falcons signed the veteran quarterback to a four-year, $180 million contract in free agency.
Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot was heavily criticized during the 2024 NFL Draft for taking a quarterback in the first round after signing Cousins to such a large deal. The move actually turned out to be a way to avoid disaster if Cousins didn't pan out, and now Atlanta is in a position to make a playoff run with its rookie quarterback.
However, all of that depends on the next couple of weeks, so the pressure is on Penix to keep the offense moving and score points against the Commanders and Panthers.
Potential Landing Spots for Kirk Cousins
