NFL Analysis
3/19/25
6 min read
Minnesota Vikings Are Taking An Unnecessary Risk on J.J. McCarthy
The Minnesota Vikings appear to be all in on second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy, but the team is putting itself in a position with unnecessary risk that could result in disaster for a team built to compete for a Super Bowl in 2025.
NFL Network insider Tom Pelissero reported on Wednesday morning that the Vikings have rejected multiple trade calls for McCarthy. That's not a surprise, but the bigger nugget from Pelissero is that the Vikings aren't pursuing Aaron Rodgers, opting instead to find another veteran quarterback in free agency.
Outside of Rodgers, the rest of the available free agent quarterbacks don't appear to be reliable starters, including the likes of Russell Wilson, Trey Lance, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco, and Jameis Winston.
Instead of bringing in a veteran to compete with McCarthy for the starting job or even re-signing Sam Darnold, the Vikings seem confident in McCarthy's ability to be the full-time starter in 2025. There's a path to McCarthy being a franchise quarterback, given the talent around him, but there's a substantial amount of risk going into this decision.
The injury factor
McCarthy missed his entire rookie season after tearing his meniscus in the preseason. A knee injury is a tough way to start an NFL career, but the details are even more concerning for the 2024 first-round pick.
The injury not only forced McCarthy to miss his entire rookie year but also required a second surgery in November. McCarthy saw increased swelling in his knee after an increased workload during the rehab process.
While McCarthy's timetable hasn't changed, that second surgery should be a concern. The rehab process resulted in the Vikings quarterback dropping more than 20 pounds, putting him under 200 pounds before he had to bulk back up once fully healed.
With McCarthy's increased injury concerns, the Vikings have clearly put an emphasis on protecting their young quarterback. Along with releasing Garrett Bradbury, who has struggled in pass protection during his career, the Vikings gave out $106 million in contracts to Ryan Kelly and Will Fries to bolster their offensive line.
Even if McCarthy makes it through the entire 2025 season healthy, it's surprising to see the Vikings be so comfortable accepting the injury risk in such an important season without a backup plan that's capable of being a playoff-caliber quarterback.
Letting Darnold Walk
Darnold was given a massive deal with the Seattle Seahawks, signing a three-year, $100.5 million contract.
Instead of giving Darnold that kind of money in free agency, the Vikings opted to build out the rest of their roster. Still, it's important to look at the production that the Vikings passed up on, even if Darnold's run fizzled out in the playoffs.
According to NFELO, Darnold ranked 12th out of 63 qualified quarterbacks in success rate, 11th in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), and seventh in win probability added per dropback.
Darnold's biggest problem was how much his production dropped when throwing under pressure. His passer rating dropped to 84.1 when throwing when facing pressure, and his 21.7 percent pressure-to-sack ratio was one of the highest in the NFL among full-time starters.
The Vikings may not have been able to afford their offensive line upgrades in Ryan Kelly and Will Fries if they had brought Darnold back, but they could have addressed the needs on the interior of their offensive line in the draft to set up their former first-round pick for success in 2025 and beyond.
Passing on Rodgers
Minnesota's decision to let Darnold walk in favor of other acquisitions in free agency makes a lot of sense from an overall team-building perspective, with the bigger question being why the Vikings aren't interested in a cheaper short-term deal for an established veteran like Aaron Rodgers.
At 41 years old and nearing the end of his career, Rodgers likely won't demand top-of-market money, given that only a handful of teams would be interested in signing him.
Rodgers could have been a more cost-effective option for the Vikings over Darnold. This would have allowed McCarthy to get healthy, protected him from risking re-injury in 2025, and allowed him to learn behind a future Hall of Famer.
Despite some brutal early-season struggles, Rodgers started to turn things around late in 2024 with the New York Jets. In his final 10 games, the former Jets quarterback posted a 97.0 passer rating with 2,234 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just four interceptions.
That's a more than respectable level of player, given the disappointing talent around him in New York. The Vikings present a far more loaded roster for the 41-year-old quarterback to play with some top-tier playmakers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson to throw to.
Kevin O'Connell could likely want a quarterback willing to buy into his scheme, but Rodgers throwing to such talented weapons could have made the Vikings' offense a dangerous threat if the quarterback and head coach could find common ground.
Rodgers will likely continue to see age-related regression, but for at least one more season, there's a good chance that the former MVP quarterback could have made the Vikings a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
The case for McCarthy
For all of the risk that the Vikings are taking by rolling with McCarthy, there's still a path for the second-year quarterback to take the league by storm.
In a limited sample size, McCarthy looked like an exciting playmaker under center for the Vikings during the 2024 preseason. In his one preseason game, McCarthy completed 11-of-17 passes for 188 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception for a 116.8 passer rating.
This was JJ McCarthy’s Preseason Debut … he lit it up 👀
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) December 30, 2024
Is he worth a first rounder if the #Vikings decide to sign Darnold long-term? 🤔
(🎥 @NFL) pic.twitter.com/HWKCE7ClQn
McCarthy's preseason debut was promising. He showed the ability to layer the ball into throwing windows, push the ball downfield, and even step into pressure to deliver accurate passes.
If he's 100 percent healthy, McCarthy's mobility is a key component that he can bring to Minnesota's offense. The Michigan Wolverines weren't afraid to let him run or scramble in college, and he rushed for more than 600 yards and 10 touchdowns despite sacks counting against his rushing numbers at the NCAA level.
There are still a lot of unknowns with McCarthy, especially after his meniscus injury. However, with his ability to throw the ball and take off with his legs, it's at least understandable why the Vikings organization wants to see what their 2024 first-round pick is capable of heading into the 2025 season.
It's just a bit baffling that they don't seem interested in a capable backup plan based on how loaded the rest of their roster is.
