NFL Analysis
3/15/24
5 min read
Minnesota Vikings Make Bold 2024 NFL Draft Trade — Who's Their Franchise QB Target?
The NFL free agency period barely hit the second wave of signings before a trade with only 2024 NFL Draft picks was completed.
On Friday, the Minnesota Vikings swapped several picks with the Houston Texans to move up in the first round. Even though Minnesota signed veteran Sam Darnold after Kirk Cousins bolted to Atlanta, the Vikings are set to trade up again for a franchise quarterback.
As the only team with two first-round picks in this class, the Vikings have more ammunition than any potential trade partner who wants to move into the top three selections.
Who could the Vikings target if they trade up or sit tight?
Finding A Trade Partner
With Darnold as the only possible starter on the roster, the Vikings clearly had to make a move. Coach Kevin O'Connell couldn't put his fate into Darnold’s hands. He has a career 78.3 passer rating, a 63:56 TD/INT ratio and is on his fourth team in five years.
Friday's trade spelled out how seriously the Vikings are concerned about being iced out from the draft's top quarterbacks. They traded their 42nd and 188th overall picks in 2024 and their 2025 second-rounder for the 23rd and 232nd overall picks. It's hard to imagine Minnesota giving up assets to build around Darnold.
The Vikings now have the 11th, 23rd and 108th overall picks as their main 2024 assets to offer New England or Arizona. Their 2025 first-rounder might be needed to get a deal done, leaving the Vikings without a first- and second-round pick next year.
However, if this trade calculator is somewhat accurate, the Vikings would only need to move Nos. 11, 23 and 108 to entice the Patriots and Cardinals. Is that enough for Arizona to settle on Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers instead of Marvin Harrison Jr.?
The stage is set for a franchise- and regime-defining move-up. New England's willingness to trade down has been talked about all offseason. If they don't love Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye, one of which will be available, then moving down and starting Jacoby Brissett is possible. ESPN reported this was a distinct possibility one month ago.
The bar for quarterback play in the AFC is unbelievably high, so New England must consider whether it trusts its options to compete with the conference's best.
Which QB Makes Sense?
Caleb Williams is expected to go No. 1, and Minnesota hasn't made a move for Justin Fields. If the Vikings stick at No. 11 and 23, they might find Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. on the board.
Nix and Penix are solid but concerning prospects. Both are older than Maye and less dynamic than Daniels. Penix's injury sheet is as long as his impressive highlight reel. It's hard to forget Nix's struggles at Auburn when he wasn't asked to be a game manager with elite talent.
Then, there's the wildcard, J.J. McCarthy. I'd argue he's the cleanest fit for O'Connell's system, boasting a stronger arm than Maye and more mobility than Nix or Penix. He's not as proven or explosive as Williams or Daniels, but Minnesota might not (or won't in Williams' case) get a chance to draft either.
However, McCarthy didn't play a significant role in Michigan's offense, and his accuracy is concerning. Would they be happy with McCarthy if the Vikings can only move up to No. 4 or 5 before the New York Giants pick? The Giants also appear ripe to take a passer, considering Daniel Jones' poor play and injury history.
The Vikings have likely done the legwork to see which teams are open to their proposed trade offers. The difference in picking 23rd and 42nd isn't massive in this class. Still, the move up is worthwhile if they are targeting Nix or Penix. It's hard to imagine they'd risk passing on one of those two at No. 11 and exposing them to Denver, Las Vegas and even Seattle.
Which QB Minnesota prefers is a fascinating subplot.
Maye plays much like Patrick Mahomes did in 2023 and has Tom Brady's late-career pocket tendencies. He thrives in the quick game, has enough athleticism to make defenders miss and generates enough velocity to make plays outside the pocket. His touch is better than his arm strength, but he's experienced making full-field, more complex reads.
Daniels is the most explosive of the bunch, boasting terrific speed and deep passing accuracy. He's unlike anyone O'Connell has developed. However, he has concerns similar to Fields as a passer over the middle of the field. Daniels has a spectacular ceiling but will require an overhaul of the offensive scheme.
Then, there's McCarthy. He's a plug-and-play option who fits the scheme better than Darnold. McCarthy will take what's there and is daring enough to give Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison a chance to make chunk plays. Darnold has always struggled to play within the scheme, whereas McCarthy will execute and can be a playmaker outside of structure.
Regardless of the team's choice, things are heating up. The 2024 NFL Draft is only six weeks away, so expect more action soon.
