Betting
3/1/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Combine: Favorite 40-Yard Over/Under Picks
Major national sports books like DraftKings and FanDuel aren’t currently offering combine-specific betting options. But PrizePicks has many 40-yard dash times listed where you can place a bet. We're breaking down a few of our favorites.
If you’ve never used Prizepicks before, you have to pick two to six options to cluster together. PrizePicks provides you with a line and you then select if you want to be over that line (MORE) or under (LESS).
Bryce Young - MORE than 4.58
- Cam Newton ran a 4.59 for context.
- Bryce Young (scouting report) was never a remotely productive runner in college.
- Russell Wilson is another smaller-framed QB, who Young is not compared to, as Young lacks the speed of Wilson - Wilson ran a 4.55 time, which was 96th percentile for the QB position, according to Player Profiler.
C.J. Stroud - MORE than 4.72
- This line is down from 4.75.
- Similar skill set to Dak Prescott, who ran 4.79.
- C.J. Stroud (scouting report) was a near-zero with his legs in college, and Daniel Jones — who had 10 times as many rushing yards in college — ran a 4.81 40 at the combine.
Bijan Robinson - MORE than 4.47
- Miles Sanders ran a 4.49 40-time at 211 pounds, which is the 77th percentile size-adjusted speed.
- Bijan Robinson (scouting report) should come in heavier than Sanders, and his one knock is an obvious lack of long speed.
Devon Achane - MORE than 4.29
- Devon Achane (scouting report) will have to run one of the fastest 40-yard dashes at the RB position ever to beat this number.
- He’s electric enough to do it, but there’s a very small margin for error.
- Last year, Pierre Strong and Isiah Pacheco led all RBs with 40-yard dash times of 4.37 at the NFL Combine.
- You need to go back to Corey Grant in 2015 (4.28) to find a RB that was under 4.29.
Jahmyr Gibbs - MORE than 4.38
- As mentioned previously, last year, Strong and Pacheco led all RBs with 40-times of 4.37 at the NFL Combine.
- There isn’t consensus in draft circles as to whether Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report) has elite acceleration and long speed or if it’s just very good. I’m not going to bet on Gibbs to put up one of the fastest RB times in the past decade, even though I really like the player overall.
Jordan Addison - MORE than 4.4
- Most scouts agree Jordan Addison (scouting report) has very good speed, but it’s not an elite trait.
- Elite speed players like Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave ran 4.38 and 4.39 times, respectively. Wilson’s 4.38 was 94th percentile for the position.
- Jahan Dotson’s 4.43 time feels more in line with what to expect from Addison.
Tyree Wilson - LESS than 4.82
- This line moved up from 4.8.
- I was leaning toward the under for Tyree Wilson (scouting report) before the favorable line movement.
Myles Murphy - LESS than 4.57
- This line moved up from 4.55.
- The 33rd Team's scouting report on Murphy compares him to Travon Walker, who ran 4.51.
Line Movement
Lines move fast in this market, so we wanted to provide an example of a bet we would have made yesterday but not today: Zach Charbonnet (scouting report) moved from 4.46 to 4.52.
We’d still lean MORE on Charbonnet’s 4.52 time, but we’ve lost considerable margin with this line movement. Instead of forcing it, now we’ll pass.
WATCH: Top Candidate to Break Combine 40 Record
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