NFL Analysis
1/16/24
14 min read
NFL Divisional Playoff Power Rankings: Bills-Chiefs Matches Top-4 Teams
Our power rankings focus on the eight teams still standing heading into the Divisional Round.
Our rankings are driven by who teams are today, rather than what they’ve done over the course of the regular season. We’ll also factor in every team’s path to winning the Super Bowl, as well as their current injury situations.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Power Rankings
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) 
Seed: 1st
Last week: Bye
The Baltimore Ravens finished with the NFL’s best record, behind the league’s best defense and its likely MVP, QB Lamar Jackson.
Coming off their bye, the Ravens will host the Texans, who they beat decisively on opening day. Many of Baltimore’s key players sat for the regular season finale, giving them two weeks of rest. The Ravens are the better, more experienced team.
Consistency is the foundation for the Ravens’ success throughout this century. If Baltimore beats Houston, the pressure will be on the Ravens in the AFC Championship. Whether they face Buffalo or Kansas City, both AFC powerhouses have more experience in these situations.
Divisional Round Matchup: vs. Texans
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Seed: 1st
Last week: Bye
We’ve been saying all season the San Francisco 49ers have the league’s best and most complete roster. Not only do they have a talent advantage against every opponent, but they’ve played in three of the past four NFC Championship games. They also have the easiest path to the Super Bowl.
The 49ers rested many of their key players in the regular season finale, giving them two weeks of rest.
Green Bay showed last week it is capable of a monster game against a premium opponent. However, beating this 49ers team, especially coming off a bye, is one of the biggest challenges in football. As long as QB Brock Purdy plays an efficient game, as he often does, San Francisco remains in the driver’s seat.
Divisional Round Matchup: vs. Packers
3. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
Seed: 2nd
Last week: Bills 31, Steelers 17
The Buffalo Bills have won six straight, which were all, effectively, must-win games for them. In other words, the Bills have been in playoff form for a month and a half.
Josh Allen carried the Bills to victory, as he often does, against Pittsburgh. The downside is Buffalo’s defense suffered a few more injuries heading into the matchup with Kansas City. The Chiefs could face two AFC East powerhouses with injury-ravaged defenses in as many weeks.
Divisional Round Matchup: vs. Chiefs
4. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Seed: 3rd
Last week: Chiefs 26, Dolphins 7
The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense is coming off one of its better games of the season in arctic temperatures against injury-ravaged Miami. Rookie WR Rashee Rice has been steadily emerging as a difference-maker for weeks. He topped that off with 130 receiving yards against the Dolphins.
If Kansas City continues to play rock-solid defense, it can do enough on offense to win the whole thing.
If the Chiefs have to go punch-for-punch in shootouts against the elite teams they’ll face the rest of the way, that will rest on Patrick Mahomes’ right arm. Considering the Chiefs’ struggles, that’s not a bad position to be in for the defending champs.
Divisional Round Matchup: at Bills
5. Detroit Lions (12-5)
Seed: 3rd
Last week: Lions 24, Rams 23
The Detroit Lions escaped with a home victory over Matthew Stafford’s Rams on Sunday night.
Detroit’s offense continues to be a rock-solid unit, but Stafford threw for 367 yards. The Lions have given up at least 340 passing yards in each of their past four games.
The Lions will play host to Tampa Bay in the Divisional Round. Detroit beat the Buccaneers 20-6 in Week 5 in Tampa. That said, the Buccaneers are a different team now than they were early in the season.
Baker Mayfield threw for 337 passing yards against the Eagles in the wild-card round. Jalen Hurts was also under consistent duress in that contest. If Mayfield plays well in Detroit, the Buccaneers are far from an easy out.
Divisional Round Matchup: vs. Buccaneers
6. Houston Texans (10-7)
Seed: 4th
Last week: Texans 45, Browns 14
C.J. Stroud is already a talent elevator who makes the Houston Texans dangerous against any opponent. However, of all the teams left in the playoffs, Stroud has the weakest supporting cast on offense.
If Houston beats Baltimore, Stroud will have to knock off two of the league’s elite quarterbacks just to get to the Super Bowl. The Texans are already playing with house money, but a trip to the big game is a lofty expectation for this group.
Baltimore beat Houston 25-9 on opening day in Stroud’s NFL debut. The Texans are a much different team now, but so are the Ravens.
Divisional Round Matchup: at Ravens
7. Green Bay Packers (9-8)
Seed: 7th
Last week: Packers 48, Cowboys 32
Wow is the only word that can describe the Green Bay Packers’ performance in Dallas last week. It’s not a complete surprise the Packers won, but no one envisioned the blowout that took place.
QB Jordan Love and RB Aaron Jones played ceiling games, and the Packers' defense played to its potential as well. Most of the Cowboys’ production came when they were already down big.
The question now is, can the Packers do it again in San Francisco against the most talented team in the league?
Divisional Round Matchup: at 49ers
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
Seed: 4th
Last week: Buccaneers 32, Eagles 9
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took care of business, in decisive fashion, against a broken Eagles team in the wild-card round. The Buccaneers have won six of their past seven and will head to Detroit to face a Lions’ defense that has been consistently torched through the air. Baker Mayfield has thrown for more than 300 yards in three of the Buccaneers' past five games.
Todd Bowles’ defense is also capable of generating enough pressure to give Jared Goff problems. The Buccaneers have a real shot of leaving Detroit with a win in the Divisional Round.
Divisional Round Matchup: at Lions
