NFL Analysis

1/17/24

10 min read

NFL Divisional Playoff Quarterback Power Rankings: Stroud, Love Jump Into Top Five

By Derrik Klassen

Film Analyst
Quarterback Rankings Josh Allen Patrick Mahomes Lamar Jackson

The playoff bracket right now is defined by the overwhelming difference in quarterback play between the two conferences. 

The AFC has all the studs. Patrick Mahomes needs no introduction, Lamar Jackson is about to win MVP, Josh Allen is a win condition in and of himself and C.J. Stroud is one of the best rookie quarterbacks we’ve seen in the modern era. 

All four of these quarterbacks are stars. They are the four best passers remaining in the postseason, and it's a shame only one of them will make it to the finish line. 

However, in the NFC, the quarterback play is more good than great. Brock Purdy put up MVP numbers and has been a revelation for the Kyle Shanahan-era San Francisco 49ers, but Purdy still doesn't feel like the engine the way the elite AFC quarterbacks are for their offenses. 

More or less the same could be said for Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. Baker Mayfield has unequivocally turned his career around, but he is still prone to some of the mistakes and inconsistencies that keep him from the top tier. 

Jordan Love is the exception and feels like the only guy who could really go throw for throw with the elites if it came down to it. 

With that said, here’s this week’s quarterback rankings heading into the divisional round. 

Divisional Round QB Rankings

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Wild-Card Ranking: 1

Patrick Mahomes started the playoffs the same way he played all regular season. That is, Mahomes was significantly better than the pedestrian box score he posted. 

On its face, 23 of 41 for 262 yards (6.4 yards per pass) is nothing to get excited about. Mahomes only threw a single touchdown pass, too. Nothing about his stats say Mahomes was playing at a high level. 

The film, however? It does not lie. 

Mahomes was outstanding for most of this game. Against an all-out blitz attack from the Miami Dolphins, he constantly preempted pressure by getting the ball out on time and to the right target. 

He played a clean, efficient game that would have been much smoother without five or six errors from his pass-catchers, including three early Travis Kelce drops and multiple instances of Mecole Hardman simply not running to the football. 

The game was a reminder that Mahomes is still Mahomes — and nobody wants to deal with that in the playoffs. Parts of the roster around him are still imperfect and could sink this version of the team. Still, Mahomes is individually every bit as dangerous as he has ever been. 

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Wild-Card Ranking: 2

Lamar Jackson had the luxury of a week off with the Baltimore Ravens earning the AFC’s first seed. 

The first-team All-Pro quarterback and presumptive MVP winner should come out firing against the Houston Texans. 

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Wild-Card Ranking: 3

The story of Josh Allen's career in the past year — maybe two — is how much he's developed as a mature, rhythmic passer. All the exaggeration and exhausting fanfare over his interceptions would have you thinking that couldn't possibly be the case. 

However, when you study Allen on film, it's clear how much he's grown with regard to handling a voluminous passing game without defaulting into chaos mode. 

Monday afternoon's win against the Pittsburgh Steelers was a testament to that growth. We've seen Allen be that guy for stretches during the regular season, but to get it done in the playoffs brings a different kind of assurance this is something he can sustain. 

For more on the wild-card performance from Allen and the Bills offense, read my column from Monday: Josh Allen's Improved Maturity Gives Bills Chance To Win AFC.

4. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans 

Wild-Card Ranking: 6

C.J. Stroud was legitimately historic in his playoff debut. 

Not only is Stroud the youngest quarterback to ever win a playoff game, but he earned it with three touchdown throws, tied for the rookie record in a playoff game. Even Stroud's 274 passing yards were the sixth-most by a rookie in a single game. 

As was the case with the Texans all year, their fireworks show on offense was equal parts delightful play-calling and dynamic quarterback play. 

From a play-calling perspective, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik did a fantastic job exploiting the Browns' coverage preferences and getting Stroud some gimmes. 

The Texans found success on a handful of screens and a couple of slide routes off of motion to get defensive backs in man coverage running through traffic before the snap. TE Brevin Jordan's 76-yard touchdown was a sweet design and call, as well. 

A simple boot-action concept into the boundary out of 12 personnel — where the defender responsible for Jordan got lost in the run action — let him run free for the score. 

Stroud, of course, made a handful of unreal throws: the throw to Nico Collins under pressure on the first drive, the dropped sail route to Dalton Schultz right after that, the deep bomb to Schultz for a touchdown in the second half.... Stroud was on the money for just about every one of his 21 throws. 

The combination of Stroud and Slowik can take over any game at any time. That's so, so rare to say about a rookie quarterback and play-caller separately, let alone together. 

5. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Wild-Card Ranking: 7

Jordan Love is the toughest quarterback to place in the rankings. I think there is a reasonable argument to have him over Stroud. Those two could be in either order, and I wouldn't argue with it. 

That's especially true if you just compare their two nuclear performances this weekend. By the box score, they almost played an identical game. Both went 16 of 21 with three touchdowns in their playoff debut, and Stroud only edged out Love by two passing yards. They both finished with a 157.2 passer rating, too. 

When you watch each performance on film, though, Love's felt a little different. That's not to take away from Stroud at all. He is — and will continue to be — awesome.

That said, Love handled a little more of the burden of the offense. Love still got some help the way Stroud did, such as on Luke Musgrave's wide-open Y-leak touchdown, but Love also made more insane plays through his own ability. 

Hell, Love kicked off his passing performance with a second-and-13 throw to Romeo Doubs while under pressure. He found Doubs in almost the exact same spot over the middle of the field a couple of drives later to convert a third-and-9, again doing so under pressure. 

Love also threw a rocket to Dontayvion Wicks for a 20-yard touchdown on a red zone post route. 

That doesn't even get to Love's best throw of the day: the three-yard touchdown throw to Doubs. Yes, it was a short pass, but Love had to throw the ball back across his body after moving to his right and thread the ball into a quarter-size window. Love's creativity, aggression, flexibility and outrageous arm talent were all on full display. 

All that praise aside, I'm giving Stroud the edge — for now. Stroud has been more consistent this season and still has had some amazing peaks of his own. Love's extra bit of creativity and his growth curve this season is hard not to fall for, though. 

Either way, Love and Stroud are two of the best young quarterbacks in the league and should be celebrated as such. 

6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Wild-Card Ranking: 8

Try to picture the ideal Jared Goff offensive environment and game script: under-center formations, a heavy dose of the run game, copious intermediate-range passing concepts. That's the tried-and-true Goff formula. 

We've seen that 100 times since he took flight in 2017 with the Sean McVay–led Los Angeles Rams. 

For the most part, that's when Goff was at his best against the Rams on Sunday night. Goff was outstanding when the offense could stay on schedule and dictate the game to the defense. 

With proper protection, Goff was making every throw necessary and putting points on the board. That same old Goff formula was on full display vs. Los Angeles — at least for the first half while the Lions were running the ball well. 

What stood out upon rewatching the game on film is how many throws Goff made on true dropback concepts from shotgun. Granted, this Rams defense isn't a particularly stingy coverage unit, but Goff was still making some tough throws. 

He pinned a hitch route on Amon-Ra St. Brown in tight coverage on third-and-5 in the second quarter, as well as a clutch sail route to St. Brown again on third-and-15 right out of the two-minute warning. Goff even iced the game with a strike to, you guessed it, St. Brown to end the game out of the shotgun. 

If the Lions’ offensive line can keep Goff upright, maybe he can do enough as a shotgun passer to complement his outrageous under-center efficiency and help carry this team further into the postseason. 

7. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Wild-Card Ranking: 9

Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers earned a bye week as the NFC's top seed. Expect Purdy to start hot in the divisional round against a getable Green Bay Packers defense.

8. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Wild-Card Ranking: 12

Gunslinger Baker Mayfield is the best Baker Mayfield. 

Nobody is going to argue Mayfield is a consistent quarterback game to game, but he's been more good than bad this season. And when he's good, Mayfield's aggression and downfield accuracy moves the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense down the field with chunk play after chunk play. 

That was as true against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night as it's been at any point this season. Mayfield was chucking it against the Eagles. He finished the night with an 8.9 average depth of target, more than a yard over the NFL average and slightly over his own 8.6 average depth of target, which ranked fifth in the league. 

Almost half of Mayfield's attempts were at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, per TruMedia. He was ripping seam throws to Cade Otton, nailing Mike Evans on dig routes, dropping deep throws in the bucket and even serving up game-ending pop flies under pressure. 

Even with a few frustrating drops from his pass-catchers, Mayfield never stopped firing. That's the mentality he must play with if the Buccaneers want to make an unexpected run in the playoffs.

Tags: Baker Mayfield, Baltimore Ravens, Brock Purdy See More

Derrik Klassen

Film Analyst

Derrik Klassen is an NFL and NFL Draft film analyst with a particular interest in quarterbacks. Klassen's work is also featured on Bleacher Report and Reception Perception.

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